Terpeast Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 One of the two model camps is going to cave dramatically. I think I know which to put my money on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Interstate said: You should be loving life with this run. Meh I’d like more cushion to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Deck Pic said: what model is that? Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: One of the two model camps is going to cave dramatically. I think I know which to put my money on. I think the RGEM is going to cave, but I think the end result is somewhere between its most amplified solution and the consensus of everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: scary for some of us... Welp...1/6 for south, 1/19 for north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I think the RGEM is going to cave, but I think the end result is somewhere between its most amplified solution and the consensus of everything else. Never seen ANY model have so many runs in a row and have the r/s line not move more than a couple of miles from the first run to the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Is everyone really giving up on an event the euro/gfs/3k are showing as cold and all snow for dc because of the icon and rgem? Of course it’s possible it plays out like that but I wouldn’t bet the house on those two models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Never seen ANY model have so many runs in a row and have the r/s line not move more than a couple of miles from the first run to the last. I’m with PSU. I want to see what the gfs shows here in a few but it moved a lot wetter and obviously a good bit NW overnight. The blend is probably a fall line and N/W theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Never seen ANY model have so many runs in a row and have the r/s line not move more than a couple of miles from the first run to the last. Euro AI hasn’t moved much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I’m with PSU. I want to see what the gfs shows here in a few but it moved a lot wetter and obviously a good bit NW overnight. The blend is probably a fall line and N/W theme 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: i'm getting snow for DC over on sv. not sure if its a kuchera thing? 10:1 from 11 to 5 It’s a mistake it’s like 38 degrees on the RGEM. RGEM shows like triple the QPF of the euro and also like a line of almost thunderstorms during event. It feels very outlier ish to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 If you precisely believe the precipitation types on TT, RGEM gives me 14 seconds of snow at the very end. Nothing south of me and not much north of me until you west of the Catoctins or north of the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The NAM 12 k is finally coming on board after total blindness. Now, 2" for me after a long run of 0. Of course, this is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: It’s a mistake it’s like 38 degrees on the RGEM. RGEM shows like triple the QPF of the euro and also like a line of almost thunderstorms during event. It feels very outlier ish to me. Yeah it has a 993 over the chessie, no other model has a low in that spot, but also they don’t have the low that intense. ICON was about 2mb stronger w/the SLP vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: in 10-15 min we'll know the GFS solution Yeah I mean I think in any marginal temp set up of course fall line and NW does better but I see no reason to punt this event yet. Even if it’s just an inch or two I’d love that before the Siberian express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Thread Mood: 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 GFS a 'runnin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS a 'runnin Hope it doesn’t pull a hammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: Hope it doesn’t pull a hammy Hope not either. It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle. Like converge on something dammit. This is crazy this close to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Hope not either. It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle. Like converge on something dammit. This is crazy this close to game time. Precip to begin in about 42 hours on some models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 So far, GFS ain't budging and almost carbon copy of 12z. Not at the money panels yet tho, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Hope not either. It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle. Like converge on something dammit. This is crazy this close to game time. I keep expecting (maybe just hoping) they meet in the middle but for the last 24 hours the rgem has stayed put and everything else has slowly tended toward it. Of course I am not saying that continues but I’ll feel a lot better when I see the rgem shift 20 miles or more southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Hope not either. It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle. Like converge on something dammit. This is crazy this close to game time. Why does it feel like we go through this more often now? Seems like every threat we're bemoaning different solutions still being out there 48 hours before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Same start time..like noon? 12z has precip over us. This doesn't look like it's gonna be RGEM esque 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Some light to moderate over us at 15z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why does it feel like we go through this more often now? Seems like every threat we're bemoaning different solutions still being out there 48 hours before. It’s always been this way except for rare examples when we have a stable blocking pattern to lock in major features and an extremely amplified storm so models can easily pick up on it. The other 90% of the time we do this and act like it’s unusual. Why we forget that this is how it is and 48 hours out is still long enough for major changes is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looking good so far...nice stripe of heavy over us at 21z. no thermal issues 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 It is maybe just a touch slower this run. But it looks really good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 it's a nice run. It's a hold. GFS says F Canada 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Looking good so far...nice stripe of heavy over us at 21z. no thermal issues I don’t think Harrisburg is getting a foot on this run like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Looking good so far...nice stripe of heavy over us at 21z. no thermal issues Preach 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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