psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:09 PM Oh and BTW the euro map that was posted used a less friendly algorithm for along the rain snow line. I’m not saying it’s wrong. But because the 0z euro maps used wxbell it gives the impression the NW shift was way worse than it actually was. This is the wxbell 6z and 0z for a fair comparison 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Saturday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:12 PM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh and BTW the euro map that was posted used a less friendly algorithm for along the rain snow line. I’m not saying it’s wrong. But because the 0z euro maps used wxbell it gives the impression the NW shift was way worse than it actually was. This is the wxbell 6z and 0z for a fair comparison Oh wow 6Z looks good for moco up to Baltimore. Let’s lock this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 01:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:18 PM The euro tightened up the edges more so than it shifted NW. The axis of the heavy snow didn’t change and totals even increased some right along 95 in MD. But it drops of even faster once you get SE of the cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 01:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:20 PM kinda surprised the rgem didn’t cave. Oh well, I rather have the euro on my side than rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:27 PM 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: kinda surprised the rgem didn’t cave. Oh well, I rather have the euro on my side than rgem. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:27 PM 25 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: @stormtracker thoughts on me spinning up the next storm thread before the 12z models run or do we run with this until obs thread? Start the obs thread after 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Saturday at 01:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:30 PM 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh and BTW the euro map that was posted used a less friendly algorithm for along the rain snow line. I’m not saying it’s wrong. But because the 0z euro maps used wxbell it gives the impression the NW shift was way worse than it actually was. This is the wxbell 6z and 0z for a fair comparison You were corrent about amping up and less SE of I 95. Much higher totals NW. This will turn out to be a nothing burger in Delaware. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 01:33 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 01:33 PM 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Start the obs thread after 18z? Can do that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Saturday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:37 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 01:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:39 PM Euro AI 6z v 0z. Been a rock 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 01:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:41 PM Euro AI money shots 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Saturday at 01:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:42 PM 47 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Behind this storm though. Holy hell. From the windows…to the wall! (To the wall) Til’ the sweat freeze on my balls, til all those weenies crawl (crawl). Ah ski ski ski muthafuckas! Ah ski ski ski ski ski ! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 01:43 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 01:43 PM 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro AI 6z v 0z. Been a rock Love that, looks great. Solid as can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted Saturday at 01:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:50 PM 11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: This map doesn’t really tell the story that dc is on the wrong side of the thermal boundary on the hrrr for most of the event and gets saved by a nice backend band as the coastal pulls away. That’s too hard to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 01:50 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 01:50 PM 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: From the windows…to the wall! (To the wall) Til’ the sweat freeze on my balls, til all those weenies crawl (crawl). Ah ski ski ski muthafuckas! Ah ski ski ski ski ski ! Speakin of ski’in, best conditions I’ve seen them have over the hill on liberty in several years. I have the lovely sound of snow guns nightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Saturday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:54 PM It’s gonna snow 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Saturday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:59 PM 10 minutes ago, Negnao said: This map doesn’t really tell the story that dc is on the wrong side of the thermal boundary on the hrrr for most of the event and gets saved by a nice backend band as the coastal pulls away. That’s too hard to predict. I'll take it. It puts the jack over AA and PG County and takes away from Carroll County. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Saturday at 02:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:04 PM 13 minutes ago, Negnao said: This map doesn’t really tell the story that dc is on the wrong side of the thermal boundary on the hrrr for most of the event and gets saved by a nice backend band as the coastal pulls away. That’s too hard to predict. I would argue the main difference with the HRRR is the fact that its qdf is on the extreme low end outside of that one band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Saturday at 02:08 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:08 PM 48 minutes ago, Terpeast said: kinda surprised the rgem didn’t cave. Oh well, I rather have the euro on my side than rgem. Trying to understand the rgem panic. It was either last winter or the one before where the RGEM went out on its own and held for a loooonnnggg time - and we all rooted like hell for it because it was giving the whole area a huge storm vs basically rain on everything else and in the end, the rgem wasn't close to correct. I've seen this before a LOT with that model. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Saturday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:12 PM I'm surprised there isn't a watch for the periphery counties along the warned counties. If the thermals are right on the globals, it would be a low end warning event. I guess it's not a big deal, but it just seems to me that having the watch and then issuing an advisory if the warning criteria is not going to verify has been the norm for years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:13 PM NAM 3k nice, not finshed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 02:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:16 PM 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: NAM 3k nice, not finshed Precip looks paultry to me, but we'll see how it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 02:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:16 PM 3k just spit out one of those euro almost non event solutions from yesterday. 12k still having convective issues. On to the bigger guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Yeah, looks beautiful. Not even posting the 12K maps though. After looking at it, the totals are light, WWA stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: 3k just spit out one of those euro almost non event solutions from yesterday. 12k still having convective issues. On to the bigger guidance. Later start and faster movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 02:18 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:18 PM Guys, 3k is not beautiful. Not a lot of thermal issues, but it’s a dry run. I really don’t give the NAM’s any weight, even the 3k. But it is worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:18 PM 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: NAM 3k nice, not finshed It’s pretty much a 1-3” event for places currently predicted to get 4-6”. But everyone can have their own definition of “nice” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 02:18 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:18 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 3k just spit out one of those euro almost non event solutions from yesterday. 12k still having convective issues. On to the bigger guidance. Time for the varsity squad which are still mostly JV callups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:19 PM The NAM head fakes is a lot. Let’s wait until other 12z guidance comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:19 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 3k just spit out one of those euro almost non event solutions from yesterday. 12k still having convective issues. On to the bigger guidance. Of course can’t just have consistency 24hrs out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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