1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[Deck Pic]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Is everyone really giving up on an event the euro/gfs/3k are showing as cold and all snow for dc because of the icon and rgem? Of course it’s possible it plays out like that but I wouldn’t bet the house on those two models. 

no.  The RGEM shouldnt be moving the needle at all yet imo.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’m with PSU. I want to see what the gfs shows here in a few but it moved a lot wetter and obviously a good bit NW overnight. The blend is probably a fall line and N/W theme 

 

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

i'm getting snow for DC over on sv.  not sure if its a kuchera thing?  10:1 from 11 to 5

It’s a mistake it’s like 38 degrees on the RGEM.   RGEM shows like triple the QPF of the euro and also like a line of almost thunderstorms during event.  It feels very outlier ish to me. 

[WxUSAF]

If you precisely believe the precipitation types on TT, RGEM gives me 14 seconds of snow at the very end.  Nothing south of me and not much north of me until you west of the Catoctins or north of the M/D line.

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

 

It’s a mistake it’s like 38 degrees on the RGEM.   RGEM shows like triple the QPF of the euro and also like a line of almost thunderstorms during event.  It feels very outlier ish to me. 

word.  i don't have good rgem maps.  

[Deck Pic]

in 10-15 min we'll know the GFS solution

[stormy]

The NAM 12 k is finally coming on board after total blindness.    Now, 2" for me after a long run of 0.   Of course, this is the NAM.

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

 

It’s a mistake it’s like 38 degrees on the RGEM.   RGEM shows like triple the QPF of the euro and also like a line of almost thunderstorms during event.  It feels very outlier ish to me. 

Yeah it has a 993 over the chessie, no other model has a low in that spot, but also they don’t have the low that intense. ICON was about 2mb stronger w/the SLP vs 12z

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

in 10-15 min we'll know the GFS solution

Yeah I mean I think in any marginal temp set up of course fall line and NW does better but I see no reason to punt this event yet.  Even if it’s just an inch or two I’d love that before the Siberian express.  

[Warm Nose]

Thread Mood:

[stormtracker]

GFS a 'runnin

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS a 'runnin

Hope it doesn’t pull a hammy 

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Hope it doesn’t pull a hammy 

Hope not either.   It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle.  Like converge on something dammit.  This is crazy this close to game time.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Hope not either.   It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle.  Like converge on something dammit.  This is crazy this close to game time.

Precip to begin in about 42 hours on some models 

[stormtracker]

So far, GFS ain't budging and almost carbon copy of 12z.   Not at the money panels yet tho, so...

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Hope not either.   It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle.  Like converge on something dammit.  This is crazy this close to game time.

I keep expecting (maybe just hoping) they meet in the middle but for the last 24 hours the rgem has stayed put and everything else has slowly tended toward it. Of course I am not saying that continues but I’ll feel a lot better when I see the rgem shift 20 miles or more southeast. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Hope not either.   It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle.  Like converge on something dammit.  This is crazy this close to game time.

Why does it feel like we go through this more often now? Seems like every threat we're bemoaning different solutions still being out there 48 hours before. 

[stormtracker]

Same start time..like noon?  12z has precip over us.  This doesn't look like it's gonna be RGEM esque

[stormtracker]

Some light to moderate over us at 15z

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why does it feel like we go through this more often now? Seems like every threat we're bemoaning different solutions still being out there 48 hours before. 

It’s always been this way except for rare examples when we have a stable blocking pattern to lock in major features and an extremely amplified storm so models can easily pick up on it. The other 90% of the time we do this and act like it’s unusual.  Why we forget that this is how it is and 48 hours out is still long enough for major changes is beyond me. 

[stormtracker]

Looking good so far...nice stripe of heavy over us at 21z.  no thermal issues

[clskinsfan]

It is maybe just a touch slower this run. But it looks really good. 

[stormtracker]

it's a nice run.  It's a hold.  GFS says F Canada

[LP08]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looking good so far...nice stripe of heavy over us at 21z.  no thermal issues

I don’t think Harrisburg is getting a foot on this run like the RGEM.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looking good so far...nice stripe of heavy over us at 21z.  no thermal issues

Preach 

[stormtracker]

Just now, LP08 said:

I don’t think Harrisburg is getting a foot on this run like the RGEM.

We don't want them to get a foot

[Deck Pic]

super quick mover.  We're done around 5 pm

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why does it feel like we go through this more often now? Seems like every threat we're bemoaning different solutions still being out there 48 hours before. 

What psu said

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

it's a nice run.  It's a hold.  GFS says F Canada

Yeah.  It’s a good one.  Thank you sir. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Preach 

I mean realistically I’d trade .6” QPF with cold thermals and maximize ratios over 1” QPF but 20 miles from the big drop off and 10:1’s

[clskinsfan]