1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[Wxtrix]

7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

There's a better chance Sunday turns into Knickerbocker than the Commanders win

i think they can do it. or at least I hope so. I remember 1992 and the euphoria in the city that Sunday night.

[KAOS]

shitty map...

[Deck Pic]

3 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

i think they can do it. or at least I hope so. I remember 1992 and the euphoria in the city that Sunday night.

I'm giving Randy a hard time.  I do think they have a shot

[Ji]

I'm giving Randy a hard time.  I do think they have a shot

I would start eckler and hope he can turn back the clock to his charger days

[Roger Smith]

This is a scaled down version of historical big coastal storms followed by severe cold, so far no guidance raises the intensity to a major snowstorm (12"+) but 4 to 7 inches ain't too shabby. I wonder if there will be a last minute intensification trend on track already pretty solidly set? 

I will say 4.5" DCA, 6.0" IAD and BWI, jacks a bit north near 8" if no last ditch intensification, probably the flow is too flat to allow for it. That's good in a way, colder air won't be forced to retreat, it's a glider and a slider. 

[Wxtrix]

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'm giving Randy a hard time.  I do think they have a shot

i have to go to a party at my neighbor’s. i hope they’ll have the game on—it’d be great to celebrate a victory with some snow the next day.

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, Wxtrix said:

i have to go to a party at my neighbor’s. i hope they’ll have the game on—it’d be great to celebrate a victory with some snow the next day.

Is your area mostly Commanders / DC teams?  I know Steelers territory is close by.

[KAOS]

Shitty map NAM...

[Wxtrix]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Is your area mostly Commanders / DC teams?  I know Steelers territory is close by.

it’s a mix, plus the Ravens. i think the game will be on since it’s the playoffs.

[Ji]

Shitty map NAM...

What are you doing ?

[KAOS]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

What are you doing ?

Posting shitty forecast maps of the models. I thought that was obvious.

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, KAOS said:

Posting shitty forecast maps of the models. I thought that was obvious.

you literally did say what you were doing.

[jayyy]

ECMWF and GFS are now fairly close in QPF distribution and orientation. Only difference is GFS is a bit wetter, so it helps with higher totals. This is the range where these two models tend to lock in. Unless they take major steps in another direction with the overall Synoptics, I think we’ll start seeing a more definitive picture for what will transpire on Sunday. Good run and much closer to my thoughts. 
 
One note for the lowlands crew, this 00z suite has tended better for areas north of Charles County. AA county will be right on that edge for the good stuff me thinks. Some of the guidance is beginning to note some tertiary banding across the county with some locally higher QPF output. Something to keep an eye on. 

Wondering if we see watches expanded in the AM for the rest of MoCo/ HoCo / Baltimore

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z HRRR, nice to see a couple ticks south compared to 0Z.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z 3K NAM

[Weather Will]

Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest
Harford-Western Loudoun-
323 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations
  between 4 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northern Maryland and
  northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

 

[jayyy]

Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-NorthwestHarford-Western Loudoun-323 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 4 to 6 inches.* WHERE...Portions of north central and northern Maryland and northern Virginia.* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

 

Beat me to it. Let’s goooo

NAM gfs euro combo say nearby suburbs west of 95 should also probably have one

[psuhoffman]

Getting through 0z with no NW trend was a really big deal. Our chances of a W went up significantly 

[psuhoffman]

Euro AI 

[winter_warlock]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Getting through 0z with no NW trend was a really big deal. Our chances of a W went up significantly 

Still no watch here in  eastern baltimore county  lol

[Interstate]

3 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

20016 too pls - thanks.

Watches and warnings don’t make it snow. I am under a warning my PAC is only got 2-4 inches. 

[Interstate]

RGEM still says no and is even worse. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Still no watch here in  eastern baltimore county  lol

I doubt there will be. Most likely a WWA. I think getting 5 inches uniformity will be hard out of this one. 

[Interstate]

Model guidance appear to have delayed somewhat the advance of
the Arctic air across the local area Sunday compared to recent
days with the Canadian model being the slowest model. Anyhow, a
second stronger area of low pressure will pass across southern
VA Sunday afternoon with the ECMWF indicating the low pressure
center passing across northern NC, GFS across southern VA, and
Canadian model across central VA. This will bring moderate
precip across the area Sunday, before exiting Sunday evening.
Limitations for a big snow storm are fast movement of this
system (i.e relatively short duration of precip 6-12 hours), and
lack of a closed upper air system. However, it looks like there
could be a 6-hr period, mainly 18Z Sun-00Z Mon where precip
rates could be quite heavy. Winter Storm Watches were upgraded
to Warnings where cold air will be locked in place, but expect
additional Advisories to be issued later today or tonight
further south where temps are more marginal/questionable.

Precip will exit early Sunday evening with very cold air
filtering in on brisk NW winds. Extreme Cold Watches remain in
effect and may need to be extended south and east.

[Interstate]

Well the GFS just went way NW with the heavier snows.  Relatively speaking.

Cold air usually comes in slowed than model. 

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Well the GFS just went way NW with the heavier snows.  Relatively speaking.

Cold air usually comes in slowed than model. 

About 50 miles NW lol... its not like it's in the i81 corridor 

 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

About 50 miles NW lol... its not like it's in the i81 corridor 

Yeah but for most of us the spells doom. Another shift like that and we are blanked like the RGEM. Which was even worse. 

[Ji]

WB 6Z 3K NAM

Thsts not a storm….next

[Interstate]

41 minutes ago, Ji said:

Thsts not a storm….next

I will be happy to have snow on the ground for 2+ straight weeks. When was the last time that happened?

[Herb@MAWS]

On 1/15/2025 at 9:06 PM, psuhoffman said:

amplification could even push it further nw which is what the ggem does

2-4” would be fine by me, with 3 cars to shovel out. Much easier than removing 6”. Oh well, that’s my rationale for being happy with whatever I get.

25.2° imby at 6am. Currently it is the morning low.