SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:34 PM 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I’m with PSU. I want to see what the gfs shows here in a few but it moved a lot wetter and obviously a good bit NW overnight. The blend is probably a fall line and N/W theme 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: i'm getting snow for DC over on sv. not sure if its a kuchera thing? 10:1 from 11 to 5 It’s a mistake it’s like 38 degrees on the RGEM. RGEM shows like triple the QPF of the euro and also like a line of almost thunderstorms during event. It feels very outlier ish to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:34 PM If you precisely believe the precipitation types on TT, RGEM gives me 14 seconds of snow at the very end. Nothing south of me and not much north of me until you west of the Catoctins or north of the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 09:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:35 PM 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: It’s a mistake it’s like 38 degrees on the RGEM. RGEM shows like triple the QPF of the euro and also like a line of almost thunderstorms during event. It feels very outlier ish to me. word. i don't have good rgem maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:36 PM in 10-15 min we'll know the GFS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Friday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:36 PM The NAM 12 k is finally coming on board after total blindness. Now, 2" for me after a long run of 0. Of course, this is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 09:37 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:37 PM 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: It’s a mistake it’s like 38 degrees on the RGEM. RGEM shows like triple the QPF of the euro and also like a line of almost thunderstorms during event. It feels very outlier ish to me. Yeah it has a 993 over the chessie, no other model has a low in that spot, but also they don’t have the low that intense. ICON was about 2mb stronger w/the SLP vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 09:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:37 PM 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: in 10-15 min we'll know the GFS solution Yeah I mean I think in any marginal temp set up of course fall line and NW does better but I see no reason to punt this event yet. Even if it’s just an inch or two I’d love that before the Siberian express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted Friday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:38 PM Thread Mood: 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:39 PM GFS a 'runnin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:40 PM Just now, stormtracker said: GFS a 'runnin Hope it doesn’t pull a hammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:41 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: Hope it doesn’t pull a hammy Hope not either. It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle. Like converge on something dammit. This is crazy this close to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 09:42 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:42 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Hope not either. It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle. Like converge on something dammit. This is crazy this close to game time. Precip to begin in about 42 hours on some models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:43 PM So far, GFS ain't budging and almost carbon copy of 12z. Not at the money panels yet tho, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:43 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Hope not either. It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle. Like converge on something dammit. This is crazy this close to game time. I keep expecting (maybe just hoping) they meet in the middle but for the last 24 hours the rgem has stayed put and everything else has slowly tended toward it. Of course I am not saying that continues but I’ll feel a lot better when I see the rgem shift 20 miles or more southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:43 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Hope not either. It's just really nerve wrecking to have these two camps and then some in the middle. Like converge on something dammit. This is crazy this close to game time. Why does it feel like we go through this more often now? Seems like every threat we're bemoaning different solutions still being out there 48 hours before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:46 PM Same start time..like noon? 12z has precip over us. This doesn't look like it's gonna be RGEM esque 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:46 PM Some light to moderate over us at 15z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:47 PM 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why does it feel like we go through this more often now? Seems like every threat we're bemoaning different solutions still being out there 48 hours before. It’s always been this way except for rare examples when we have a stable blocking pattern to lock in major features and an extremely amplified storm so models can easily pick up on it. The other 90% of the time we do this and act like it’s unusual. Why we forget that this is how it is and 48 hours out is still long enough for major changes is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:48 PM Looking good so far...nice stripe of heavy over us at 21z. no thermal issues 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:49 PM It is maybe just a touch slower this run. But it looks really good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:49 PM it's a nice run. It's a hold. GFS says F Canada 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Friday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:49 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Looking good so far...nice stripe of heavy over us at 21z. no thermal issues I don’t think Harrisburg is getting a foot on this run like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:49 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Looking good so far...nice stripe of heavy over us at 21z. no thermal issues Preach 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:50 PM Just now, LP08 said: I don’t think Harrisburg is getting a foot on this run like the RGEM. We don't want them to get a foot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:50 PM super quick mover. We're done around 5 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:50 PM 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why does it feel like we go through this more often now? Seems like every threat we're bemoaning different solutions still being out there 48 hours before. What psu said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Friday at 09:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:51 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: it's a nice run. It's a hold. GFS says F Canada Yeah. It’s a good one. Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 09:51 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:51 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Preach I mean realistically I’d trade .6” QPF with cold thermals and maximize ratios over 1” QPF but 20 miles from the big drop off and 10:1’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 09:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:51 PM 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Friday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:53 PM The cold air keeps getting slightly delayed each run if you toggle back which should be a bit of concern along i95 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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