1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

1-6” seems respectable lol

[WxUSAF]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

1-6” seems respectable lol

I seem to be between the <4” and 1-5” zone 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

1-6” seems respectable lol

It's the range map. Typically the ranges are the 1st and 3rd quartile (25th and 75th percentile). I would say 3-6" w/ local to 8" as a good call for a lot of the sub. Likely more 2-5" along and southeast of I-95, but we will see how it shakes out as we get close. 

[H2O]

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

QPF totals for each model IMBY

06z GFS .3   00z Euro AI .55   06z Euro .29   00z GEM .97   06z Icon .27   06z Ukie .39   06z NAM .08

Hoping those Canadians have the right idea 

Avg .30 or so across the models. 1” per tenth and it can be a nice little snow. More QPF the better tho. Go Maple syrup!!  Good for crafting

[mappy]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Avg .30 or so across the models. 1” per tenth and it can be a nice little snow. More QPF the better tho. Go Maple syrup!!  Good for crafting

lol more beehouses, more honey, more mead. 

[osfan24]

23 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

1-6” seems respectable lol

Yeah, that map is complete trash. Why would they put something like that out? It's completely nonsensical and confusing to the public and hurts credibility.

[Interstate]

30 minutes ago, snowfan said:

They are more bullish than me. I usually go with the standard 0-6. 

[Interstate]

I also want to point out that I called this storm back on Jan 8th when @stormtrackerasked when our threat would be. 

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I also want to point out that I called this storm back on Jan 8th when @stormtrackerasked when our threat would be. 

We need redemption then. Forum wide 5" - 9".

[TSSN+]

There’s still like 40-50% of euro eps members showing nothing. For 2 days out I’m tired of these huge differences. 

[Ji]

What is the deal with the euro?

[MillvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

There’s still like 40-50% of euro eps members showing nothing. For 2 days out I’m tired of these huge differences. 

Majority of the ECENS has members in the primary cluster that according to cluster analysis contribute to 41% of the total ensemble suite (ECENS/GEFS/GEPS). Surprisingly, the ECENS is strictly in just two camps; the primary camp with a decent hit and then another with very little. GEFS is sort of similar, although much of the GEFS has something appreciable with only 6% of the members showing very little. GEPS is distributed a bit better than the other two, but still showing 45-50% within the primary camp and 20-25% in the more amped scenario. I think we are approaching a decent consensus at 2 day leads. If the 12z doesn't sway too hard, we should start getting a clearing picture. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

What is the deal with the euro?

Sux

[mitchnick]

Euro operational may be the "superior" model, but that doesn't mean it always gives the superior forecast for any particularlocationat any particulartime. .

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Euro operational may be the "superior" model, but that doesn't mean it always gives the superior forecast.

Waiting to hear 6z AI is even wetter 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Waiting to hear 6z AI is even wetter 

You decide

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

You decide

Hard to tell from Atari maps but looks good 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

You decide

If I'm guessing the scale right... pink is 0.5"+

[T. August]

25 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

There’s still like 40-50% of euro eps members showing nothing. For 2 days out I’m tired of these huge differences. 

Ever since psu brought up a miss to the NW I’ve been looking over even the individual members of ensembles lol. 6z GEFS is a little scary. Quite a few misses that look like worse, drier versions of the Canadian.

[dailylurker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Hard to tell from Atari maps but looks good 

I was gonna say. I'm not trusting anything with maps from the 80's. What does it even show lol

[Heisy]

You decide

Im just NE of Philly, I’m more worried about a rgem solution vs SE. That GEFS run was concerning as well too, there were a lot of NW solutions


.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You decide

That's the 12hr total. But looking at the 6hr maps, I doubt if it's less and gut days a touch more?

[Paleocene]

Anybody got that good national blend thingy?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

If I'm guessing the scale right... pink is 0.5"+

10-25mm quite the range

[mitchnick]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Anybody got that good national blend thingy?

Maker's Mark and Colt 45

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Maker's Mark and Colt 45

Pretty sure some of these models broke into the liquor cabinet. 

[Interstate]

So Doom and Gloom Friday I see.

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Im just NE of Philly, I’m more worried about a rgem solution vs SE. That GEFS run was concerning as well too, there were a lot of NW solutions


.

Canadians stopped moving nw with their 6z runs and actually look a touch east from 0z.

[NorthArlington101]

15 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Anybody got that good national blend thingy?

[peribonca]

Not really a threat until we get a happy hour Nam'ing