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1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing


DDweatherman
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Just now, jon_snow said:

what time is this supposed to start on Sun? Seems its gonna be 40 degrees early.

watch text says "sunday morning to sunday evening" I think theres still some model disagreement on exact start time. 

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9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The sun is still in the off position and 30-32 with steady snow won’t fritter away 

With light snow it will.  During Jan 6 storm with light snow at 29F, plowed sections of parking lots and streets and my shoveled sidewalks and driveway melted that afternoon prior to the late afternoon/evening ULL snow.  Granted, I had episodes of filtered sunlight.  But if we get a .3" qpf storm and warm ground leading in, my expectations are very low.  But, maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised by qpf rates for once.

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Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

With light snow it will.  During Jan 6 storm with light snow at 29F, plowed sections of parking lots and streets and my shoveled sidewalks and driveway melted that afternoon prior to the late afternoon/evening ULL snow.  Granted, I had episodes of filtered sunlight.  But if we get a .3" qpf storm and warm ground leading in, my expectations are very low.  But, maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised by qpf rates for once.

You must be a blast at parties. 

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Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track.

SnowForecast_Jan19_2025_initial.png.a7b6b2186ca354cdb6fc90f3a53e5a59.png

 

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19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ground temps are below 34 degrees at most locations. This isn't a setup where it's 60 degrees the day before and we're waiting to cool the ground off.

Its 45F today and warmer tomorrow. If there is morning sun on Sunday, were going to need QPF rates to save us.  

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5 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track.

SnowForecast_Jan19_2025_initial.png.4689f2385a4ec2abfb14abdeadf90f3c.png

 

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

MIXING

He put the MIXING over my house :gun_bandana:

 

 

 

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Just now, dailylurker said:

Enjoy your 3-5. I've still got that on the ground from my nearly 11" lol

I will enjoy every flake, thank you!

psst. my snow is still on the ground too ;) 

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i’m doubtful, but here it is for my backyard:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-040-501-503-507-WVZ050>053-055-502>504-506-
180315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.250119T0800Z-250119T2300Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham-
Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern
Fauquier-Western Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-
Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton-
207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to around
  5 or 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northern, northwest, and
  western Virginia, and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&
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Just now, Wxtrix said:

i’m doubtful, but here it is for my backyard:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-040-501-503-507-WVZ050>053-055-502>504-506-
180315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.250119T0800Z-250119T2300Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham-
Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern
Fauquier-Western Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-
Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton-
207 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to around
  5 or 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northern, northwest, and
  western Virginia, and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

They are pretty bullish for us. Must be disregarding the drier Euro solution. 

18Z HRRR tracks the low through the Shenandoah Valley into central MD. Glad that model is utter garbage. :)

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png

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