1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[stormtracker]

16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Me and the Met on the QPF desk had lots of conversation while doing the forecast today. We both were taking note over the past several days of the AIFS remaining steadfast. I felt it was necessary to add to the disco as AI has been around for a while now and we have verification scores, and we have enough data to see trends over the past 1-1.5 years. It’s been a great tool to see where things could trend. When the AIFS is locked in, it has been really helpful. It was really good during Hurricane season and so far it’s been decent within mid-latitude evolution. Still not perfect by any means, but it’s very useful in the right scenario. This seems like it has some merit. 
 

I will say that the AI isn’t going to replicate banding structures very well and the QPF output is smoothed compared to dynamical output. That said, I believe it has the right idea and some minor shifts could still occur, but I think we have the main synoptic evolution down. Just down to finer details and thermal profiles. 

Might have to give AI some credence now.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Might have to give AI some credence now.

I keep an eye on it now along with the rest of the suite of models. Been pleasantly surprised at how it’s been performing. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Might have to give AI some credence now.

 Graphically it's fucking beautiful on WB. That precip shield. The shape and symmetry of it makes you think.. KU. But alas we know isn't. It's AI.

[mitchnick]

18z Ukie ensemble meam

[mitchnick]

Believe it or not.......AI WETTER!

Start with this 6 hour panel.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Believe it or not.......AI WETTER!

Start with this 6 hour panel.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200

Sure is a beaut Mitch. Probably 12mm for us. 

[T. August]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Ukie ensemble meam

How much of that is from this evening’s event?

[DarkSharkWX]

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, T. August said:

How much of that is from this evening’s event?

Guess would be .25-.5"

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Believe it or not.......AI WETTER!

Start with this 6 hour panel.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200

Well damn.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well damn.

While the operational flounders, the AI is turning it into a low end warning event.

[Heisy]

While the operational flounders, the AI is turning it into a low end warning event.

This is it’s shot to become famous.


.

[StormyClearweather]

Ever so slightly better than 12Z, like +.05 for most. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is it’s shot to become famous.


.

Better yet, we get hit on the 28th, though not as hard as the 12z operational.  But give it time! Lol

[mitchnick]

AI has pushed next week closer too, but still a miss for now.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI has pushed next week closer too, but still a miss for now.

It’s not as “locked in” for next week as it had been for Sunday. We have that going for us. Plenty of room for it to trend our way. 

[Interstate]

31 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

They need to tighten up their scale.  10 to 25 is a pretty big range 

[DarkSharkWX]

[CAPE]

 

Looks pretty on WB.

 

[Solution Man]

NAM wheel spinning, NO MORE BETS

[snowfan]

[Scraff]

Ok. WTF is the deal here!? Should I cancel my cruise and stay home to Jebwalk and sled!? 

[stormtracker]

Got a feeling the NAM's gonna be different.  Let's see

[stormtracker]

There are notable differences at H5....let's see if they translate.  Wouldn't hold my breath, but the fact that it's changing is a good sign

[stormtracker]

Nah...still nothing so far where the 18z was about to open a can of whoop ass.  Oh well

[stormtracker]

Ok..NAM is dry.  rest of the good 0z is next.  Ssee yinz in 45

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok..NAM is dry.  rest of the good 0z is next.  Ssee yinz in 45

If you look at the height lines at 60hrs, it's got the 3rd blue line thru Hagerstown vs models that hit have 1. Cold push is just too strong imho.

[TSSN+]

NAM is a full I’m doing my own thing mode. 

[StormyClearweather]

The end of the FV3 looks good, with an earlier start than most of the other guidance. I think that bodes well for the GFS. 

[Solution Man]

Somebody post the NAM CLOWN map