1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[MDScienceTeacher]

30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Waiting to hear 6z AI is even wetter 

The run to run consistency on the AI for this event is almost astonishing.  I just went back 19 runs and it never waivered. Here is what is what is looked like at 186 hours:

 

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Interstate said:

So Doom and Gloom Friday I see.

I don’t know why either.  I woke up and things looked great at 6z.  I don’t get all the fuss and worry. 

[adelphi_sky]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I don’t know why either.  I woke up and things looked great at 6z.  I don’t get all the fuss and worry. 

Woke up to a nice little surprise. A white dusting. I am keeping hope alive. Clicking my heels three times because I believe. I knew the strip of qpf would fill in. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I don’t know why either.  I woke up and things looked great at 6z.  I don’t get all the fuss and worry. 

The ability to feel satisfied inside is becoming a lost art. I blame tiktok

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The ability to feel satisfied inside is becoming a lost art. I blame tiktok

I blame this Board

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

The run to run consistency on the AI for this event is almost astonishing.  I just went back 19 runs and it never waivered. Here is what is what is looked like at 186 hours:

 

Shall we dub it the new King?

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I don’t know why either.  I woke up and things looked great at 6z.  I don’t get all the fuss and worry. 

Right. And we have an historic cold push on the way. I realize it's 'behind' the system, but the PV flexing S is only going to allow for so much NW 'trend'. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I don’t know why either.  I woke up and things looked great at 6z.  I don’t get all the fuss and worry. 

Yeah this looks great.  We’re getting snow before an arctic blast and there’s snow on the ground. As good as it gets here. 

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I don’t know why either.  I woke up and things looked great at 6z.  I don’t get all the fuss and worry. 

Because of these silly snow maps.  All it takes is one run that shows a 86" hit and THATS what people hold onto for the entire time.  We could see a nice 3-4" snow from this but if the GFS-AIasapbbq shows 12 one time then thats what people expect.  

[TSSN+]

Slightly more qpf than 0z 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I don’t know why either.  I woke up and things looked great at 6z.  I don’t get all the fuss and worry. 

Same...I read through (more like skimmed) back several pages when I got up this morning.  The actual discussion parts sounded pretty darned good to me, so I didn't get all these doom posts.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Shall we dub it the new King?

Perhaps we'll call it the Prince Regent for now, until it proves itself more!

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Slightly more qpf than 0z 

Didn't I say I thought it was a little more, even with those crummy maps? Being a weenie can be rewarding at times! 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Slightly more qpf than 0z 

the AI’s speciality is decidedly not surface temps but people may need to start hoping it’s at least a little wrong… everyone is okay by 7pm which is the best frame for most, though 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Slightly more qpf than 0z 

Beautiful blues right over my house. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

the AI’s speciality is decidedly not surface temps but people may need to start hoping it’s at least a little wrong 

Looks fine to me. 

[Heisy]

Shall we dub it the new King?

This is it’s time to shine. It’s been good before this, but I feel like more people paying attention this go around. It better not let me down.


.

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, that map is complete trash. Why would they put something like that out? It's completely nonsensical and confusing to the public and hurts credibility.

The map itself is fine, it’s the number ranges that are weird and confusing.

[Fozz]

11 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Looks fine to me. 

Just what I was thinking, too. Let’s do this.

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Canadians stopped moving nw with their 6z runs and actually look a touch east from 0z.

We are seeing convergence on the final solution probably.  The most extreme solution rarely wins 100% but my gut was the final solution would be closer to the more amplified solutions than the less and that is bearing out.  I am still more worried about over amplified than under with this but things are converging towards a solution that would be pretty good for places from 95 NW, but I would still feel a lot more comfortable being NW of the fall line with this one.  

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Slightly more qpf than 0z 

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I also like that it is on a holiday so we can enjoy it without worrying about work! 

[DanTheMan]

I saw it asked earlier so apologies if I missed a response, how is it looking for start time Sunday? May need to adjust travel plans in the morning if precip is moving in pre-9am or so

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, DanTheMan said:

I saw it asked earlier so apologies if I missed a response, how is it looking for start time Sunday? May need to adjust travel plans in the morning if precip is moving in pre-9am or so

Some models are by 7am and others hours later. Too early to say for sure.

[Benjamn3]

Oh my sweet summer child. The euro is still King. 
You shall refer to it as, your grace. 
King of the 7 models and first snow. 
 

Winter is coming.

[Heisy]

That ULL in Canada keeps ticking W which is allowing the wave to turn the corner faster


.

[yoda]

I'd love another WSW storm... but I'm fine with another 2" at the least

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

the AI’s speciality is decidedly not surface temps but people may need to start hoping it’s at least a little wrong… everyone is okay by 7pm which is the best frame for most, though 

What’s wrong with it? That’s surface temp at 1pm close to the warmest time of day. All models had this

[stormtracker]

Just now, yoda said:

I'd love another WSW storm... but I'm fine with another 2" at the least

You’ll get your advisory and like it!

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You’ll get your advisory and like it!

Please sir, I want some more