1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[CAPE]

[DDweatherman]

Just now, CAPE said:

Wetter for most, good orientation of the swath. Here’s to hoping 0z delivers. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, CAPE said:

Dry compared to the rest of the models but better than 12z 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, CAPE said:

I think even the Ukie has been wetter than that, right? Unless we see something else dry out, uh.. toss?

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

better than 12z but just a horrid run

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Dry compared to the rest of the models but better than 12z 

I just like the track and that it's on the colder end of guidance lol. I like seeing snow in S DE.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

better than 12z but just a horrid run

I'll happily take 3 inches of snow and no rain and not give a damn what you get. It's all about me, remember? 

[Ji]

Just now, CAPE said:

I'll happily take 3 inches of snow and no rain and not give a damn what you get. It's all about me, remember? 

yes. When i was a kid--it was always the N and W suburbs. Looks like you were well prepared for the South and East climate shift!

looking forward to seeing pics of your winter cabin again

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

At least it know where the death band is supposed to be. Seems like it amped up a little but still on the lower end of guidance and had those annoying dead zones between bands. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

yes. When i was a kid--it was always the N and W suburbs. Looks like you were well prepared for the South and East climate shift!

looking forward to seeing pics of your winter cabin again

You still get more snow than me most winters.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

At least it know where the death band is supposed to be. Seems like it amped up a little but still on the lower end of guidance and had those annoying dead zones between bands. 

Yeah one over you and one over me lol

[mitchnick]

Nobody mentioned the 18z Ukie, probably because the 6 and 18z runs only go out 66hrs. Anyway, it was near identical to 12z at 72hrs, except for a touch stronger slp in western NC at 1007mb instead of 1008mb and touch higher heights as a result.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011618&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&m=ukmo_global

[Terpeast]

Looks like models are starting to converge onto a final solution, which might become clearer by Saturday morning. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like models are starting to converge onto a final solution, which might become clearer by Saturday morning. 

Isn't that a little late.  I was thinking hoping by 12z tomorrow. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nobody mentioned the 18z Ukie, probably because the 6 and 18z runs only go out 66hrs. Anyway, it was near identical to 12z at 72hrs, except for a touch stronger slp in western NC at 1007mb instead of 1008mb and touch higher heights as a result.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011618&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&m=ukmo_global

It's significantly SE with the thermal boundary compared to the RGEM at the same time.  My guess is it ends up in between the GFS/Euro type track and the RGEM/GGEM solution.  Judging by where the thermals are at 66 hours my guess is right along 95 ends up the boundary between rain/snow mix and little accumulations and the heavy snow area.  

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's significantly SE with the thermal boundary compared to the RGEM at the same time.  My guess is it ends up in between the GFS/Euro type track and the RGEM/GGEM solution.  Judging by where the thermals are at 66 hours my guess is right along 95 ends up the boundary between rain/snow mix and little accumulations and the heavy snow area.  

Sounds a lot like 12z snowfall 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011612&fh=105&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[AlexD1990]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I just like the track and that it's on the colder end of guidance lol. I like seeing snow in S DE.

So do I 

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

You can just click on the map to see them.  But I wouldn’t be sweating the thermals from the most amped model at this time.  If the models converge on a solution like this then yeah we’ll be parsing them in detail. 

For some reason the sounding is not available on the cmc on ttb 

[winter_warlock]

42 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Dry compared to the rest of the models but better than 12z 

Trend is our friend!!  00z. Hope 00z. Trends the same way

[mitchnick]

18z Eps

[Solution Man]

28 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like models are starting to converge onto a final solution, which might become clearer by Saturday morning. 

You rang

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah one over you and one over me lol

I fixed it

[MillvilleWx]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest Heavy snow disco from WPC-

Mid Atlantic and Northeast...
Day 3...

A trailing wave along the southern periphery of the Arctic front
will exit out of the southeastern U.S with an expectation for the
wave to amplify as it approaches the Southern Mid Atlantic with
attendant surface cyclogenesis across the Deep South, moving
northeast. Recent ensemble and deterministic output via the 12z
suite of NWP has become increasingly aggressive with the signal for
a low end moderate event for heavy snow prospects, mainly from
southwestern VA up through the Central Mid Atlantic, eventually
bleeding into the periods following as the pattern shifts northeast
up through the Northern Mid Atlantic (PA/NY) and Southern New
England. There has been some discrepancy within the suite on the
exact placement of the heaviest precip potential with a split on
two camps favoring a more amplified setup (UKMET/CMC) and a less
amplified evolution (ECMWF) with the GFS now solidly in the middle
of the two camps. ECMWF AIFS ML output has been very steady over
the course of the last 3+ days of output with the latest run
showing great consistency when assessing run-to-run variability.
This lends credence to a slightly better confidence with regards to
snowfall potential across the area with the probabilities of >4"
going from close to 0% overnight towards (10-30%) within a span of
one run. It's a period to monitor as heavy snowfall threat would
impact the population centers of the DMV up through Philadelphia
and points northeast in the periods beyond.

You’re welcome 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You’re welcome 

. The mention of DMV warmed my heart

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

. The mention of DMV warmed my heart

My heart was warmed by the usage of Euro AIFS ML 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

. The mention of DMV warmed my heart

I promised I would t cry…not today…but I did reading that 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You’re welcome 

I swear when I read it I thought you must have been involved lol. Awesome.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I fixed it

Your geography is just a little off over here my man. That's more like Chestertown lol.

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

My heart was warmed by the usage of Euro AIFS ML 

Me and the Met on the QPF desk had lots of conversation while doing the forecast today. We both were taking note over the past several days of the AIFS remaining steadfast. I felt it was necessary to add to the disco as AI has been around for a while now and we have verification scores, and we have enough data to see trends over the past 1-1.5 years. It’s been a great tool to see where things could trend. When the AIFS is locked in, it has been really helpful. It was really good during Hurricane season and so far it’s been decent within mid-latitude evolution. Still not perfect by any means, but it’s very useful in the right scenario. This seems like it has some merit. 
 

I will say that the AI isn’t going to replicate banding structures very well and the QPF output is smoothed compared to dynamical output. That said, I believe it has the right idea and some minor shifts could still occur, but I think we have the main synoptic evolution down. Just down to finer details and thermal profiles. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Your geography is just a little off over here my man. That's more like Chestertown lol.

I got the important spot right