Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Saturday at 02:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:20 PM The NAM 3-km, as I understand it, is still very good guidance for thermal profiles. As for overall precip, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 02:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:24 PM WB 3K NAM.... hopefully Ji is asleep. But it stinks for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Saturday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:26 PM 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s pretty much a 1-3” event for places currently predicted to get 4-6”. But everyone can have their own definition of “nice” My bad - I was looking at the FV3 as opposed to the NAM, so that explains it. Hopefully it knows its stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:26 PM High Risk said before last Monday's storm that the Hrrr doesn't include new soundings for each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 02:27 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:27 PM Just now, mitchnick said: High Risk said before last Monday's storm that the Hrrr doesn't include new soundings for each run. Correct. FV3 is the polar opposite of the 3k, crushes our neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Saturday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:30 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: High Risk said before last Monday's storm that the Hrrr doesn't include new soundings for each run. Clarification needed: the 12z soundings do not make it into the 12z HRRR. They’ll be used in the 13z cycle (which of course only runs 18 hours out…..) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted Saturday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:33 PM FV3 is for 95 with the rain snow line. Really want to see some of these mesos stop riding the nw envelope of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Saturday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:40 PM 7 minutes ago, baltosquid said: FV3 is for 95 with the rain snow line. Really want to see some of these mesos stop riding the nw envelope of guidance The 95 region will go like this.. It will start as rain while nw of the area will be snow and 30-31 degrees. Lowlands will be 35-36 with light rain. As the low gets going and the precip is rocketing ne a band will form on the backside. It will be pretty heavy. Temps will drop to 31-32 and rain will turn to heavy snow. Big wet flakes. That will last from 45 minutes to about 2 hours. It will drop 1-2" maybe a 3" lollie in my yard lol. It will rapidly end from sw to ne and the wind will come in behind it. I've watched weather in this area for 46 years. Book it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:44 PM 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: The 95 region will go like this.. It will start as rain while nw of the area will be snow and 30-31 degrees. Lowlands will be 35-36 with light rain. As the low gets going and the precip is rocketing ne a band will form on the backside. It will be pretty heavy. Temps will drop to 31-32 and rain will turn to heavy snow. Big wet flakes. That will last from 45 minutes to about 2 hours. It will drop 1-2" maybe a 3" lollie in my yard lol. It will rapidly end from sw to ne and the wind will come in behind it. I've watched weather in this area for 46 years. Book it Sounds about like this area, but I hope you’re wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:45 PM The NAMs almost never impact my opinion. I’d still be more worried about over amplification then under 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Saturday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:45 PM Just now, Solution Man said: Sounds about like this area, but I hope you’re wrong So do I but this is probably a very accurate forecast from what I'm seeing for the lowlands. I'm a lowlands expert lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:48 PM Icon roulette, place your bets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:49 PM Does anyone know if the 3k nam has a history of moving frontal boundaries too quickly, or just right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted Saturday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:52 PM 11 minutes ago, dailylurker said: The 95 region will go like this.. It will start as rain while nw of the area will be snow and 30-31 degrees. Lowlands will be 35-36 with light rain. As the low gets going and the precip is rocketing ne a band will form on the backside. It will be pretty heavy. Temps will drop to 31-32 and rain will turn to heavy snow. Big wet flakes. That will last from 45 minutes to about 2 hours. It will drop 1-2" maybe a 3" lollie in my yard lol. It will rapidly end from sw to ne and the wind will come in behind it. I've watched weather in this area for 46 years. Book it Probably correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Saturday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:53 PM Just now, deer said: Probably correct I'm not trying to deb at all. I'd put a paycheck on this is how it plays out. Not terrible imo. A couple hours of heavy snow would be a win for AA County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted Saturday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:54 PM Just now, dailylurker said: I'm not trying to deb at all. I'd put a paycheck on this is how it plays out. Not terrible imo. A couple hours of heavy snow would be a win for AA County. 100% you’re right about this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted Saturday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:00 PM rgem shifted SE 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Saturday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:01 PM RDPS looks a touch colder and east-er with the R/S line to my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:01 PM 20 minutes ago, dailylurker said: The 95 region will go like this.. It will start as rain while nw of the area will be snow and 30-31 degrees. Lowlands will be 35-36 with light rain. As the low gets going and the precip is rocketing ne a band will form on the backside. It will be pretty heavy. Temps will drop to 31-32 and rain will turn to heavy snow. Big wet flakes. That will last from 45 minutes to about 2 hours. It will drop 1-2" maybe a 3" lollie in my yard lol. It will rapidly end from sw to ne and the wind will come in behind it. I've watched weather in this area for 46 years. Book it This is hilarious...because it's true. Most of us know this is how it goes in marginal or close events. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:01 PM Icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:02 PM Just now, StormyClearweather said: RDPS looks a touch colder and east-er with the R/S line to my eye. We need it to keep going that way. But it's the only one that's amp'd up so far (still) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:02 PM Just now, DarkSharkWX said: rgem shifted SE Great sign! Lets see if it shifts one more time to get DC metro in the game for high end advisory! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Saturday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:02 PM 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: rgem shifted SE I was just going to post this. Better for the northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted Saturday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:03 PM 29 minutes ago, baltosquid said: FV3 is for 95 with the rain snow line. Really want to see some of these mesos stop riding the nw envelope of guidance It’s got a nasty dryslot over Baltimore and those of us nearby. I hope this isn’t right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Saturday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:04 PM 39 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM.... hopefully Ji is asleep. But it stinks for us. Still jackpots Dulles I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Saturday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:04 PM Icon is a disaster lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Saturday at 03:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:07 PM This is and always has been a Loudoun special. But anymore movement NW and even Loudoun is in trouble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted Saturday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:10 PM 4 minutes ago, T. August said: Icon is a disaster lol It looks virtually identical to 6z. Whether it’s right or not is a different question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Saturday at 03:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:11 PM 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This is and always has been a Loudoun special. But anymore movement NW and even Loudoun is in trouble Has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 03:11 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:11 PM Just now, hstorm said: It looks virtually identical to 6z. Whether it’s right or not is a different question. Icon is getting wetter by the run for several spots, but mainly NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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