1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

QPF map for GEM - pivotal doesn't have the zoomed in version available. 

 

pssst, snowfall maps are dumb, stop looking at them. 

LOL, over an inch for me. Looks amazing but I'm going to take the under on that. Either way, nice to see we are starting to A) establish there is going to be a wave in our area and also to narrow those goalposts.

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

QPF map for GEM - pivotal doesn't have the zoomed in version available. 

 

pssst, snowfall maps are dumb, stop looking at them. 

Not on the ones we jack on! Those are brilliant and totally reliable!

(lol)

[stormtracker]

Just now, Warm Nose said:

Just confirming since I'm a bit slow:
Now we're giving credence to the GFS aka 'worst verifying model' (according to earlier posts) since it shows what people want? 

Correct.

Also because it matches all the other guidance.  But mostly because it shows what we want.

[DDweatherman]

We need this one to dump 8” on @North Balti Zen’s yard to solidify staying put. 

[DDweatherman]

GFS compared to its past few runs

[Terpeast]

Probably best to reserve judgement until the 12z Euro, but I'll pitch in anyway. 

The CMC/RGEM is probably the most amped/warmest scenario with the highest upside for snowfall totals N/W of i-95 especially near the blue ridge and MoCo/HoCo death band region. 

Not quite buying into it yet, but the GFS and ICON has trended closer to a more amped solution. For now, the latter camp is a more modest 2-4/3-5" scenario for all of the subforum including DC metro with little or no mixing/fall line issues.

We'll see what the Euro says, and if the CMC trends a bit towards a "compromise".

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Seems like a multidecadal cycle there too. Such a hot and cold streak area over longer timescales. We suffered 7 years after 2016 but think about the 7 years prior to that.... maybe, just maybe, we back on a multi year streak. Why? Beats me lol

PDO and AO, we got a hostile cycle of both to coincide...not good.  So far both have kinda flipped this year...if we go into a favorable cycle of both simultaneously.... yea baby 

[mappy]

15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

LOL, over an inch for me. Looks amazing but I'm going to take the under on that. Either way, nice to see we are starting to A) establish there is going to be a wave in our area and also to narrow those goalposts.

Even cutting the GEM in half is great. But GFS/Icon are better for places SE of 95. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

20 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

But they're so pretty and pink...

We always hope to get Barney'd with purple!!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

UKMET looks like it's gonna be a nice hit for all of us.  

[yoda]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

UKMET looks like it's gonna be a nice hit for all of us.  

Better west of BR

[yoda]

 

[hstorm]

Ukie also tracks the fall line, but somewhat better S&E.

 

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Better west of BR

edit; ninja'd

[Interstate]

26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

The rare tiny bullseye over my house. Sold. 

Won't last long.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GEFS looks really nice for this.  

[RevWarReenactor]

Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2?

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GEFS looks really nice for this.  

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

Decent...but I want that 4!

[Interstate]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2?

The Kuchera maps are actually less than the 10:1... That is why people are posting the 10:1 maps now.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Paleocene said:

SOLD

[North Balti Zen]

6 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Won't last long.

Just was fun seeing on any one run! 

[adelphi_sky]

I like this trend. Nice snowpack then Vodka cold.

[TSSN+]

In one cycle 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Potential timing on Sunday?

[midatlanticweather]

Let's keep increasing snowfall to the event! and not lose any!  

 

[Voyager]

10 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2?

9 minutes ago, Interstate said:

The Kuchera maps are actually less than the 10:1... That is why people are posting the 10:1 maps now.

I mostly use Kuchera as it seems to take into consideration temps and snow ratios. In a marginal temperture environment, the Kuchera most times shows less than the 10:1 ratio, and when it's colder and more favorable for snow growth, it'll show higher than 10:1.

I'm sure it's not an exact science, but it seems to give a better idea of what might end up being ground truth.

[TSG]

This is about the same amount of lead time before the 1/6 event that the GFS started to get a clue and hone in on the further south solution. We're obviously looking for a different trend here but good to see

[Heisy]

Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2?

Kuchera has more to do with lift vs temps I believe, combination


.

[Eskimo Joe]

New England will rejoice on the GFS. One more juiced up run and we're going to meet climo snowfall for many.