BristowWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, H2O said: This is pretty much what will happen for the 95E crew. But I'll amend this to MBY The NW crew will get snow sooner but as the low gets going my hood will see temps rise to 60s and if I'm lucky there will be enough sun to come out to get severe. A squall line will come thru before the cold front and once that clears a wall of cold air will come and freeze my puddles. Only snow will be the sad piles in the parking lots from the 1/6 snow. If the mud freezes quick enough the kids can go sledding 60s? That would be unfortunate. Can’t even play golf and take advantage of it. When are we hitting 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 28 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: rgem shifted SE Think we may be at the beginning of the models picking up on the progressive nature of the flow with no blocking and the cold air allowed to slosh east southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Well..GFS show starting. We should know what's up pretty quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well..GFS show starting. We should know what's up pretty quickly I feel like if things are to go awry…this would be the run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I feel like if things are to go awry…this would be the run Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 So far, no notable changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looking good so far..same as 6z, but sfc temps are a hair cooler 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Not RGEM or ICON like, that's for sure. It's about the same as 6z..for mby anyway 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looking good so far..same as 6z, but sfc temps are a hair cooler That's good. No warmer trend. we're 24 hours out and the rgem doesn't know shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 N and W seems to get the better snows. But duh. Phil up to NYC do pretty well too. Not that yall care 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WB 12Z GFS 10 am, 1 pm; 4, 7 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looks like a hold 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 My forecast still looks to stay the same. NW of I-95: 3-6” w/ up to 8” max Along & SE if I-95: 2-5” w/ up to 6” max Area south if I-66 in NoVa and SMD: 1-3” w/ potentially up to 4” if everything breaks right Best areas for max potential: Parrs Ridge crew from NW MoCo up through Western HoCo and Carroll. This extends eastward into northern Baltimore Co over into northern Harford. This includes places like Parkton-Jarretsville-Norrisville. I like our border friends in PA for this one too. NW of Philly into the Lehigh Valley will probably see 4-8” w/ max of 10” possible. Unlikey to change my thoughts as things get locked in. Hoping for a surprise overperformer. It’s gonna snow 19 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WB 12Z GFS 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Looks like a hold You get bombed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Hoping we overperform so DC getes 6 inches and NW gets 8-10". Give me all the snow I can get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 A typical n an w burb storm. Upside went with them. I just want our 2-4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: My forecast still looks to stay the same. NW of I-95: 3-6” w/ up to 8” max Along & SE if I-95: 2-5” w/ up to 6” max Area south if I-66 in NoVa and SMD: 1-3” w/ potentially up to 4” if everything breaks right Best areas for max potential: Parrs Ridge crew from NW MoCo up through Western HoCo and Carroll. This extends eastward into northern Baltimore Co over into northern Harford. This includes places like Parkton-Jarretsville-Norrisville. I like our border friends in PA for this one too. NW of Philly into the Lehigh Valley will probably see 4-8” w/ max of 10” possible. Unlikey to change my thoughts as things get locked in. Hoping for a surprise overperformer. It’s gonna snow I like my spot at game time in Carroll Valley. Thinking 5-8” since a lot of the varsity are starting to jack the area and ratios may be decent for a portion. 12-14:1 possible, good forcing it appears upstairs… and this low isn’t a slouch at sub 1000mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Very AIfs-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS is beautiful. Legit beatdown. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Please be right, GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 @dailylurker That thump being advertised in AA County for the final 2-3 hrs looks incredibly legit for us lowlanders. That could be a solid punch before it all ends. Pretty consistent indication among guidance. Probably a shot at puking fatties within that window. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, bncho said: You get bombed. Maybe its just me having grown up in Vienna only a few miles out of the beltway, but feeling a little nervous being close to the fall line even in Ashburn 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: This looks fine. A great solution, man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: My forecast still looks to stay the same. NW of I-95: 3-6” w/ up to 8” max Along & SE if I-95: 2-5” w/ up to 6” max Area south if I-66 in NoVa and SMD: 1-3” w/ potentially up to 4” if everything breaks right Best areas for max potential: Parrs Ridge crew from NW MoCo up through Western HoCo and Carroll. This extends eastward into northern Baltimore Co over into northern Harford. This includes places like Parkton-Jarretsville-Norrisville. I like our border friends in PA for this one too. NW of Philly into the Lehigh Valley will probably see 4-8” w/ max of 10” possible. Unlikey to change my thoughts as things get locked in. Hoping for a surprise overperformer. It’s gonna snow Thanks for your insights. Quick question, what is causing that area of increased snowfall along and to the East of the upper Easternshore, in areas such as Chestertowm , MD. Newark, De, Wilmington, De and my area here in Middletown, De. It has been a feature that has showed itself on and off for the last few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: A typical n an w burb storm. Upside went with them. I just want our 2-4 Well get our band of heavy wet snow as it pulls ne and crushes NYC. 2-3" within a couple hours could be fun. This is mother nature putting snow where it's been pretty bad this season. Our area is coming close to climo even with 2-3 and it's only mid January. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Terpeast said: Maybe its just me having grown up in Vienna only a few miles out of the beltway, but feeling a little nervous being close to the fall line even in Ashburn Yeah I'm nervous here in Potomac as well due to our numerous fails with cold chasing the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I like my spot at game time in Carroll Valley. Thinking 5-8” since a lot of the varsity are starting to jack the area and ratios may be decent for a portion. 12-14:1 possible, good forcing it appears upstairs… and this low isn’t a slouch at sub 1000mb Oh yeah. You’re in a solid spot. You should have average ratios up around 13:1 for the entire event with the final few hrs likely skewing closer to 15-16:1. Nice powder finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: A typical n an w burb storm. Upside went with them. I just want our 2-4 Maybe. This winter seems to be built a little different though. It’s only 36 now at my house, it’s not 52 waiting for a 20 degree drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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