stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 3k perfect for us Thought it looked good for all tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The precip shield on the 12k is straight up stupid. There’s no way that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Essentially over here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Afternoon disco from LWX has important note about EURO AI SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An Arctic Front will reside in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday as kind of the middle piece of this leader-follower system. The leader system that impacted the area Saturday will leave the trailing cold front behind, but also bring the cold for the Sunday event. For the follower - the potential snow event across the area Sunday - models historically have issues with these set-ups. This case is no different with considerable differences in model guidance just ~40 hours out from the onset of precipitation. Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio Valley Saturday night. A piece of energy will move ahead of this feature being one of the parts of this storm. The region will reside in the left exit region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is favorable for upward motion, as indicated by several methods including the long Q-vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands across the area as well. It should be noted the differences between global models/ensembles. The CMCE/GEFS are notably more bullish than the EPS. Regional models split differences among themselves. Of note, the AI EURO has been consistent with 0.2-0.4" of QPF across the area for several days. This model tends to overdo the broader field of QPF at further lead times, but this signal is noteworthy based on latest verification research. Given the potential for 5" of snow (6" in the mountains), have coordinated with neighboring offices and WPC in a Winter Storm Watch for climo favored areas. Have concerns about mixing further southeast towards the metros coupled with lower ratios. The current snow forecast will likely change, so please monitor the latest forecast for updates. I got a feeling that there will be some pushback on AI model because it’s going to display the consistency of forecasting that all the rest never have . Taking away the ever changing unpredictability won’t be well received by some because the necessity of deciphering the situation will decrease via the consistency of the AI . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3k looks really similar to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 3k is good... calling BS on the SW region snow cutoff that NWS is showing. Just not supported in any guidance beyond the way-amped stuff. Is a flag that the 10:1 sometimes better than kuchera down there. Can you post qpf? Not at a computer to look myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Its pretty much in line with the Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, mappy said: Can you post qpf? Not at a computer to look myself. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 48 minutes ago, Buffalo Transplant said: For my sake I hope you are! I would like to wish you a lot of luck....................... just not this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: But is the 3K good? Haven’t heard about the 3K Mets say it is better than 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 47 minutes ago, mappy said: GO BILLS *ducks for cover* GO LIONS. Stands here strongly. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Thank so much! Looks good for everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: You are acting a bit jumpy....we may have to rename you psuicon My thoughts on our most likely bust scenario have been documented. They aren’t based on any one run and especially not the 12k NAM or 48 hour HRRR both of which are garbage. But there is also the rgem and quite a few gfs ens members showing a NW track. It’s a possibility. I don’t like seeing anything that shows my fail scenario after I draw it up. That said we are not resigned to that fate. If we were I wouldn’t be “worried” I’d have accepted it and be cracking jokes about it. I worry when we have a legit chance to win and I don’t want it to slip away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, ravensrule said: GO LIONS. Stands here strongly. You’re annoying but if the Commanders were to actually win, I’d be quite surprised. Shocked. Maybe even die. I don’t expect them to win lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I also think that when the cold air plunge begins that 0.1” won’t equate to 0.75-1” but rather to close to 2”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Yay for winter storm watches! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, mappy said: You’re annoying but if the Commanders were to actually win, I’d be quite surprised. Shocked. Maybe even die. I don’t expect them to win lol I’m rooting for you ETA: detroits defense is a mess it’s not impossible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, mappy said: You’re annoying but if the Commanders were to actually win, I’d be quite surprised. Shocked. Maybe even die. I don’t expect them to win lol My father once told me people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m rooting for you I am not rooting for you…r Eagles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m rooting for you ETA: detroits defense is a mess it’s not impossible. I was until her nasty comment. GO LIONS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Imho, Nam will fill in the gaps here come 0z and it will look like the Gfs. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011718&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: GO LIONS. Stands here strongly. Don't sleep on the Commanders and JD5 - you're probably the better team, but that doesn't seem to phase us when the chips are down! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, mappy said: You’re annoying but if the Commanders were to actually win, I’d be quite surprised. Shocked. Maybe even die. I don’t expect them to win lol Me either. And thats OK. First year HC, GM and QB. This season is a success regardless of what happens tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, mappy said: I am not rooting for you…r Eagles If I was you I’d be rooting for the Rams also. For the same reason I am rooting for the Commanders lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ravens vs Eagles should be the only thing people are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: If I was you I’d be rooting for the Rams also. For the same reason I am rooting for the Commanders lol Hahaha yes! You get it lol FWIW I do think Philly will win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, EstorilM said: Don't sleep on the Commanders and JD5 - you're probably the better team, but that doesn't seem to phase us when the chips are down! Lol, I'm a Ravens fan. I could give two shits if the Lions win or lose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I was until her nasty comment. GO LIONS. Chill bruh. I think Baltimore wins lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, mappy said: Chill bruh. I think Baltimore wins lol Lol. I'm all good. I actually like you, unfortunately it's a one way street . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Lol, I'm a Ravens fan. I could give two shits if the Lions win or lose. How many shits if they tie? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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