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1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

DDweatherman

By DDweatherman,
in Mid Atlantic

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wxmvpete
wxmvpete

My heavy snow discussion tonight went into some of the model differences, the synoptic/mesoscale setup, and how the probabilistic snowfall totals and impact guidance looked as of tonight.  ...Mid

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

I'm telling you guys, when the AI is this locked in, everyone should take note. It's not a true dynamical model that can sway with regular perturbations like a ECMWF/GFS/(Insert Model here), it's basi

stormtracker
stormtracker

Interesting fact: it takes only 3 clicks to ban or delete an account.  Wild.  

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AlexD1990

AlexD1990

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track.

SnowForecast_Jan19_2025_initial.png.4689f2385a4ec2abfb14abdeadf90f3c.png

 

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

MIXING

He put the MIXING over my house :gun_bandana:

 

 

 

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Wxtrix

Wxtrix

Posted
Posted

i’m doubtful, but here it is for my backyard: 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-040-501-503-507-WVZ050>053-055-502>504-506-
180315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.250119T0800Z-250119T2300Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham-
Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern
Fauquier-Western Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-
Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton-
207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to around
  5 or 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northern, northwest, and
  western Virginia, and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&
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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
Just now, Wxtrix said:

i’m doubtful, but here it is for my backyard: 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-040-501-503-507-WVZ050>053-055-502>504-506-
180315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.250119T0800Z-250119T2300Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham-
Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern
Fauquier-Western Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-
Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton-
207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to around
  5 or 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northern, northwest, and
  western Virginia, and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

They are pretty bullish for us. Must be disregarding the drier Euro solution. 

18Z HRRR tracks the low through the Shenandoah Valley into central MD. Glad that model is utter garbage. :)

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

With light snow it will.  During Jan 6 storm with light snow at 29F, plowed sections of parking lots and streets and my shoveled sidewalks and driveway melted that afternoon prior to the late afternoon/evening ULL snow.  Granted, I had episodes of filtered sunlight.  But if we get a .3" qpf storm and warm ground leading in, my expectations are very low.  But, maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised by qpf rates for once.

Because of the  warmth preceding. 

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TSSN+

TSSN+

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

They are pretty bullish for us. Must be disregarding the drier Euro solution. 

18Z HRRR tracks the low through the Shenandoah Valley into central MD. Glad that model is utter garbage. :)

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png

It had the heavy snow in pa for the last system up till like inside 18hrs lol. It’s always too far north at range. 

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track.

SnowForecast_Jan19_2025_initial.png.a7b6b2186ca354cdb6fc90f3a53e5a59.png

 

How much liquid do you think we will have left after temps begin their dramatic drop?

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

With light snow it will.  During Jan 6 storm with light snow at 29F, plowed sections of parking lots and streets and my shoveled sidewalks and driveway melted that afternoon prior to the late afternoon/evening ULL snow.  Granted, I had episodes of filtered sunlight.  But if we get a .3" qpf storm and warm ground leading in, my expectations are very low.  But, maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised by qpf rates for once.

Can you send this to me again Sunday at 6pm and we will see how it turned out ?

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LP08

LP08

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

HRRR LOL

hrrr-ma-refc_ptype-7302400.thumb.png.c6ac751f8b9d6816c6f43588681590bf.png

I guess the RGEM isn't all alone anymore.  Lets just hope this POS is as wrong as it was with the last one at this range! 

It probably is...just saying 

Thunderstorms here? Hah

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track.

SnowForecast_Jan19_2025_initial.png.a7b6b2186ca354cdb6fc90f3a53e5a59.png

 

Well damn. I’m shocked. I was for sure we would be in Ellinwood gray.   It’s a great day. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Afternoon disco from LWX has important note about EURO AI 

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An Arctic Front will reside in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic
Saturday night into Sunday as kind of the middle piece of this
leader-follower system. The leader system that impacted the area
Saturday will leave the trailing cold front behind, but also bring
the cold for the Sunday event. For the follower - the potential snow
event across the area Sunday - models historically have issues
with these set-ups. This case is no different with considerable
differences in model guidance just ~40 hours out from the onset
of precipitation.

Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio
Valley Saturday night. A piece of energy will move ahead of this
feature being one of the parts of this storm. The region will
reside in the left exit region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is
favorable for upward motion, as indicated by several methods
including the long Q-vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands
across the area as well. It should be noted the differences
between global models/ensembles. The CMCE/GEFS are notably more
bullish than the EPS. Regional models split differences among
themselves. Of note, the AI EURO has been consistent with
0.2-0.4" of QPF across the area for several days. This model
tends to overdo the broader field of QPF at further lead times,
but this signal is noteworthy based on latest verification
research.

Given the potential for 5" of snow (6" in the mountains), have
coordinated with neighboring offices and WPC in a Winter Storm Watch
for climo favored areas. Have concerns about mixing further
southeast towards the metros coupled with lower ratios. The current
snow forecast will likely change, so please monitor the latest
forecast for updates.
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