stormy Posted Thursday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:52 PM 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Seems odd to worry about liquid given your location and the fact this wave is moving along an Arctic boundary pushing southeastward. Some recent trends make it a potential issue for us eastern folks. I am way over worrying about things I have no control over. Whatever happens, happens. It is odd to worry about liquid, but he is who he is. Everyone needs to understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:53 PM More expansive with the heavier stuff...good run so far 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:53 PM Just now, stormtracker said: More expansive with the heavier stuff...good run so far I like the look at 69 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Thursday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:54 PM I’m at work currently so I haven’t had the opportunity to check models or login here, but Apple weather now shows 5-6” for Sunday, so now I’m here to investigate 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:55 PM I *think* it will be slightly wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:56 PM The gfs is a great model. Never complained about it. 1 12 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:56 PM NYC getting raked at 81. Looks pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:56 PM 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:57 PM I have the shit snow maps, so WB people yall know what to do. But I'm show 4-6 from DC through 95...and 2-4 just N and West of that...but we all know it's not gonna shake like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM tbh, although I like what it shows, I think the map is prob gonna be more N and W...but not as amp'd as the RGEM/GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM Where do I sign for the 18z GFS? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 09:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:59 PM 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:01 PM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Thursday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:01 PM Yall to the east have some nice snow cells heading your way. Pouring dime sized perfect flakes out here. Enjoy! 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Thursday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:02 PM I'll take that before brutal cold on Monday and drifting snow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Thursday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:04 PM Yall to the east have some nice snow cells heading your way. Pouring dime sized perfect flakes out here. Enjoy!Appears to be heading straight for the Columbia area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Thursday at 10:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:08 PM I liked the H5 map much better with this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:14 PM 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: Seems odd to worry about liquid given your location and the fact this wave is moving along an Arctic boundary pushing southeastward. Some recent trends make it a potential issue for us eastern folks. I am way over worrying about things I have no control over. Whatever happens, happens. LOL ok maybe "worry" wasn't the best choice of words... I will be totally fine and move on with my life regardless of what happens Sunday...well at least wrt snowfall, if the Eagles lose I'm gonna be a pretty miserable mess for a couple days at least. But what I meant was... I want to jack, don't we all? and if I am ranking what is the most likely reason I don't....between the likely options...a weak POS wave, a wave that slides SE of me, or a more amplified wave that shifts the heaviest snow to my NW...that last one is the most likely IMO. This is not just based on models right now...yea right now it seems I am in a really good spot. But I am including my experiences...these types of progressive waves with absolutely no blocking over the top have nothing to stop a north trend. When they don't trend north its often some NS wave over the top, but I don't see that right now. There have been quite a few examples over the last 10 years where at 72 hours the jack zone was south of me, then come gametime I ended up with like 2-3" and the 6" plus totals were to my NW in central PA. It happened once just last winter in February! It happened in February and April 2018, it happened with a wave in Feb 2017! It happened with a wave in early Feb 2014, although I think my area held on to like 6" but the 10" totals ended up north when 72 hours out it looked like a VA jack! Point is, history suggests there is plenty of time for this to end up NW of me even though right now it looks like the consensus is south of me for the heaviest snow. And yes this is first world problems and unlikely to get any sympathy from anyone in here because I would still likely do better than the rest of this forum, many of those examples I gave I still managed to get like 2-3" but the really heavy snow ended up north of me...but of course that meant most in here got all rain lol. So no I don't expect any tears and I wont be that upset or throw a fit if it happens...but of course I want to get 6" of snow...and yes I think someone will with this...but my guess right now honestly if you forced me to say where the 6" snowfall area is...is it will be up in PA somewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 10:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:20 PM Ya'll should know by now its a good thing if I am "worried". That means we have a chance at a significant snow. I don't worry when there is no chance. I don't worry if our max potential is some 2-3" event. I wasn't worried about last weekend because who cares if a 1-2" snow fails. And I don't worry if I don't expect it to snow...if I know its likely going to fail I move on. I worry when we have a real chance at a significant snow...because if it fails that hurts more. My worrying is a sign we have a chance at a good snowstorm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Thursday at 10:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:21 PM 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Who else is wishing the blues connect though DC? Asking for a friend. Hope that is the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 10:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:23 PM 18z GGEM I think I see that ridge you live on Psu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 10:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:23 PM 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: LOL ok maybe "worry" wasn't the best choice of words... I will be totally fine and move on with my life regardless of what happens Sunday...well at least wrt snowfall, if the Eagles lose I'm gonna be a pretty miserable mess for a couple days at least. But what I meant was... I want to jack, don't we all? and if I am ranking what is the most likely reason I don't....between the likely options...a weak POS wave, a wave that slides SE of me, or a more amplified wave that shifts the heaviest snow to my NW...that last one is the most likely IMO. This is not just based on models right now...yea right now it seems I am in a really good spot. But I am including my experiences...these types of progressive waves with absolutely no blocking over the top have nothing to stop a north trend. When they don't trend north its often some NS wave over the top, but I don't see that right now. There have been quite a few examples over the last 10 years where at 72 hours the jack zone was south of me, then come gametime I ended up with like 2-3" and the 6" plus totals were to my NW in central PA. It happened once just last winter in February! It happened in February and April 2018, it happened with a wave in Feb 2017! It happened with a wave in early Feb 2014, although I think my area held on to like 6" but the 10" totals ended up north when 72 hours out it looked like a VA jack! Point is, history suggests there is plenty of time for this to end up NW of me even though right now it looks like the consensus is south of me for the heaviest snow. And yes this is first world problems and unlikely to get any sympathy from anyone in here because I would still likely do better than the rest of this forum, many of those examples I gave I still managed to get like 2-3" but the really heavy snow ended up north of me...but of course that meant most in here got all rain lol. So no I don't expect any tears and I wont be that upset or throw a fit if it happens...but of course I want to get 6" of snow...and yes I think someone will with this...but my guess right now honestly if you forced me to say where the 6" snowfall area is...is it will be up in PA somewhere. I think I am past that with the Ravens after the AFC championship last year. Buffalo will be tough, the weather will be bitter and probably windy. If they lose playing 'their game' and don't make a bunch of mistakes and give it away, I will be ok with it. I'll root for the Bills to beat the Chiefs, who have become pretty damn annoying. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted Thursday at 10:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:25 PM 22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yall to the east have some nice snow cells heading your way. Pouring dime sized perfect flakes out here. Enjoy! Solid coating here already, will easily get to 1/2" soon - snow on snow FTW! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Thursday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:28 PM 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: LOL ok maybe "worry" wasn't the best choice of words... I will be totally fine and move on with my life regardless of what happens Sunday...well at least wrt snowfall, if the Eagles lose I'm gonna be a pretty miserable mess for a couple days at least. But what I meant was... I want to jack, don't we all? and if I am ranking what is the most likely reason I don't....between the likely options...a weak POS wave, a wave that slides SE of me, or a more amplified wave that shifts the heaviest snow to my NW...that last one is the most likely IMO. This is not just based on models right now...yea right now it seems I am in a really good spot. But I am including my experiences...these types of progressive waves with absolutely no blocking over the top have nothing to stop a north trend. When they don't trend north its often some NS wave over the top, but I don't see that right now. There have been quite a few examples over the last 10 years where at 72 hours the jack zone was south of me, then come gametime I ended up with like 2-3" and the 6" plus totals were to my NW in central PA. It happened once just last winter in February! It happened in February and April 2018, it happened with a wave in Feb 2017! It happened with a wave in early Feb 2014, although I think my area held on to like 6" but the 10" totals ended up north when 72 hours out it looked like a VA jack! Point is, history suggests there is plenty of time for this to end up NW of me even though right now it looks like the consensus is south of me for the heaviest snow. And yes this is first world problems and unlikely to get any sympathy from anyone in here because I would still likely do better than the rest of this forum, many of those examples I gave I still managed to get like 2-3" but the really heavy snow ended up north of me...but of course that meant most in here got all rain lol. So no I don't expect any tears and I wont be that upset or throw a fit if it happens...but of course I want to get 6" of snow...and yes I think someone will with this...but my guess right now honestly if you forced me to say where the 6" snowfall area is...is it will be up in PA somewhere. Devil's advocate. One thing that might keep the NW trend to a minimum is the PV pressing SEward and less wave spacing between the sunday system and the preceding low. How far and how strongly the sfc flow is and the PV press is will determine the ultimate track. But if this cold PV is as strong as depicted, I don't think there's a whole lot of room to trend NW. 10 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted Thursday at 10:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:38 PM 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but that sounding only is valid if the GFS is correct about the track. If the wave trends more amplified and NW it will shift the thermals with it. Thank you! That makes sense. Like the CMC here is a more amped solution, hence more NW. I dont have soundings on the CMC but I would bet that it is a closer call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 10:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:45 PM 15 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Devil's advocate. One thing that might keep the NW trend to a minimum is the PV pressing SEward and less wave spacing between the sunday system and the preceding low. How far and how strongly the sfc flow is and the PV press is will determine the ultimate track. But if this cold PV is as strong as depicted, I don't think there's a whole lot of room to trend NW. All good points...and I don't think it trends so far that we end up totally skunked...I doubt this ends up some Pittsburg to Binghamton jack or something... but right now 95 is pretty much the bullseye, and if I had to bet which way it ends up missing if it does...its NW not SE. But its just a guess based on what happens "more often". Nothing is universal and this could even shift southeast and it wouldnt shock me, if the PV trends further south in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Thursday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:50 PM 10 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Thank you! That makes sense. Like the CMC here is a more amped solution, hence more NW. I dont have soundings on the CMC but I would bet that it is a closer call. You can just click on the map to see them. But I wouldn’t be sweating the thermals from the most amped model at this time. If the models converge on a solution like this then yeah we’ll be parsing them in detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 10:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:55 PM 18Z gefs MEAN 50% 3" PROB 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Thursday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:00 PM ^gefs definitely has me a little concerned. A few days ago didn’t think I would be worried about rain lmao. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted Thursday at 11:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:11 PM 10 minutes ago, T. August said: ^gefs definitely has me a little concerned. A few days ago didn’t think I would be worried about rain lmao. Yeah I don’t like being on the southern end of the bullseye 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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