winter_warlock Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: It's always nice to reverse the norm....get better as we get closer instead of falling apart as we get there. Amen brother!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 All I’ll say is at least the euro wasn’t super amped. That would almost be the nail in the coffin if it looked like the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: EPS does not support weak and dry, it looks like the GEFS. Oh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: EPS does not support weak and dry, it looks like the GEFS. Can anyone post the >3in probability map for EPS just to compare with GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, stormtracker said: Oh? Yeah with the distribution at least, not as much QPF as GEFS. I'd post images but it won't let me anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But the Euro while by far the best is not so much better that it often is right when its off on an island. When it is the outlier its usually wrong. Yea it's more troubling having the euro as the outlier over any other model which would be easier to "toss" it still rarely scores a coup when its all alone on an island, in this case the least amplified of all guidance. It does however, make the crazy over amplified and too far NW UKMET and GGEM runs less likely...it makes the final compromise calculation closer to a less amplified solution. I'm ok with what it just showed considering we have 2 major pieces of guidance that are more amplified than we want. Good point. Maybe we wind up with a compromise 2" - 4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And euro has clearly been bouncing around. I’d give it more credence if it was consistent with its outlier presentation. 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Good point. Maybe we wind up with a compromise 2" - 4"? I'm just thinking of 2 anecdotal but similar situations in 2017 and 2018 where we were trying to win with a progressive boundary wave...but things were going sideways about 48 hours before the event (it was trending north which is still my bigger fear here) and the Euro came in with a less amplified solution against all other guidance and we hugged it and posted those stupid burger king memes and said "all hail the King" and of course it was wrong and it ended up mostly rain both times and the heavy snow ended up in PA. It's pertinent IMO because those were similar setups and the euro proved its not often right when its against all other guidance. And it tends to sometimes be under amped with these things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 EPS has DC with 75% chance of 1"+ and 20% with 3" + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 This will all be put to be with the highly regarded extended NAM rolls in with a NAMing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This will all be put to be with the highly regarded extended NAM rolls in with a NAMing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The EPS was slightly better than 6z and indicated perhaps the Op was underdone but its not even close to the GEFS level...that was an exaggeration unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: And this is why I hate the Gefs, if not all ensembles. This was the 0z Gefs total, not just 24hrs like that map, thru same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And this is why I hate the Gefs, if not all ensembles. This was the 0z Gefs total, not just 24hrs like that map, thru same time. It's almost literally like a photo negative...lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GEPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 45 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Our standard .1" event. Maybe we can get 40:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 For purpose of trends, Geps came south from 0z run, so better for I95. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Our standard .1" event. Maybe we can get 40:1 ratios. Its the mean. Shows a pretty normal track for a 3-6 type deal for us imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Its the mean. Shows a pretty normal track for a 3-6 type deal for us imo. Agree, it’s basically 0.2 on a mean 84 hours out centered right over our forum. Pretty good stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 AI holds serve. Looks like last run with qpf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: AI holds serve. Looks like last run with qpf. Last run (if we're talking about 6z) was the best one I'd seen IMO...most expansive and significant QPF shield compared to previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last run (if we're talking about 6z) was the best one I'd seen IMO...most expansive and significant QPF shield compared to previous runs. Yep. Looks the same. Maybe, just maybe, a hair better, but not by much if it is. Definitely healthy qpf shield. You and I are near the center of the best panel. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, mitchnick said: Yep. Looks the same. Maybe, just maybe, a hair better, but not by much if it is. Definitely healthy qpf shield. You and I are near the center of the best panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000 Some before and after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said: Why has it basically become standard to post Kuchera ratios in here? Just post 10:1 and let everyone figure out if their area might get a better or worse ratio. I’d rather see 10:1 so I know what the QPF output is rather than a goofy algorithm that tries to predict ratios on a number of factors… hey friend -- I am with you! QPF! QPF! QPF! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 32 minutes ago, mitchnick said: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000 Some before and after. Beastly relatively speaking. Too bad it's AI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Beastly relatively speaking. Too bad it's AI Not inconsistent with several of the models and consistent as heck. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Beastly relatively speaking. Too bad it's AI It has really good verification within 5 days. After that it gets really jumpy which makes sense because it’s difficult to use analogs at that range since you’re making a lot of assumptions before you get to the critical points in a storms development that far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 @Ji favorite model jumped on board for Sunday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 45 minutes ago, mappy said: hey friend -- I am with you! QPF! QPF! QPF! But snowmaps be prettttty But seriously, I get get ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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