1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[mitchnick]

48hrs Nam has snow freckles 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam has the low and precip at 39hrs vs nothing at 45 on 12z

It shifted the 540 line from VA beach to DC in 2 runs lol 

[mitchnick]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It shifted the 540 line from VA beach to DC in 2 runs lol 

Still doesn't have it's act together, but getting there.

[mitchnick]

3k OK

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011718&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[clskinsfan]

3K looks good. Cold enough well south of DC

[psuhoffman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Still doesn't have it's act together, but getting there.

Yea but it’s already shifted the heavy snow up onto central PA. Let me clarify. I do not buy the crazy qpf cutoff on the rgem. I don’t think we will actually get nothing if it shifts NW some. But I could definitely see that 6”+ band of snow shift to our NW into PA and we’re left with another minor snow (like 3” maybe) instead.  I’ve seen this type setup so many times. NW is the bigger bust risk even up here.  

[yoda]

I'll take the 3k nam please 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

3k OK

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011718&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

3k can be my therapy session for the afternoon. Looks much better. 
 

WTF do I care about frozen water so much?  I need to do some hypnosis therapy and find out. Seriously. It makes no sense. 

[jaydreb]

Looks like it will be snowing for the Rams-Eagles game at 3pm?

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but it’s already shifted the heavy snow up onto central PA. Let me clarify. I do not buy the crazy qpf cutoff on the rgem. I don’t think we will actually get nothing if it shifts NW some. But I could definitely see that 6”+ band of snow shift to our NW into PA and we’re left with another minor snow (like 3” maybe) instead.  I’ve seen this type setup so many times. NW is the bigger bust risk even up here.  

3k perfect for us

[clskinsfan]

Just now, jaydreb said:

Looks like it will be snowing for the Rams-Eagles game at 3pm?

Yep. And coming down good it looks like. Will be fun to watch. 

[yoda]

Hope I'm reading the model sounding right, but looks like good snow growth and decent DGZ for DC metro on 18z 3k NAM at hr 52?

[NorthArlington101]

3k is good... calling BS on the SW region snow cutoff that NWS is showing. Just not supported in any guidance beyond the way-amped stuff. Is a flag that the 10:1 sometimes better than kuchera down there.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

3k can be my therapy session for the afternoon. Looks much better. 
 

WTF do I care about frozen water so much?  I need to do some hypnosis therapy and find out. Seriously. It makes no sense. 

You are acting a bit jumpy....we may have to rename you psuicon

[Dabuckeyes]

But is the 3K good? Haven’t heard about the 3K

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

3k perfect for us

Thought it looked good for all tbh

[T. August]

The precip shield on the 12k is straight up stupid. There’s no way that verifies.

[mitchnick]

Essentially over here

[WEATHER53]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

Afternoon disco from LWX has important note about EURO AI

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An Arctic Front will reside in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic
Saturday night into Sunday as kind of the middle piece of this
leader-follower system. The leader system that impacted the area
Saturday will leave the trailing cold front behind, but also bring
the cold for the Sunday event. For the follower - the potential snow
event across the area Sunday - models historically have issues
with these set-ups. This case is no different with considerable
differences in model guidance just ~40 hours out from the onset
of precipitation.

Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio
Valley Saturday night. A piece of energy will move ahead of this
feature being one of the parts of this storm. The region will
reside in the left exit region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is
favorable for upward motion, as indicated by several methods
including the long Q-vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands
across the area as well. It should be noted the differences
between global models/ensembles. The CMCE/GEFS are notably more
bullish than the EPS. Regional models split differences among
themselves. Of note, the AI EURO has been consistent with
0.2-0.4" of QPF across the area for several days. This model
tends to overdo the broader field of QPF at further lead times,
but this signal is noteworthy based on latest verification
research.

Given the potential for 5" of snow (6" in the mountains), have
coordinated with neighboring offices and WPC in a Winter Storm Watch
for climo favored areas. Have concerns about mixing further
southeast towards the metros coupled with lower ratios. The current
snow forecast will likely change, so please monitor the latest
forecast for updates.

I got a feeling that there will be some pushback on AI model because it’s going to display the consistency of forecasting that all the rest never have . Taking away the ever changing unpredictability won’t be well received by some because the necessity of deciphering the situation will decrease via the consistency of the AI .

 

 

[psuhoffman]

3k looks really similar to the euro 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

3k is good... calling BS on the SW region snow cutoff that NWS is showing. Just not supported in any guidance beyond the way-amped stuff. Is a flag that the 10:1 sometimes better than kuchera down there.

Can you post qpf? Not at a computer to look myself. 

[clskinsfan]

Its pretty much in line with the Euro now. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, mappy said:

Can you post qpf? Not at a computer to look myself. 

[ravensrule]

48 minutes ago, Buffalo Transplant said:

For my sake I hope you are!

I would like to wish you a lot of luck....................... just not this week. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

But is the 3K good? Haven’t heard about the 3K

Mets say it is better than 12k

[ravensrule]

47 minutes ago, mappy said:

GO BILLS 

 

*ducks for cover*

GO LIONS. Stands here strongly. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Thank so much! Looks good for everyone

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

You are acting a bit jumpy....we may have to rename you psuicon

My thoughts on our most likely bust scenario have been documented. They aren’t based on any one run and especially not the 12k NAM or 48 hour HRRR both of which are garbage. But there is also the rgem and quite a few gfs ens members showing a NW track. It’s a possibility. I don’t like seeing anything that shows my fail scenario after I draw it up. 
 

That said we are not resigned to that fate. If we were I wouldn’t be “worried” I’d have accepted it and be cracking jokes about it. I worry when we have a legit chance to win and I don’t want it to slip away. 

[mappy]

Just now, ravensrule said:

GO LIONS. Stands here strongly. 

You’re annoying but if the Commanders were to actually win, I’d be quite surprised. Shocked. Maybe even die. I don’t expect them to win lol 

[WEATHER53]

I also think that when the cold air plunge begins  that 0.1” won’t equate to 0.75-1” but rather to close to 2”.