1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[hstorm]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I dunno, I still see like 15+ that give me accumulating snow.  I don't have access to the members though to toggle with 6z but I'll roll the dice with that. 

Snowfall mean seems a bit south of 6z, but would need to compare the individual members to see if that is skewed by a few big hits/misses.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

You couldn't wait to pull that one out, could you? 

But yeah...it's annoying, but If the Euro holds, I dunno man

Why is there still this much difference 48 and less hours out form a storm is getting frustrating. 

[WVclimo]

I don't know if I've ever got 10" of snow at 34 degrees like the Canadian shows.  Maybe November 1987.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, hstorm said:

Snowfall mean seems a bit south of 6z, but would need to compare the individual members to see if that is skewed by a few big hits/misses.

I prefer checking the median over the mean. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, hstorm said:

Snowfall mean seems a bit south of 6z, but would need to compare the individual members to see if that is skewed by a few big hits/misses.

You can see the 3” probs shrank some south and Increased north. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, hstorm said:

Snowfall mean seems a bit south of 6z, but would need to compare the individual members to see if that is skewed by a few big hits/misses.

The probability of a 4 inch snow in DC went from 32%to 35% and the probability of a 1 inch snow went from 72% to 100% from 6z to 12z.  

[WesternFringe]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Actually worse for the cities. Many members like the cmc and snow is much more NW 

 

 

Ensembles aren't as useful at these lead times (<36 hours here).  Ops outperform due to higher resolution.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Add the UK to the list of models that says don't worry about being too amped.

Edit: It actually trended south from 6z.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Why is there still this much difference 48 and less hours out form a storm is getting frustrating. 

 

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

i cant see the euro going from snow to rain so close to the storm man...i mean it starts in 36 hours or so right?

It really is such a weird situation we're in.   Especially this close in.  I mean, there are usually some model differences, but this scattershot is wild.   Models running the gamut, from damn near nothing, to warning criteria, to a rainstorm all the way up to Mitch and co. within 48 hours of a storm.  Crazy times.

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, yoda said:

Don't bother with the 12z CMC unless you are in W MD

FYI, once we are inside 72 hours there is really no need to wait for the GGEM, the RGEM is just a higher resolution version of the GGEM.  It's not like the NAM and GFS where they can be crazy different.  The GGEM and RGEM are never that different just the RGEM will show more details...and frankly if they were different you're supposed to use the RGEM once inside range...so once close enough the GGEM is irrelevant.  

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

FYI, once we are inside 72 hours there is really no need to wait for the GGEM, the RGEM is just a higher resolution version of the GGEM.  It's not like the NAM and GFS where they can be crazy different.  The GGEM and RGEM are never that different just the RGEM will show more details...and frankly if they were different you're supposed to use the RGEM once inside range...so once close enough the GGEM is irrelevant.  

I will say, the UK hasn't been awful lately, though it has had a tendency to be underamped rather than its old days of being over. The trend from 12z yday to 0z to 12z today is a major drying & de-amp. Don't know how much I care, but it is noticeable. 

[pazzo83]

18 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

17 with a wind chill of 4 in DC midday Monday for the inauguration.  

it's apparently being moved inside the Capitol (with the "parade" at Cap One) - lol

[NorthArlington101]

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

[WxUSAF]

Ukie is about what my gut says for totals. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3" - 5" then it gets cold again. If we boom, it's 5" - 9", it it busts it's 1" - 3".

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Ukie is about what my gut says for totals. 

10:1, Kuchera, or 86:1? 

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, Interstate said:

@psuhoffmanwould take that run.

 

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Even he is right on the gradient. 

I am right on the 6" line but it has 12" like 30 miles NW of me...and you want to be on the NW side of the heavy snow in these type setups NOT the SE edge so no.  Plus...if I can have my choice I want the whole area to get a hit...it's a little less fun when I am getting snow up here and the rest of the forum is rain because I know everyone else in here is miserable and I'm not going to come in here and be all "look at me I got a ton of snow" when everyone else is sad they had a snowstorm slip away.  Give me the GFS win for all please.  

9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I will say, the UK hasn't been awful lately, though it has had a tendency to be underamped rather than its old days of being over. The trend from 12z yday to 0z to 12z today is a major drying & de-amp. Don't know how much I care, but it is noticeable. 

The UKMET over the years is an example of how h5 verification does not always correlate to being a good model for the specifics of a snowstorm.  The details that lead to the exact amount of snow in your specific yard rely on things that might not be perfectly correlated to the model that is closest at getting 500mb heights correct on a hemispheric scale.  That said...it doesn't jump around any worse than the GFS for example...it just hasn't in my experience over the years...been that much better at predicting snowstorms for our area despite its higher verification scores.  

[psuhoffman]

Regarding the UKMET...in it's defense for years the maps I saw posted here with UKMET snowfall output were counting any kind of frozen precip as snow...which often gave the false impression it was showing more snow or further south when other guidance was north.  That is not the models fault...that is a bad map and user error.  I do not think that is true of the current Pivotal Kuchera maps being shared...they look to have fixed that issue.  

[clskinsfan]

31 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

17 with a wind chill of 4 in DC midday Monday for the inauguration.  

They just announced it is being moved inside the Capitol. UKIE looks decent as well.

[T. August]

As others mentioned, the op gfs is on the southern end in relation to gefs. Looks like zero misses to the SE.

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

It really is such a weird situation we're in.   Especially this close in.  I mean, there are usually some model differences, but this scattershot is wild.   Models running the gamut, from damn near nothing, to warning criteria, to a rainstorm all the way up to Mitch and co. within 48 hours of a storm.  Crazy times.

I think the reason is because when I was looking at the differences last night, even between the most amplified and least (RGEM to NAM) there wasn't all that much difference in terms of major synoptic features...The SW and vort was a little more amplified on the RGEM and the boundary was a little further NW...and that made the difference between some 6-12" snowstorm up into central PA or some weak POS nothing wave sliding southeast of us.  Guidance will struggle more when were talking about discreet features making such a significant difference.  These progressive boundary waves are harder to nail down for guidance in general, but this one seems particularly delicate.  

[DDweatherman]

Well here we are page 29 and needing 29 black from the euro 

[stormtracker]

Somebody do the euro pbp. I’m on a train heading home because apparently the water valve on my washing machine is leaking. “Badly”. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

CMC is pretty brutal.

 

Fuq Canada

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Somebody do the euro pbp. I’m on a train heading home because apparently the water valve on my washing machine is leaking. “Badly”. 

Who is "QB2"? Lol

[NorthArlington101]

im out to 59... little less expansive SE but nobody worried about getting shut out. maybe a little wetter

[Ji]

s/w looks better on Euro so far

[Eskimo Joe]

Someone NW of the mix line will do well. Probably going to be a healthy band of frontogenesis that won't show up until tomorrow afternoon on the meso guidance.

[psuhoffman]

In a meeting, cant do analysis but this is the money panel just came out