Eskimo Joe Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3" - 5" then it gets cold again. If we boom, it's 5" - 9", it it busts it's 1" - 3". 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Just now, WxUSAF said: Ukie is about what my gut says for totals. 10:1, Kuchera, or 86:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 51 minutes ago, Interstate said: @psuhoffmanwould take that run. 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Even he is right on the gradient. I am right on the 6" line but it has 12" like 30 miles NW of me...and you want to be on the NW side of the heavy snow in these type setups NOT the SE edge so no. Plus...if I can have my choice I want the whole area to get a hit...it's a little less fun when I am getting snow up here and the rest of the forum is rain because I know everyone else in here is miserable and I'm not going to come in here and be all "look at me I got a ton of snow" when everyone else is sad they had a snowstorm slip away. Give me the GFS win for all please. 9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I will say, the UK hasn't been awful lately, though it has had a tendency to be underamped rather than its old days of being over. The trend from 12z yday to 0z to 12z today is a major drying & de-amp. Don't know how much I care, but it is noticeable. The UKMET over the years is an example of how h5 verification does not always correlate to being a good model for the specifics of a snowstorm. The details that lead to the exact amount of snow in your specific yard rely on things that might not be perfectly correlated to the model that is closest at getting 500mb heights correct on a hemispheric scale. That said...it doesn't jump around any worse than the GFS for example...it just hasn't in my experience over the years...been that much better at predicting snowstorms for our area despite its higher verification scores. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Regarding the UKMET...in it's defense for years the maps I saw posted here with UKMET snowfall output were counting any kind of frozen precip as snow...which often gave the false impression it was showing more snow or further south when other guidance was north. That is not the models fault...that is a bad map and user error. I do not think that is true of the current Pivotal Kuchera maps being shared...they look to have fixed that issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 31 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 17 with a wind chill of 4 in DC midday Monday for the inauguration. They just announced it is being moved inside the Capitol. UKIE looks decent as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 As others mentioned, the op gfs is on the southern end in relation to gefs. Looks like zero misses to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It really is such a weird situation we're in. Especially this close in. I mean, there are usually some model differences, but this scattershot is wild. Models running the gamut, from damn near nothing, to warning criteria, to a rainstorm all the way up to Mitch and co. within 48 hours of a storm. Crazy times. I think the reason is because when I was looking at the differences last night, even between the most amplified and least (RGEM to NAM) there wasn't all that much difference in terms of major synoptic features...The SW and vort was a little more amplified on the RGEM and the boundary was a little further NW...and that made the difference between some 6-12" snowstorm up into central PA or some weak POS nothing wave sliding southeast of us. Guidance will struggle more when were talking about discreet features making such a significant difference. These progressive boundary waves are harder to nail down for guidance in general, but this one seems particularly delicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Well here we are page 29 and needing 29 black from the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Somebody do the euro pbp. I’m on a train heading home because apparently the water valve on my washing machine is leaking. “Badly”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Interstate said: CMC is pretty brutal. Fuq Canada 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Somebody do the euro pbp. I’m on a train heading home because apparently the water valve on my washing machine is leaking. “Badly”. Who is "QB2"? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 im out to 59... little less expansive SE but nobody worried about getting shut out. maybe a little wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 s/w looks better on Euro so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Someone NW of the mix line will do well. Probably going to be a healthy band of frontogenesis that won't show up until tomorrow afternoon on the meso guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 In a meeting, cant do analysis but this is the money panel just came out 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 dry af 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 At a glance looks very similar to 6z WRT placement of all the features and banding but a little wetter in the main band just NW of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Through 48 this not look at all GGEM like. Colder than previous runs, 25 at 18z Sunday in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Pretty much status quo on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks good to me. I was just hoping it was R/GEM like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Ji said: dry af 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Looks good to me. I was just hoping it was R/GEM like it sucks. QPF is like .3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Read up a few posts friend. Hey Ra**y the Dr King switch is a fine tribute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Could be noise but that looks like a small bump NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro looks fantastic. Snow, no temperature issues. Toss the RGEM/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Ji said: it sucks. QPF is like .3 Hope there’s a 0.00” area over your house since .3” isn’t enough. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 As long as the AI holds or improves, look for the operational to juice up some in future runs, imho. We still have 42-48+hrs before the first flakes start falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: At a glance looks very similar to 6z WRT placement of all the features and banding but a little wetter in the main band just NW of 95 Low end warning even N&W I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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