1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[ravensrule]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

dry af

You’re truly mentally ill. It may be time to seek professional help. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

Euro seemed a bit delayed with start time compared to gfs?


.

Get yourself something to eat, change your screen name, then check back for the AI. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, WVclimo said:

Those Kuchera ratios N Arlington posted are 16:1 to 18:1 out here.  

I’d take the under on kuchera ratios along i-95 and just NW, but could be right for the elevations. 

Feeling 2-4” areawide, 3-6+ well nw (cacotins and mount psu, m/d line)

[Imgoinhungry]

Get yourself something to eat, change your screen name, then check back for the AI. 

But I can’t feed on the powerless, when my cups already overfilled?


.

[paxpatriot]

Euro blipping a warning light for the NW side of the snow. That cutoff in my neck of the woods is brutal.

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Those Kuchera ratios N Arlington posted are 16:1 to 18:1 out here.  

We know that ain't happening lol.

If we end up with .25 liquid I'm thinking 3 inches maybe at best.

I'm starting to think 3" is my bar.

I don't see the Canadians being correct.

Not after the 1/6 storm lol.

[wxdude64]

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Those Kuchera ratios N Arlington posted are 16:1 to 18:1 out here.  

 

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I’d take the under on kuchera ratios along i-95 and just NW, but could be right for the elevations. 

Feeling 2-4” areawide, 3-6+ well nw (cacotins and mount psu, m/d line)

I'm thinking the same, a bit aggressive with 16/18 to 1 (although I did pull a 17 to 1 on last small system 2.2 on 0.13 liquid). 12/14 to 1 would be more than ideal. 2-4 in DC area and 3-6 with MAYBE a jackpot 7 or 7.5 in a couple of spots. 

[WesternFringe]

1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

But I can’t feed on the powerless, when my cups already overfilled?


.

But you don't mind stealing bread from the mouths of decadence...

Back to the storm, after the 12z suite looks like 3-6" for most with booms up to 8" and busts down to 1" possible forum-wide.  Hopefully AI comes in juicy in about an hour!

[nw baltimore wx]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Get yourself something to eat, change your screen name, then check back for the AI. 

I'm not sure if you knew that he meant snow start time on Sunday. 

[Interstate]

I liked it better when the EURO started at 1AM/1PM

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I liked it better when the EURO started at 1AM/1PM

Why?

[Interstate]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Why?

Now we have to wait until 3:30 ish for the next model run.

[EastCoast NPZ]

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

We know that ain't happening lol.

If we end up with .25 liquid I'm thinking 3 inches maybe at best.

I'm starting to think 3" is my bar.

I don't see the Canadians being correct.

Not after the 1/6 storm lol.

Not to mention this is falling in the afternoon with max solar insolation.  .3" QPF, even if we get it, is going to be a very minor event.  Honestly, not getting the enthusiasm for this system.  But, as always, hoping for the best.

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Not to mention this is falling in the afternoon with max solar insolation.  .3" QPF, even if we get it, is going to be a very minor event.  Honestly, not getting the enthusiasm for this system.  But, as always, hoping for the best.

You will get 1/2 that qpf in the desert

[DDweatherman]

13 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Euro blipping a warning light for the NW side of the snow. That cutoff in my neck of the woods is brutal.

I'm not actually buying that shield. I think it'll be a decently wide QPF shield. 

[stormtracker]

29 minutes ago, mappy said:

why even give him the satisfaction of a response. let him go talk to his fb groupies about how much everything sucks. 

Well, I thought he wasn't reading the model correctly first.  Then he came back with 0.3 inches as "Dry" and I realized he's just being dumb and/or rage baiting. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Euro blipping a warning light for the NW side of the snow. That cutoff in my neck of the woods is brutal.

NW side is high potential either way... 

Something to note, both the GFS and Euro have had that duel band structure and I believe that will be true...but the Euro is keying the heavier snowfall in the NW band, and I also believe that is true.  Historically the highest snowfall with these amplifying progressive boundary waves is near the NW edge of the snowfall *usually somewhere near the -8 850 isotherm) with another max closer to the R/S thermal boundary.  A lot of the time that NW max area ends up further NW than guidance suggested heading in...but if you end up NW of that band it can drop of real quick to almost nothing.  Being on the NW side is playing with fire in these but sometimes you get the jack that way also.  

[clskinsfan]

29 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Euro seemed a bit delayed with start time compared to gfs?


.

UKIE was like that also. Not really a bad thing as it allows more cold air to get in before the snow starts. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

9 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

You will get 1/2 that qpf in the desert

There is zero doubt in my mind.

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, I thought he wasn't reading the model correctly first.  Then he came back with 0.3 inches as "Dry" and I realized he's just being dumb and/or rage baiting. 

.3 inches is dry. Not sure why everyone is taking shots at me. 

[WEATHER53]

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’d take the under on kuchera ratios along i-95 and just NW, but could be right for the elevations. 

Feeling 2-4” areawide, 3-6+ well nw (cacotins and mount psu, m/d line)

These high ratios probably result of bitter cold air beginning to pour in 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

These high ratios probably result of bitter cold air beginning to pour in 

After the first couple hours when the low passes east of our longitude, I'd bet ratios would improve. That being said, 850's aren't necessarily bad for ratios better than 10:1.

[T. August]

At least we don’t have to worry about too amped on the EPS. A lot of weak pos misses to the SE.

[WEATHER53]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

.3 inches is dry. Not sure why everyone is taking shots at me. 

It don’t feel so great do it???

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

At least we don’t have to worry about too amped on the EPS. A lot of weak pos misses to the SE.

An hour 48 model war with GEFS N/W and EPS a bit to the S/E, ops in between which aren't that far from each other in ground truth (evolution wise). QPF is still a big discrepancy. 

[WEATHER53]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

After the first couple hours when the low passes east of our longitude, I'd bet ratios would improve. That being said, 850's aren't necessarily bad for ratios better than 10:1.

Think we will go from like  30-32 at 3pm ish Sunday to 20-25 by 6/7 pm so that will boost ratios and I’m even going to throw out some squalliness as possible 

[clskinsfan]

CMC Ensemble is better than the op. More southern solutions I suppose.

[87storms]

This winter is slowly moving up the rankings.  We can't seem to escape snow.

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

.3 inches is dry. Not sure why everyone is taking shots at me. 

Because we like snow and the Euro shows 2 to 4 inches and you're on here taking a raunchy shit on that?

[DDweatherman]

I'm good with 3-5" baseline if you compromise the good and bad solutions for MBY. I'm good with that, and I'll be happier than a fly on shit if we hit the boom scenarios.