stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, LP08 said: I don’t think Harrisburg is getting a foot on this run like the RGEM. We don't want them to get a foot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why does it feel like we go through this more often now? Seems like every threat we're bemoaning different solutions still being out there 48 hours before. What psu said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: it's a nice run. It's a hold. GFS says F Canada Yeah. It’s a good one. Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Preach I mean realistically I’d trade .6” QPF with cold thermals and maximize ratios over 1” QPF but 20 miles from the big drop off and 10:1’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The cold air keeps getting slightly delayed each run if you toggle back which should be a bit of concern along i95 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like 4 to 6 ish. Pull up the WB pretty maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The gfs actually shifted SE it looks like? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Within 50 hrs. the NAM seems to hone in. Beyond 50 hrs. it is useless. The 3 k NAM has me at 3.2" at 18z.................... 0 before.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 At 48 hours the gfs has the low in the same location and the same mslp (1002) along the NC VA border. And I mean exact to the mile same location. Crazy consistency run to run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, T. August said: The gfs actually shifted SE it looks like? Track is almost identical. Precip maybe 10 miles SE. but it def did not continue the NW trend which is what we’re all rooting stops. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Here tale your pick 6 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: This run looks potentially mixy until 7 or 8 am. But the column is fine after that. Yeah it eventually gets here but it’s been slowing down each run and we don’t usually do well w cold chasing precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Here tale your pick I'll add the Kuchera and 10:1, multiply by 2, and take that. Kthxbai. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 FWIW, just watched Bernie Rayno’s video. He is a Euro guy but he said thinks the GFS has the right idea for this storm. Thinks CMC is too far west and Euro too weak. He also mentioned that he thinks the midweek deal is a Virginia and south threat just due to the extreme cold air. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: One scenario i can see playing out is 2 precip maxes, one along the blue ridge NE into central maryland as the low gets going... and the other that starts E of DC into NYC once the coastal strengthens and 850 low closes off. Maybe the canadian models are latching onto the first precip max and extending it NE while leaving the S & E warmer and wetter, and the colder weaker more S/E solutions are conversely under-doing the NW precip max. As much flak the GFS gets these days, it did pretty well in the short range <48 hr in the last storm IIRC. So now maybe we are starting to get those mesoscale details into better focus where the secondary NW max gets 3-6/4-8+ of powder while the other qpf band along DC-Balt-Philly-NYC gets 3-5" of wet snow. As Chill would say, just spitballing. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: I'll add the Kuchera and 10:1, multiply by 2, and take that. Kthxbai. Still would be the same here, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, stormy said: Within 50 hrs. the NAM seems to hone in. Beyond 50 hrs. it is useless. The 3 k NAM has me at 3.2" at 18z.................... 0 before.................. the last storm (Jan 6) it was spot on at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 21 minutes ago, stormy said: Within 50 hrs. the NAM seems to hone in. Beyond 50 hrs. it is useless. The 3 k NAM has me at 3.2" at 18z.................... 0 before.................. I am not saying it is right by any means, but if you are looking for ways to fail, the NAM does look a lot like the Euro Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: One scenario i can see playing out is 2 precip maxes, one along the blue ridge NE into central maryland as the low gets going... and the other that starts E of DC into NYC once the coastal strengthens and 850 low closes off. Maybe the canadian models are latching onto the first precip max and extending it NE while leaving the S & E warmer and wetter, and the colder weaker more S/E solutions are conversely under-doing the NW precip max. As much flak the GFS gets these days, it did pretty well in the short range <48 hr in the last storm IIRC. So now maybe we are starting to get those mesoscale details into better focus where the secondary NW max gets 3-6/4-8+ of powder while the other qpf band along DC-Balt-Philly-NYC gets 3-5" of wet snow. As Chill would say, just spitballing. Not a fan of those scenarios for my yard...Baltimore city can sometimes get stuck between the two, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Not a fan of those scenarios for my yard...Baltimore city can sometimes get stuck between the two, smh if it makes you feel any better, I might be the one who gets stuck between the two. Especially if the storm shifts more NW than the GFS/NAM are saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Gefs mean is pretty much identical to 12z. Still some god-awful interior misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 31 minutes ago, rjvanals said: The cold air keeps getting slightly delayed each run if you toggle back which should be a bit of concern along i95 This is my fear. Models always over do the speed of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 FWIW, 18z UKIE shifted NW with the snow totals and track of the SLP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, 18z UKIE shifted NW with the snow totals and track of the SLP Yeah it’s I-95 and west special puts more credence to the RGEM idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, 18z UKIE shifted NW with the snow totals and track of the SLP 18z 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 25 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: the last storm (Jan 6) it was spot on at 84 hours. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Yeah it’s I-95 and west special puts more credence to the RGEM idea You'll be in Potomac for this one, won't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here tale your pick Either one is reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nobody's stealing my joy! I'm cool with 2" that will turn into a glacier. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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