WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 20 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: With light snow it will. During Jan 6 storm with light snow at 29F, plowed sections of parking lots and streets and my shoveled sidewalks and driveway melted that afternoon prior to the late afternoon/evening ULL snow. Granted, I had episodes of filtered sunlight. But if we get a .3" qpf storm and warm ground leading in, my expectations are very low. But, maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised by qpf rates for once. Because of the warmth preceding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: They are pretty bullish for us. Must be disregarding the drier Euro solution. 18Z HRRR tracks the low through the Shenandoah Valley into central MD. Glad that model is utter garbage. It had the heavy snow in pa for the last system up till like inside 18hrs lol. It’s always too far north at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: It's fine -- HRRR isn't in range until 47secs Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 22 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track. How much liquid do you think we will have left after temps begin their dramatic drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 25 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: With light snow it will. During Jan 6 storm with light snow at 29F, plowed sections of parking lots and streets and my shoveled sidewalks and driveway melted that afternoon prior to the late afternoon/evening ULL snow. Granted, I had episodes of filtered sunlight. But if we get a .3" qpf storm and warm ground leading in, my expectations are very low. But, maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised by qpf rates for once. Can you send this to me again Sunday at 6pm and we will see how it turned out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 LWX has northerly winds 10-20 mph here all day Sunday. Unusual to get a heavy snow with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 HRRR LOL I guess the RGEM isn't all alone anymore. Lets just hope this POS is as wrong as it was with the last one at this range! It probably is...just saying 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: HRRR LOL I guess the RGEM isn't all alone anymore. Lets just hope this POS is as wrong as it was with the last one at this range! It probably is...just saying Wedges on the Mall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: HRRR LOL I guess the RGEM isn't all alone anymore. Lets just hope this POS is as wrong as it was with the last one at this range! It probably is...just saying Thunderstorms here? Hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 26 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track. Well damn. I’m shocked. I was for sure we would be in Ellinwood gray. It’s a great day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nam has the low and precip at 39hrs vs nothing at 45 on 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Nam has the low and precip at 39hrs vs nothing at 45 on 12z On schedule for tomorrow's full NAMing 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Afternoon disco from LWX has important note about EURO AI SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An Arctic Front will reside in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday as kind of the middle piece of this leader-follower system. The leader system that impacted the area Saturday will leave the trailing cold front behind, but also bring the cold for the Sunday event. For the follower - the potential snow event across the area Sunday - models historically have issues with these set-ups. This case is no different with considerable differences in model guidance just ~40 hours out from the onset of precipitation. Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio Valley Saturday night. A piece of energy will move ahead of this feature being one of the parts of this storm. The region will reside in the left exit region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is favorable for upward motion, as indicated by several methods including the long Q-vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands across the area as well. It should be noted the differences between global models/ensembles. The CMCE/GEFS are notably more bullish than the EPS. Regional models split differences among themselves. Of note, the AI EURO has been consistent with 0.2-0.4" of QPF across the area for several days. This model tends to overdo the broader field of QPF at further lead times, but this signal is noteworthy based on latest verification research. Given the potential for 5" of snow (6" in the mountains), have coordinated with neighboring offices and WPC in a Winter Storm Watch for climo favored areas. Have concerns about mixing further southeast towards the metros coupled with lower ratios. The current snow forecast will likely change, so please monitor the latest forecast for updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 700mb and 850mb rh look great at 45hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 48hrs Nam has snow freckles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nam has the low and precip at 39hrs vs nothing at 45 on 12z It shifted the 540 line from VA beach to DC in 2 runs lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: It shifted the 540 line from VA beach to DC in 2 runs lol Still doesn't have it's act together, but getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3k OK https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011718&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3K looks good. Cold enough well south of DC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, mitchnick said: Still doesn't have it's act together, but getting there. Yea but it’s already shifted the heavy snow up onto central PA. Let me clarify. I do not buy the crazy qpf cutoff on the rgem. I don’t think we will actually get nothing if it shifts NW some. But I could definitely see that 6”+ band of snow shift to our NW into PA and we’re left with another minor snow (like 3” maybe) instead. I’ve seen this type setup so many times. NW is the bigger bust risk even up here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I'll take the 3k nam please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 3k OK https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011718&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 3k can be my therapy session for the afternoon. Looks much better. WTF do I care about frozen water so much? I need to do some hypnosis therapy and find out. Seriously. It makes no sense. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like it will be snowing for the Rams-Eagles game at 3pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but it’s already shifted the heavy snow up onto central PA. Let me clarify. I do not buy the crazy qpf cutoff on the rgem. I don’t think we will actually get nothing if it shifts NW some. But I could definitely see that 6”+ band of snow shift to our NW into PA and we’re left with another minor snow (like 3” maybe) instead. I’ve seen this type setup so many times. NW is the bigger bust risk even up here. 3k perfect for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, jaydreb said: Looks like it will be snowing for the Rams-Eagles game at 3pm? Yep. And coming down good it looks like. Will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Hope I'm reading the model sounding right, but looks like good snow growth and decent DGZ for DC metro on 18z 3k NAM at hr 52? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3k is good... calling BS on the SW region snow cutoff that NWS is showing. Just not supported in any guidance beyond the way-amped stuff. Is a flag that the 10:1 sometimes better than kuchera down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 3k can be my therapy session for the afternoon. Looks much better. WTF do I care about frozen water so much? I need to do some hypnosis therapy and find out. Seriously. It makes no sense. You are acting a bit jumpy....we may have to rename you psuicon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 But is the 3K good? Haven’t heard about the 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts