LeesburgWx Posted Friday at 07:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:46 PM This is the type of storm where I am happy I live in Western Loudoun - need to get some 4-6" lollis out here soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted Friday at 07:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:46 PM 17 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I better not be using foul language watching them. For my sake I hope you are! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Friday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:47 PM 5 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track. 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: MIXING He put the MIXING over my house 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Friday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:47 PM 10 minutes ago, ravensrule said: That's funny right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:47 PM 7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Serge 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Friday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:48 PM 1 minute ago, Buffalo Transplant said: For my sake I hope you are! GO BILLS *ducks for cover* 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted Friday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:48 PM Just now, Buffalo Transplant said: For my sake I hope you are! I think both sides will be. I don't see any active pass game being effective with it being that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Friday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:48 PM 23 minutes ago, mappy said: OUR TURN BITCHES Enjoy your 3-5. I've still got that on the ground from my nearly 11" lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Friday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:49 PM Just now, dailylurker said: Enjoy your 3-5. I've still got that on the ground from my nearly 11" lol I will enjoy every flake, thank you! psst. my snow is still on the ground too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:49 PM 1 minute ago, mappy said: GO BILLS *ducks for cover* Oh Mappy, why doth you despise us so? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Friday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:50 PM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Oh Mappy, why doth you despise us so? I don't despise you. I just don't like the Ravens haha 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted Friday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:53 PM i’m doubtful, but here it is for my backyard: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-040-501-503-507-WVZ050>053-055-502>504-506- 180315- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.250119T0800Z-250119T2300Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton- 207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to around 5 or 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northern, northwest, and western Virginia, and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 07:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:56 PM Just now, Wxtrix said: i’m doubtful, but here it is for my backyard: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-040-501-503-507-WVZ050>053-055-502>504-506- 180315- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.250119T0800Z-250119T2300Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton- 207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to around 5 or 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northern, northwest, and western Virginia, and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && They are pretty bullish for us. Must be disregarding the drier Euro solution. 18Z HRRR tracks the low through the Shenandoah Valley into central MD. Glad that model is utter garbage. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Friday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:58 PM 33 minutes ago, mappy said: OUR TURN BITCHES Until it sails away to Pennsylvania. @North Balti Zen The offer still standing for a Air BnB in Southern MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted Friday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:59 PM 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: They are pretty bullish for us. Must be disregarding the drier Euro solution. 18Z HRRR tracks the low through the Shenandoah Valley into central MD. Glad that model is utter garbage. It's fine -- HRRR isn't in range until 47hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:59 PM 20 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: With light snow it will. During Jan 6 storm with light snow at 29F, plowed sections of parking lots and streets and my shoveled sidewalks and driveway melted that afternoon prior to the late afternoon/evening ULL snow. Granted, I had episodes of filtered sunlight. But if we get a .3" qpf storm and warm ground leading in, my expectations are very low. But, maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised by qpf rates for once. Because of the warmth preceding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 08:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:01 PM 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: They are pretty bullish for us. Must be disregarding the drier Euro solution. 18Z HRRR tracks the low through the Shenandoah Valley into central MD. Glad that model is utter garbage. It had the heavy snow in pa for the last system up till like inside 18hrs lol. It’s always too far north at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Friday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:02 PM 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:02 PM 2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: It's fine -- HRRR isn't in range until 47secs Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:03 PM 22 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track. How much liquid do you think we will have left after temps begin their dramatic drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:04 PM 25 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: With light snow it will. During Jan 6 storm with light snow at 29F, plowed sections of parking lots and streets and my shoveled sidewalks and driveway melted that afternoon prior to the late afternoon/evening ULL snow. Granted, I had episodes of filtered sunlight. But if we get a .3" qpf storm and warm ground leading in, my expectations are very low. But, maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised by qpf rates for once. Can you send this to me again Sunday at 6pm and we will see how it turned out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Friday at 08:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:05 PM LWX has northerly winds 10-20 mph here all day Sunday. Unusual to get a heavy snow with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:06 PM HRRR LOL I guess the RGEM isn't all alone anymore. Lets just hope this POS is as wrong as it was with the last one at this range! It probably is...just saying 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Friday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:07 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: HRRR LOL I guess the RGEM isn't all alone anymore. Lets just hope this POS is as wrong as it was with the last one at this range! It probably is...just saying Wedges on the Mall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Friday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:07 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: HRRR LOL I guess the RGEM isn't all alone anymore. Lets just hope this POS is as wrong as it was with the last one at this range! It probably is...just saying Thunderstorms here? Hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:08 PM 26 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track. Well damn. I’m shocked. I was for sure we would be in Ellinwood gray. It’s a great day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:13 PM Nam has the low and precip at 39hrs vs nothing at 45 on 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted Friday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:15 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Nam has the low and precip at 39hrs vs nothing at 45 on 12z On schedule for tomorrow's full NAMing 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:16 PM Afternoon disco from LWX has important note about EURO AI SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An Arctic Front will reside in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday as kind of the middle piece of this leader-follower system. The leader system that impacted the area Saturday will leave the trailing cold front behind, but also bring the cold for the Sunday event. For the follower - the potential snow event across the area Sunday - models historically have issues with these set-ups. This case is no different with considerable differences in model guidance just ~40 hours out from the onset of precipitation. Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio Valley Saturday night. A piece of energy will move ahead of this feature being one of the parts of this storm. The region will reside in the left exit region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is favorable for upward motion, as indicated by several methods including the long Q-vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands across the area as well. It should be noted the differences between global models/ensembles. The CMCE/GEFS are notably more bullish than the EPS. Regional models split differences among themselves. Of note, the AI EURO has been consistent with 0.2-0.4" of QPF across the area for several days. This model tends to overdo the broader field of QPF at further lead times, but this signal is noteworthy based on latest verification research. Given the potential for 5" of snow (6" in the mountains), have coordinated with neighboring offices and WPC in a Winter Storm Watch for climo favored areas. Have concerns about mixing further southeast towards the metros coupled with lower ratios. The current snow forecast will likely change, so please monitor the latest forecast for updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:20 PM 700mb and 850mb rh look great at 45hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts