1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[mitchnick]

Icon muuuuch better at 48hrs vs 54 at 12z

[TSSN+]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Significantly wetter to our SW initially...but have to see if its just quicker to get going or actually wetter.  

Should be better 

[TSSN+]

Boom 

 

[mitchnick]

Better for nw crew

[NorthArlington101]

scary for some of us...

[mitchnick]

Rgem will be very close to 12z I believe. 

[T. August]

Yeah icon is not good for the cities. If the euro/gfs move nw at 18z, I think we are getting into cooked territory outside of the hills.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

scary for some of us...

Fits with the CWG forecast. Classic fall line

[midatlanticweather]

The slow moves North and West just continue on models. For some, that is good.. for others, it is not so good. 

 

[Deck Pic]

I'm expecting maybe a sloppy inch.  oh well

[bncho]

NWS decreased their forecast totals. Ugh.

[mitchnick]

Slp is 993 over MD on Rgem at 51hrs. Crusher somewhere

[Interstate]

It is never good when you have a L over the Upper Chesapeake Bay

[Deck Pic]

Just now, bncho said:

NWS decreased their forecast totals. Ugh.

This was updated after the NAM

[Deck Pic]

RGEM blows though pretty tight gradient.

[TSSN+]

Ridiculous 

[Interstate]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ridiculous 

You should be loving life with this run.

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

NWS decreased their forecast totals. Ugh.

So we are saying a big fat no to the GFS run at 12z.  Ok.  Best model we have and we are punting it.  That’s the booze talking 

[Terpeast]

One of the two model camps is going to cave dramatically. I think I know which to put my money on. 

[Deck Pic]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ridiculous 

what model is that?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

You should be loving life with this run.

Meh I’d like more cushion to the south 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

what model is that?

Rgem 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

One of the two model camps is going to cave dramatically. I think I know which to put my money on. 

I think the RGEM is going to cave, but I think the end result is somewhere between its most amplified solution and the consensus of everything else.  

[Deck Pic]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rgem 

thx.  You're in a good spot for this one

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

scary for some of us...

Welp...1/6 for south, 1/19 for north? 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the RGEM is going to cave, but I think the end result is somewhere between its most amplified solution and the consensus of everything else.  

Never seen ANY model have so many runs in a row and have the r/s line not move more than a couple of miles from the first run to the last.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Is everyone really giving up on an event the euro/gfs/3k are showing as cold and all snow for dc because of the icon and rgem? Of course it’s possible it plays out like that but I wouldn’t bet the house on those two models. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Never seen ANY model have so many runs in a row and have the r/s line not move more than a couple of miles from the first run to the last.

I’m with PSU. I want to see what the gfs shows here in a few but it moved a lot wetter and obviously a good bit NW overnight. The blend is probably a fall line and N/W theme 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Never seen ANY model have so many runs in a row and have the r/s line not move more than a couple of miles from the first run to the last.

Euro AI hasn’t moved much 

[Deck Pic]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the RGEM is going to cave, but I think the end result is somewhere between its most amplified solution and the consensus of everything else.  

i'm getting snow for DC over on sv.  not sure if its a kuchera thing?  10:1 from 11 to 5