stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Me and the Met on the QPF desk had lots of conversation while doing the forecast today. We both were taking note over the past several days of the AIFS remaining steadfast. I felt it was necessary to add to the disco as AI has been around for a while now and we have verification scores, and we have enough data to see trends over the past 1-1.5 years. It’s been a great tool to see where things could trend. When the AIFS is locked in, it has been really helpful. It was really good during Hurricane season and so far it’s been decent within mid-latitude evolution. Still not perfect by any means, but it’s very useful in the right scenario. This seems like it has some merit. I will say that the AI isn’t going to replicate banding structures very well and the QPF output is smoothed compared to dynamical output. That said, I believe it has the right idea and some minor shifts could still occur, but I think we have the main synoptic evolution down. Just down to finer details and thermal profiles. Might have to give AI some credence now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Might have to give AI some credence now. I keep an eye on it now along with the rest of the suite of models. Been pleasantly surprised at how it’s been performing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Might have to give AI some credence now. Graphically it's fucking beautiful on WB. That precip shield. The shape and symmetry of it makes you think.. KU. But alas we know isn't. It's AI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18z Ukie ensemble meam 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Believe it or not.......AI WETTER! Start with this 6 hour panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Believe it or not.......AI WETTER! Start with this 6 hour panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200 Sure is a beaut Mitch. Probably 12mm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Ukie ensemble meam How much of that is from this evening’s event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, T. August said: How much of that is from this evening’s event? Guess would be .25-.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Believe it or not.......AI WETTER! Start with this 6 hour panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200 Well damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well damn. While the operational flounders, the AI is turning it into a low end warning event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 While the operational flounders, the AI is turning it into a low end warning event.This is it’s shot to become famous. . 5 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ever so slightly better than 12Z, like +.05 for most. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: This is it’s shot to become famous. . Better yet, we get hit on the 28th, though not as hard as the 12z operational. But give it time! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 AI has pushed next week closer too, but still a miss for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI has pushed next week closer too, but still a miss for now. It’s not as “locked in” for next week as it had been for Sunday. We have that going for us. Plenty of room for it to trend our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 31 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: They need to tighten up their scale. 10 to 25 is a pretty big range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks pretty on WB. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 NAM wheel spinning, NO MORE BETS 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ok. WTF is the deal here!? Should I cancel my cruise and stay home to Jebwalk and sled!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Got a feeling the NAM's gonna be different. Let's see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 There are notable differences at H5....let's see if they translate. Wouldn't hold my breath, but the fact that it's changing is a good sign 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nah...still nothing so far where the 18z was about to open a can of whoop ass. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ok..NAM is dry. rest of the good 0z is next. Ssee yinz in 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok..NAM is dry. rest of the good 0z is next. Ssee yinz in 45 If you look at the height lines at 60hrs, it's got the 3rd blue line thru Hagerstown vs models that hit have 1. Cold push is just too strong imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 NAM is a full I’m doing my own thing mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The end of the FV3 looks good, with an earlier start than most of the other guidance. I think that bodes well for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Somebody post the NAM CLOWN map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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