1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[stormtracker]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

It scores a coup here and there, but normally it's clueless past maybe 48 hours.   We always remember the times it scored vics. Even though they're not frequent.  I dont really pay attention to it.  I pretty much just hug the euro and hodl every single event

I'm going with the snowiest model.  I'd go with the NOGAPS if it were still around and had us with 6"

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm going with the snowiest model.  I'd go with the NOGAPS if it were still around and had us with 6"

It is still around, just the NAVGEM lol

[Deck Pic]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm going with the snowiest model.  I'd go with the NOGAPS if it were still around and had us with 6"

sometimes it is tempting.  I'd probably look at the NAM 3 days out more if it gave us snowy solutions.  It almost always too far NW and has some warm layer of +7

[NorthArlington101]

ICON less amped - friendlier track for a lot of us

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

It is still around, just the NAVGEM lol

GFS and Euro are the operational models I trust the most.  Or at least I'm more comfortable with.  We know all the biases. east coast snowstorms are not the GFS wheelhouse.  But I'll probably weight this upcoming run more heavily than the Canadian

[stormtracker]

Well, ICON is ok.  Snow for all

[stormtracker]

2 to 4 from what I can see.  GFS, deliver!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

GFS and Euro are the operational models I trust the most.  Or at least I'm more comfortable with.  We know all the biases. east coast snowstorms are not the GFS wheelhouse.  But I'll probably weight this upcoming run more heavily than the Canadian

100%. I don’t care about the charts for verification. They’ve said the UK is the world’s 2nd best model for quite a few years. Though..it has done ok on the last few (was too far south with 1/6, good with the little 1-3” event)

[Kevin Reilly]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going with the snowiest model.  I'd go with the NOGAPS if it were still around and had us with 6"

How about the DGEX model still around?

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Might have to give AI some credence now.

It’s ability to go back to some analog historic data outcomes and blend that in however is best is real and real good. 

[Ji]

2 to 4 from what I can see.  GFS, deliver!

Ugh it’s slipping away

[IUsedToHateCold]

No need to gamble. Just ride the AIFS. We are all getting snow. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

Ugh it’s slipping away

I'm good with 2-4

[Chris78]

Rgem was way too amped for the 1/6 storm.

Was giving me a foot 12 hours before the storm started along the M/D line 

I ended up with 4".

Probably over amped again.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Rgem was way too amped for the 1/6 storm.

Was giving me a foot 12 hours before the storm started along the M/D line 

I ended up with 4".

Probably over amped again.

Anyone want to take bets the gfs jackpots the coast? It’s due to play those games

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm good with 2-4

im glad we have a few over amped models. if we can get a compromise--we could be looking at 3-6 event if everything broke right.

[Deck Pic]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ugh it’s slipping away

i think it'll be like the last two events.  The models will look really pretty and then the storm will underperform.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

im glad we have a few over amped models. if we can get a compromise--we could be looking at 3-6 event if everything broke right.

I think the RGEM is too amped 

[NorthArlington101]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

ICON less amped - friendlier track for a lot of us

kept expecting someone else to post the snow map

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

im glad we have a few over amped models. if we can get a compromise--we could be looking at 3-6 event if everything broke right.

Thats what I’ve been thinking…until the gfs jackpots ocean city or something in a few

[Ji]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

kept expecting someone else to post the snow map

yea thats not a 2-4 map. thats a 1-3 map smh

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

kept expecting someone else to post the snow map

that's your job re: snowfall maps

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

yea thats not a 2-4 map. thats a 1-3 map smh

10:1 map… make your own ratios and it can be whatever you want 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

10:1 map… make your own ratios and it can be whatever you want 

69-86”

[hstorm]

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

10:1 map… make your own ratios and it can be whatever you want 

post the snowiest maps please

 

Just now, hstorm said:

thats more like it

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

im glad we have a few over amped models. if we can get a compromise--we could be looking at 3-6 event if everything broke right.

That would be the Euro AI

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Believe it or not.......AI WETTER!

Start with this 6 hour panel.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200

I believe 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

I believe 

so you finally found a model you like?

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

i think it'll be like the last two events.  The models will look really pretty and then the storm will underperform.  

yea...we used to divide the QPF by 2 right before a storm..why did we stop doing that?