Interstate Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I don’t even expect more than an inch here in 21057. I am even under the WSW. These types of events never work out around here waiting for the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: I don’t even expect more than an inch here in 21057. I am even under the WSW. These types of events never work out around here waiting for the cold. Cool. See ya Monday 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It’s funny, Euro has around 5” in my hood, GFS, maybe 3”, 3K around 2.5” and I am fully expecting maybe 1” I honestly don’t know what to think. Might work out be about 10 miles NW of 95/Fredericksburg but my experience says No. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Obviously I like the Euro. But with everything else focused on the N and W burb, I'm gonna just chill with my 2-4 and be fine. A few days ago, it was supposed to be little to nothing. So. Win. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 For 1/6, weren’t the GFS and euro in pretty good agreement for the last 48-72 hours? And GGEM/RGEM was way south? Saying just saying… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Obviously I like the Euro. But with everything else focused on the N and W burb, I'm gonna just chill with my 2-4 and be fine. A few days ago, it was supposed to be little to nothing. So. Win. In the end I think most people outside the far south/east unfavorable zones will get to enjoy some fun in this one. Even if it’s the closing act on the backend. Decently high ratio fluff with good rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: So would you say out by Reston is closer to the 3-6 zone than the 1-3 south of I-66 one your forecast had? Just had a little bit of trouble figuring out where each zone reached from your forecast, but either way its always awesome to have actual mets provide input in these threads! Reston is one of those tricky areas right in the dividing line of my typical main zones. I’d say 2-4” with upside potential 5” is probably a decent forecast for that area. There’s a little boom potential with this one for areas that stay all snow through the event, so it’ll be something to monitor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: I don’t even expect more than an inch here in 21057. I am even under the WSW. These types of events never work out around here waiting for the cold. This is a strong Arctic front. The R/S line will be moving southeastward pretty quickly once the precip gets going. The Canadians with the further NW low track would delay that and be a bigger problem for the coastal plain, but most other guidance is in pretty good agreement the cold push is more aggressive. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Don’t trust that the euro, or anything, will nail that skinny band placement, but I love seeing it hand wave the the temp issues….illustrates the boom potential even into the metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I’m glad that I’m bartending today so I can overhear patrons saying the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For 1/6, weren’t the GFS and euro in pretty good agreement for the last 48-72 hours? And GGEM/RGEM was way south? Saying just saying… Yup. I look at all the models like everyone here, but unless there’s some significant agreement within the ensembles and eventual hi-res, I will still go with the more trusted deterministic output than outliers. I haven’t wavered from my forecast for that very reason. Can’t be living and dying by every model run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: I’m glad that I’m bartending today so I can overhear patrons saying the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate. set em straight… “Well actually…” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For 1/6, weren’t the GFS and euro in pretty good agreement for the last 48-72 hours? And GGEM/RGEM was way south? Saying just saying… Rgem was way north. It was giving me 12" 12 hours before the event. Realty was about 4" Ukie was way south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Winter Storm Warnings now hoisted for the areas that were under a watch. Next tier of counties bumped to an advisory. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Winter Storm Warnings now hoisted for the areas that were under a watch. Next tier of counties bumped to an advisory. Only NW Montgomery and NW Howard were... rest were moved to advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 21 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Euro solid Damn. I95 jackpot. That’s fine for us. If it’s snowing at Quantico, it’s snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1246 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025 MDZ003>006-502-507-VAZ028-030-031-505-507-WVZ051>053-190200- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.250119T1200Z-250120T0000Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Harford-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke- Western Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson- 1246 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches with locally up to 8 across the higher elevations of northern Maryland. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northern, and western Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact travel. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the area Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon before tapering off during the evening. Snowfall rates could approach 1 inch an hour at times. Temperatures will fall into the teens Sunday night so any lingering moisture on area roadways will freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z Euro QPF/10:1/Kuchera When does the AI come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, LeesburgWx said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1246 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025 MDZ003>006-502-507-VAZ028-030-031-505-507-WVZ051>053-190200- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.250119T1200Z-250120T0000Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Harford-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke- Western Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson- 1246 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches with locally up to 8 across the higher elevations of northern Maryland. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northern, and western Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact travel. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the area Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon before tapering off during the evening. Snowfall rates could approach 1 inch an hour at times. Temperatures will fall into the teens Sunday night so any lingering moisture on area roadways will freeze. This forecast sounds extremely familiar…. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: When does the AI come out? 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 22 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z Euro QPF/10:1/Kuchera Weird that that stripe of pink is right over 95 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 17 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m glad that I’m bartending today so I can overhear patrons saying the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate. What time is on the house time?? And where?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m glad that I’m bartending today so I can overhear patrons saying the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate. Wait til they hear about EJ‘S mesonet ground temp readings statewide! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 No Winter Weather Product down this way the 1-2” call seems pretty reasonable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 EPS bumped QPF for many by about .10. I know we're getting to the range where it doesn't matter as much, but it doesn't hurt either! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m glad that I’m bartending today so I can overhear patrons saying the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate. do you do the walking down the stairs behind the bar trick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Only Montgomery and Howard were. I were what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, WEATHER53 said: I were what? Upgraded to WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1246 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-VAZ051-053-054-502-527-190200- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0005.250119T1200Z-250120T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1246 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, central Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact travel. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the area Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon before tapering off during the evening. Snowfall rates could approach 1 inch an hour at times. Temperatures will fall into the teens Sunday night so any lingering moisture on area roadways will freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 How does one get inside the Bektwat?Don’t ask Randy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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