dailylurker Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: A typical n an w burb storm. Upside went with them. I just want our 2-4 Well get our band of heavy wet snow as it pulls ne and crushes NYC. 2-3" within a couple hours could be fun. This is mother nature putting snow where it's been pretty bad this season. Our area is coming close to climo even with 2-3 and it's only mid January. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, Terpeast said: Maybe its just me having grown up in Vienna only a few miles out of the beltway, but feeling a little nervous being close to the fall line even in Ashburn Yeah I'm nervous here in Potomac as well due to our numerous fails with cold chasing the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I like my spot at game time in Carroll Valley. Thinking 5-8” since a lot of the varsity are starting to jack the area and ratios may be decent for a portion. 12-14:1 possible, good forcing it appears upstairs… and this low isn’t a slouch at sub 1000mb Oh yeah. You’re in a solid spot. You should have average ratios up around 13:1 for the entire event with the final few hrs likely skewing closer to 15-16:1. Nice powder finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: A typical n an w burb storm. Upside went with them. I just want our 2-4 Maybe. This winter seems to be built a little different though. It’s only 36 now at my house, it’s not 52 waiting for a 20 degree drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Temps still ticking worse for 95, not alarm bell level but I don’t want anymore moves like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago GFS advertising the biggest snow of the season out this way. Let's hope it's right. Also just wanted to say #HTTR!! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Most of us have grass that has already caved. Love when there is snow already and new snow comes. It’s a pleasure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago GEM made a small move SE too. Wish it were more tho. But all that to say...Canada was too amp'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago So I was a little too far north for the best of 1/6, a little too far s/e for the best of this one go figure, lol But I'll take my 2-3" into the deep freeze though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Canadian follows the RGEM and get's snow to the beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 minutes ago, frd said: Thanks for your insights. Quick question, what is causing that area of increased snowfall along and to the East of the upper Easternshore, in areas such as Chestertowm , MD. Newark, De, Wilmington, De and my area here in Middletown, De. It has been a feature that has showed itself on and off for the last few days. No problem! I think that’s a result of the primary cyclogenesis with the low strengthening and creating a narrow channel of stronger 7H VV’s within the western flank of the circulation, proxy of 700mb low maturation. This is likely in combination with a strengthening CAA regime within the boundary layer allowing for maximum ascent between the 925-700mb layer. There tends to be a band that develops within that core during these types of regimes. Those are sneaky and can be a nice surprise for areas that miss out on the initial wave of snowfall. One of the reasons places like you mentioned into South Jersey can sneak into good snowfall totals. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago HRDPS nice jump se as well 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: My forecast still looks to stay the same. NW of I-95: 3-6” w/ up to 8” max Along & SE if I-95: 2-5” w/ up to 6” max Area south if I-66 in NoVa and SMD: 1-3” w/ potentially up to 4” if everything breaks right Best areas for max potential: Parrs Ridge crew from NW MoCo up through Western HoCo and Carroll. This extends eastward into northern Baltimore Co over into northern Harford. This includes places like Parkton-Jarretsville-Norrisville. I like our border friends in PA for this one too. NW of Philly into the Lehigh Valley will probably see 4-8” w/ max of 10” possible. Unlikey to change my thoughts as things get locked in. Hoping for a surprise overperformer. It’s gonna snow When we talk about I95 how does that break down mileage wise ? is “Along” say within 10 miles and then north and west greater than 10!or 20 or 30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 15 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Well get our band of heavy wet snow as it pulls ne and crushes NYC. 2-3" within a couple hours could be fun. This is mother nature putting snow where it's been pretty bad this season. Our area is coming close to climo even with 2-3 and it's only mid January. Yeah, my bar for mid AA (Crofton area) is 2-3" as well. Feel like the boom around here is now more than 4", which is fine with me since I'll be shoveling it. The key however is to get at least some snow. Before we get highs in the teens and lows in the single digits (or lower), I would like at least a fresh blanket of insulating snow to mitigate deepening frost depths and the potential problems therein. Don't need any frozen pipes, thank you very much! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 21 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: best maps i’ve seen in a while. but based on the last storm, i’d end up with half of that, which works. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This looks fine. A great solution, man You rang? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 21 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Maybe its just me having grown up in Vienna only a few miles out of the beltway, but feeling a little nervous being close to the fall line even in Ashburn Nervous is your style has been for awhile we all have our ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Wxtrix said: best maps i’ve seen in a while. but based on the last storm, i’d end up with half of that, which works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago It seems like guidance is finally converging now and it puts DC right on the edge. Big boom/bust potential with the forecasting but I think DC gets snow even in the bust scenario. I'd go 2-4 for DC proper now but I would not be surprised to see us end up with 1-2 or even 5-6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Nervous is your style has been for awhile we all have our ticks Living on the fall line your whole life esp your formative years will do that to ya lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: It seems like guidance is doing it's finally converging now and it puts DC right on the edge. Big boom/bust potential with the forecasting but I think DC gets snow even in the bust scenario. I'd go 2-4 for DC proper now but I would not be surprised to see us end up with 1-2 or even 5-6. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I agree Maybe it's just cause things have been working for us this winter the vibes feel different. If we were looking at this scenario in other years I'd be doom posting about our sloppy inch. It'll be interesting to track the progress of the cold front in real time tomorrow. If I wake up tomorrow and it's 12 degrees in Pittsburgh we should be good, if it's 25 we're probably cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Solution Man said: You rang? You saw what I did there…pretty sneaky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Astounding cold air is coming in and I think even inside the Bektwat(Beltway in non Romanian)is all snow by 12 noon Sunday and this is not an ender after just couple hours of snow. More like snow thru 8pm and heavy from about 2 to 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Probably too close in for the GEFS but it shifted the 4 inch snow probabilities southeastward. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 38 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Maybe its just me having grown up in Vienna only a few miles out of the beltway, but feeling a little nervous being close to the fall line even in Ashburn I swear everybody thinks they live on the fall line haha… I coulda sworn I did in Arlington lol once it gets to ~350’. Think it runs right thru Four Mile Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Living on the fall line your whole life esp your formative years will do that to ya lol Nervous is exactly how I feel. For those of us just slightly NW, we win some and we lose some but sometimes you don’t really know where that line will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I swear everybody thinks they live on the fall line haha… I coulda sworn I did in Arlington lol once it gets to ~350’. Think it runs right thru Four Mile Run Get to be my age and even the white stripes in the road become the fall line. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Nervous is exactly how I feel. For those of us just slightly NW, we win some and we lose some but sometimes you don’t really know where that line will be. I think you are good for 4-6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Astounding cold air is coming in and I think even inside the Bektwat us all snow by 12 noon Sunday and thus us not an ender after just couple hours of snow. More like snow thru 8pm and heavy from about 2 to 7. How does one get inside the Bektwat? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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