stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 29 minutes ago, mappy said: why even give him the satisfaction of a response. let him go talk to his fb groupies about how much everything sucks. Well, I thought he wasn't reading the model correctly first. Then he came back with 0.3 inches as "Dry" and I realized he's just being dumb and/or rage baiting. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 15 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Euro blipping a warning light for the NW side of the snow. That cutoff in my neck of the woods is brutal. NW side is high potential either way... Something to note, both the GFS and Euro have had that duel band structure and I believe that will be true...but the Euro is keying the heavier snowfall in the NW band, and I also believe that is true. Historically the highest snowfall with these amplifying progressive boundary waves is near the NW edge of the snowfall *usually somewhere near the -8 850 isotherm) with another max closer to the R/S thermal boundary. A lot of the time that NW max area ends up further NW than guidance suggested heading in...but if you end up NW of that band it can drop of real quick to almost nothing. Being on the NW side is playing with fire in these but sometimes you get the jack that way also. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 29 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Euro seemed a bit delayed with start time compared to gfs? . UKIE was like that also. Not really a bad thing as it allows more cold air to get in before the snow starts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Paleocene said: You will get 1/2 that qpf in the desert There is zero doubt in my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, I thought he wasn't reading the model correctly first. Then he came back with 0.3 inches as "Dry" and I realized he's just being dumb and/or rage baiting. .3 inches is dry. Not sure why everyone is taking shots at me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 35 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’d take the under on kuchera ratios along i-95 and just NW, but could be right for the elevations. Feeling 2-4” areawide, 3-6+ well nw (cacotins and mount psu, m/d line) These high ratios probably result of bitter cold air beginning to pour in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Just now, WEATHER53 said: These high ratios probably result of bitter cold air beginning to pour in After the first couple hours when the low passes east of our longitude, I'd bet ratios would improve. That being said, 850's aren't necessarily bad for ratios better than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 At least we don’t have to worry about too amped on the EPS. A lot of weak pos misses to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Ji said: .3 inches is dry. Not sure why everyone is taking shots at me. It don’t feel so great do it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, T. August said: At least we don’t have to worry about too amped on the EPS. A lot of weak pos misses to the SE. An hour 48 model war with GEFS N/W and EPS a bit to the S/E, ops in between which aren't that far from each other in ground truth (evolution wise). QPF is still a big discrepancy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: After the first couple hours when the low passes east of our longitude, I'd bet ratios would improve. That being said, 850's aren't necessarily bad for ratios better than 10:1. Think we will go from like 30-32 at 3pm ish Sunday to 20-25 by 6/7 pm so that will boost ratios and I’m even going to throw out some squalliness as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 CMC Ensemble is better than the op. More southern solutions I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This winter is slowly moving up the rankings. We can't seem to escape snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, Ji said: .3 inches is dry. Not sure why everyone is taking shots at me. Because we like snow and the Euro shows 2 to 4 inches and you're on here taking a raunchy shit on that? 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 I'm good with 3-5" baseline if you compromise the good and bad solutions for MBY. I'm good with that, and I'll be happier than a fly on shit if we hit the boom scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I'm good with 3-5" baseline if you compromise the good and bad solutions for MBY. I'm good with that, and I'll be happier than a fly on shit if we hit the boom scenarios. I think the lower qpf is more a product of the quick-hitting nature of the storm more so than it being just a bunch of snow grains falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I mean playoff football, good food/drinks, a raging fireplace and few inches of snow falling sounds like a perfect January Sunday to me. 17 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Right now think I’d go: DC/PG/I66 corridor/Rt50 corridor/2-4” Baltimore/HoCo/HarCo/MoCo/Loudon 3-5” Frederick/Carroll/N Balt County/York PA 4-8” 22 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I mean playoff football, good food/drinks, a raging fireplace and few inches of snow falling sounds like a perfect January Sunday to me. And no work on Monday! For many of us. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Right now think I’d go: DC/PG/I66 corridor/Rt50 corridor/2-4” Baltimore/HoCo/HarCo/MoCo/Loudon 3-5” Frederick/Carroll/N Balt County/York PA 4-8” Dry af. But seriously, that's a reasonable outlook given what all the guidance says. I think too many here get all giddy and excited when one particular model run shows a lot more snow. Then another model cuts back on that somewhat but still quite respectable, and people go nuts over how awful it is. Totally understand getting stoked when we see a lot more from one model, but have to keep this in perspective. Really all along, this wasn't going to be some huge event in this area, but still a solid amount followed by Arctic cold. Again, expectations and all that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Right now think I’d go: DC/PG/I66 corridor/Rt50 corridor/2-4” Baltimore/HoCo/HarCo/MoCo/Loudon 3-5” Frederick/Carroll/N Balt County/York PA 4-8” Can you be more specific? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, aldie 22 said: Can you be more specific? You mean...how much for Short Pump??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 AI as much. Again, gut says a hair more qpf. Might be a slight NW shift in area of qpf, but not much if at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Can you be more specific? 4.2-4.4” for you. 3.1-3.4”for Ji 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: You mean...how much for Short Pump??? No i mean the intersection of 15 at Gilberts Corner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Right now think I’d go: DC/PG/I66 corridor/Rt50 corridor/2-4” Baltimore/HoCo/HarCo/MoCo/Loudon 3-5” Frederick/Carroll/N Balt County/York PA 4-8” amazing. thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro/Euro Ai/GFS would imply low end warning event from I-95 and NW. Maybe we see watches this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ505-506-526-180315- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.250119T1100Z-250120T0200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- 207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to around 5 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, north-central, and northern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro/Euro Ai/GFS would imply low end warning event from I-95 and NW. Maybe we see watches this evening? How about now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I want a watch, but think that zone makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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