Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But snowmaps be prettttty But seriously, I get get ya. I await the Kuchera precip maps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Nam looks like the Gfs yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 NAM is weak and south - looks like the GFS looked before today. Or worse. And yes, I know, NAM at +48 and blah blah blah. Don't shoot the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, mitchnick said: Nam looks like the Gfs yesterday. Jinx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I know @mitchnickmentioned this earlier, but here's the map. #AIRules 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 NAM had nothing at 12z (or 6z, I believe). So something may be step in the right direction, even if weak and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: I know @mitchnickmentioned this earlier, but here's the map. #AIRules It bumped everything a tad north and juiced up QPF, it’s either going to add a nice event to its mid Atlantic resume or look very silly showing the same wrong thing 30+ runs in a row without wavering. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: I know @mitchnickmentioned this earlier, but here's the map. #AIRules Pretty JMA'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 NAM wont catch up till 12z/18z tomorrow 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, hstorm said: NAM had nothing at 12z (or 6z, I believe). So something may be step in the right direction, even if weak and south. Yeah, I am very confident there will be a run soon where the NAM all the sudden has some juiced up wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 16 minutes ago, Ji said: NAM wont catch up till 12z/18z tomorrow NAM might catch on by Monday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 ICON is decent. I believe it's 2-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 ICON - touch wetter and warmer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 RGEM steadfast though... unfortunately you have to be NW of i81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Yeah, RGEM sucks for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 18z ICON did make a noticeable shift NW though in its QPF field compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z ICON did make a noticeable shift NW though in its QPF field compared to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Latest Heavy snow disco from WPC- Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Day 3... A trailing wave along the southern periphery of the Arctic front will exit out of the southeastern U.S with an expectation for the wave to amplify as it approaches the Southern Mid Atlantic with attendant surface cyclogenesis across the Deep South, moving northeast. Recent ensemble and deterministic output via the 12z suite of NWP has become increasingly aggressive with the signal for a low end moderate event for heavy snow prospects, mainly from southwestern VA up through the Central Mid Atlantic, eventually bleeding into the periods following as the pattern shifts northeast up through the Northern Mid Atlantic (PA/NY) and Southern New England. There has been some discrepancy within the suite on the exact placement of the heaviest precip potential with a split on two camps favoring a more amplified setup (UKMET/CMC) and a less amplified evolution (ECMWF) with the GFS now solidly in the middle of the two camps. ECMWF AIFS ML output has been very steady over the course of the last 3+ days of output with the latest run showing great consistency when assessing run-to-run variability. This lends credence to a slightly better confidence with regards to snowfall potential across the area with the probabilities of >4" going from close to 0% overnight towards (10-30%) within a span of one run. It's a period to monitor as heavy snowfall threat would impact the population centers of the DMV up through Philadelphia and points northeast in the periods beyond. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The 18z NAM is beginning to see..... It was totally blind to the threat on Sunday at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 hours ago, mappy said: QPF map for GEM - pivotal doesn't have the zoomed in version available. pssst, snowfall maps are dumb, stop looking at them. I agree, but seeing how cold things have been and how cold the column will be for this event, this might be the one time we actually can believe the clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I’ve always been more worried about rain than suppressed, even for me. I was happy the euro was weak and south. I don’t want the inevitable NW shift to start too soon. Lots of time for this to become congrats central PA. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest Heavy snow disco from WPC- Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Day 3... A trailing wave along the southern periphery of the Arctic front will exit out of the southeastern U.S with an expectation for the wave to amplify as it approaches the Southern Mid Atlantic with attendant surface cyclogenesis across the Deep South, moving northeast. Recent ensemble and deterministic output via the 12z suite of NWP has become increasingly aggressive with the signal for a low end moderate event for heavy snow prospects, mainly from southwestern VA up through the Central Mid Atlantic, eventually bleeding into the periods following as the pattern shifts northeast up through the Northern Mid Atlantic (PA/NY) and Southern New England. There has been some discrepancy within the suite on the exact placement of the heaviest precip potential with a split on two camps favoring a more amplified setup (UKMET/CMC) and a less amplified evolution (ECMWF) with the GFS now solidly in the middle of the two camps. ECMWF AIFS ML output has been very steady over the course of the last 3+ days of output with the latest run showing great consistency when assessing run-to-run variability. This lends credence to a slightly better confidence with regards to snowfall potential across the area with the probabilities of >4" going from close to 0% overnight towards (10-30%) within a span of one run. It's a period to monitor as heavy snowfall threat would impact the population centers of the DMV up through Philadelphia and points northeast in the periods beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve always been more worried about rain than suppressed, even for me. I was happy the euro was weak and south. I don’t want the inevitable NW shift to start too soon. Lots of time for this to become congrats central PA. It usually does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve always been more worried about rain than suppressed, even for me. I am not an expert on these soundings but isnt this safely below freezing all the way up through the column? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’ve always been more worried about rain than suppressed, even for me. Seems odd to worry about liquid given your location and the fact this wave is moving along an Arctic boundary pushing southeastward. Some recent trends make it a potential issue for us eastern folks. I am way over worrying about things I have no control over. Whatever happens, happens. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I am not an expert on these soundings but isnt this safely below freezing all the way up through the column? It's beyond fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS looking very similar to 12z so far. Precip on the door. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Cute little 1012 "Low" going on the NC coast. Anyway..snow starts earlier. around 12z. No temp issues so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I am not an expert on these soundings but isnt this safely below freezing all the way up through the column? Yea but that sounding only is valid if the GFS is correct about the track. If the wave trends more amplified and NW it will shift the thermals with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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