1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But snowmaps be prettttty  But seriously, I get get ya.

I await the Kuchera precip maps!! 

[mitchnick]

Nam looks like the Gfs yesterday. 

[StormyClearweather]

NAM is weak and south - looks like the GFS looked before today. Or worse. And yes, I know, NAM at +48 and blah blah blah. Don't shoot the messenger. 

[StormyClearweather]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Nam looks like the Gfs yesterday. 

Jinx. 

[StormyClearweather]

I know @mitchnickmentioned this earlier, but here's the map. #AIRules

[hstorm]

NAM had nothing at 12z (or 6z, I believe).  So something may be step in the right direction, even if weak and south. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I know @mitchnickmentioned this earlier, but here's the map. #AIRules

It bumped everything a tad north and juiced up QPF, it’s either going to add a nice event to its mid Atlantic resume or look very silly showing the same wrong thing 30+ runs in a row without wavering. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I know @mitchnickmentioned this earlier, but here's the map. #AIRules

Pretty JMA'ish

[Ji]

NAM wont catch up till 12z/18z tomorrow

[osfan24]

6 minutes ago, hstorm said:

NAM had nothing at 12z (or 6z, I believe).  So something may be step in the right direction, even if weak and south. 

Yeah, I am very confident there will be a run soon where the NAM all the sudden has some juiced up wave. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

NAM wont catch up till 12z/18z tomorrow

NAM might catch on by Monday 

[stormtracker]

ICON is decent.  I believe it's 2-4

[StormyClearweather]

ICON - touch wetter and warmer

[yoda]

RGEM steadfast though... unfortunately you have to be NW of i81 corridor 

[StormyClearweather]

[stormtracker]

Yeah, RGEM sucks for most of us

[yoda]

18z ICON did make a noticeable shift NW though in its QPF field compared to 12z

[StormyClearweather]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z ICON did make a noticeable shift NW though in its QPF field compared to 12z

[CAPE]

Latest Heavy snow disco from WPC-

Mid Atlantic and Northeast...
Day 3...

A trailing wave along the southern periphery of the Arctic front
will exit out of the southeastern U.S with an expectation for the
wave to amplify as it approaches the Southern Mid Atlantic with
attendant surface cyclogenesis across the Deep South, moving
northeast. Recent ensemble and deterministic output via the 12z
suite of NWP has become increasingly aggressive with the signal for
a low end moderate event for heavy snow prospects, mainly from
southwestern VA up through the Central Mid Atlantic, eventually
bleeding into the periods following as the pattern shifts northeast
up through the Northern Mid Atlantic (PA/NY) and Southern New
England. There has been some discrepancy within the suite on the
exact placement of the heaviest precip potential with a split on
two camps favoring a more amplified setup (UKMET/CMC) and a less
amplified evolution (ECMWF) with the GFS now solidly in the middle
of the two camps. ECMWF AIFS ML output has been very steady over
the course of the last 3+ days of output with the latest run
showing great consistency when assessing run-to-run variability.
This lends credence to a slightly better confidence with regards to
snowfall potential across the area with the probabilities of >4"
going from close to 0% overnight towards (10-30%) within a span of
one run. It's a period to monitor as heavy snowfall threat would
impact the population centers of the DMV up through Philadelphia
and points northeast in the periods beyond.

[stormy]

The 18z NAM is beginning to see..... It was totally blind to the threat on Sunday at 12z.

[MDScienceTeacher]

5 hours ago, mappy said:

QPF map for GEM - pivotal doesn't have the zoomed in version available. 

 

pssst, snowfall maps are dumb, stop looking at them. 

I agree, but seeing how cold things have been and how cold the column will be for this event, this might be the one time we actually can believe the clown maps.

[psuhoffman]

I’ve always been more worried about rain than suppressed, even for me. I was happy the euro was weak and south. I don’t want the inevitable NW shift to start too soon. Lots of time for this to become congrats central PA. 

[Warm Nose]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest Heavy snow disco from WPC-

Mid Atlantic and Northeast...
Day 3...

A trailing wave along the southern periphery of the Arctic front
will exit out of the southeastern U.S with an expectation for the
wave to amplify as it approaches the Southern Mid Atlantic with
attendant surface cyclogenesis across the Deep South, moving
northeast. Recent ensemble and deterministic output via the 12z
suite of NWP has become increasingly aggressive with the signal for
a low end moderate event for heavy snow prospects, mainly from
southwestern VA up through the Central Mid Atlantic, eventually
bleeding into the periods following as the pattern shifts northeast
up through the Northern Mid Atlantic (PA/NY) and Southern New
England. There has been some discrepancy within the suite on the
exact placement of the heaviest precip potential with a split on
two camps favoring a more amplified setup (UKMET/CMC) and a less
amplified evolution (ECMWF) with the GFS now solidly in the middle
of the two camps. ECMWF AIFS ML output has been very steady over
the course of the last 3+ days of output with the latest run
showing great consistency when assessing run-to-run variability.
This lends credence to a slightly better confidence with regards to
snowfall potential across the area with the probabilities of >4"
going from close to 0% overnight towards (10-30%) within a span of
one run. It's a period to monitor as heavy snowfall threat would
impact the population centers of the DMV up through Philadelphia
and points northeast in the periods beyond.

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve always been more worried about rain than suppressed, even for me. I was happy the euro was weak and south. I don’t want the inevitable NW shift to start too soon. Lots of time for this to become congrats central PA. 

It usually does

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve always been more worried about rain than suppressed, even for me. 

I am not an expert on these soundings but isnt this safely below freezing all the way up through the column?

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’ve always been more worried about rain than suppressed, even for me. 

Seems odd to worry about liquid given your location and the fact this wave is moving along an Arctic boundary pushing southeastward. Some recent trends make it a potential issue for us eastern folks. I am way over worrying about things I have no control over. Whatever happens, happens. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I am not an expert on these soundings but isnt this safely below freezing all the way up through the column?

It's beyond fine 

[stormtracker]

GFS looking very similar to 12z so far.  Precip on the door.

[stormtracker]

Cute little 1012 "Low" going on the NC coast.

Anyway..snow starts earlier.  around 12z. No temp issues so far

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I am not an expert on these soundings but isnt this safely below freezing all the way up through the column?

Yea but that sounding only is valid if the GFS is correct about the track. If the wave trends more amplified and NW it will shift the thermals with it.