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1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing


DDweatherman
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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

A typical n an w burb storm.   Upside went with them.   I just want our 2-4

Well get our band of heavy wet snow as it pulls ne and crushes NYC. 2-3" within a couple hours could be fun. This is mother nature putting snow where it's been pretty bad this season. Our area is coming close to climo even with 2-3 and it's only mid January. 

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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I like my spot at game time in Carroll Valley. Thinking 5-8” since a lot of the varsity are starting to jack the area and ratios may be decent for a portion. 12-14:1 possible, good forcing it appears upstairs… and this low isn’t a slouch at sub 1000mb 

Oh yeah. You’re in a solid spot. You should have average ratios up around 13:1 for the entire event with the final few hrs likely skewing closer to 15-16:1. Nice powder finish

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

Thanks for your insights.

 

Quick question, what is causing that area of increased snowfall along and to the East of the upper Easternshore, in areas such as Chestertowm , MD. Newark, De, Wilmington, De and my area here in Middletown,  De.    

 

It has been a feature that has showed itself on and off for the last few days. 

 

No problem! 
 

I think that’s a result of the primary cyclogenesis with the low strengthening and creating a narrow channel of stronger 7H VV’s within the western flank of the circulation, proxy of 700mb low maturation. This is likely in combination with a strengthening CAA regime within the boundary layer allowing for maximum ascent between the 925-700mb layer. There tends to be a band that develops within that core during these types of regimes. Those are sneaky and can be a nice surprise for areas that miss out on the initial wave of snowfall. One of the reasons places like you mentioned into South Jersey can sneak into good snowfall totals. 

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16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

My forecast still looks to stay the same. 
 

NW of I-95: 3-6” w/ up to 8” max

Along & SE if I-95: 2-5” w/ up to 6” max 

Area south if I-66 in NoVa and SMD: 1-3” w/ potentially up to 4” if everything breaks right

Best areas for max potential: Parrs Ridge crew from NW MoCo up through Western HoCo and Carroll. This extends eastward into northern Baltimore Co over into northern Harford. This includes places like Parkton-Jarretsville-Norrisville. 
 

I like our border friends in PA for this one too. NW of Philly into the Lehigh Valley will probably see 4-8” w/ max of 10” possible. 
 

Unlikey to change my thoughts as things get locked in. Hoping for a surprise overperformer. It’s gonna snow :wub:

When we talk about I95 how does that break down mileage wise ?

is “Along” say within 10 miles  and then north and west greater than 10!or 20 or 30?

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15 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Well get our band of heavy wet snow as it pulls ne and crushes NYC. 2-3" within a couple hours could be fun. This is mother nature putting snow where it's been pretty bad this season. Our area is coming close to climo even with 2-3 and it's only mid January. 

Yeah, my bar for mid AA (Crofton area) is 2-3" as well. Feel like the boom around here is now more than 4", which is fine with me since I'll be shoveling it. :)

The key however is to get at least some snow. Before we get highs in the teens and lows in the single digits (or lower), I would like at least a fresh blanket of insulating snow to mitigate deepening frost depths and the potential problems therein. Don't need any frozen pipes, thank you very much!

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1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It seems like guidance is doing it's finally converging now and it puts DC right on the edge.  Big boom/bust potential with the forecasting but I think DC gets snow even in the bust scenario.  I'd go 2-4 for DC proper now but I would not be surprised to see us end up with 1-2 or even 5-6. 

I agree

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I agree

Maybe it's just cause things have been working for us this winter the vibes feel different.  If we were looking at this scenario in other years I'd be doom posting about our sloppy inch.  It'll be interesting to track the progress of the cold front in real time tomorrow.   If I wake up tomorrow and it's 12 degrees in Pittsburgh we should be good, if it's 25 we're probably cooked.

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38 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe its just me having grown up in Vienna only a few miles out of the beltway, but feeling a little nervous being close to the fall line even in Ashburn

I swear everybody thinks they live on the fall line haha… I coulda sworn I did in Arlington lol once it gets to ~350’. Think it runs right thru Four Mile Run

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13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Living on the fall line your whole life esp your formative years will do that to ya lol

Nervous is exactly how I feel. For those of us just slightly NW, we win some and we lose some but sometimes you don’t really know where that line will be.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I swear everybody thinks they live on the fall line haha… I coulda sworn I did in Arlington lol once it gets to ~350’. Think it runs right thru Four Mile Run

Get to be my age and even the white stripes in the road become the fall line.

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