mitchnick Posted Friday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:53 PM Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Euro seemed a bit delayed with start time compared to gfs? . Get yourself something to eat, change your screen name, then check back for the AI. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:54 PM Just now, WVclimo said: Those Kuchera ratios N Arlington posted are 16:1 to 18:1 out here. I’d take the under on kuchera ratios along i-95 and just NW, but could be right for the elevations. Feeling 2-4” areawide, 3-6+ well nw (cacotins and mount psu, m/d line) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Friday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:56 PM Get yourself something to eat, change your screen name, then check back for the AI. But I can’t feed on the powerless, when my cups already overfilled?. 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted Friday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:59 PM Euro blipping a warning light for the NW side of the snow. That cutoff in my neck of the woods is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Friday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:01 PM 5 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Those Kuchera ratios N Arlington posted are 16:1 to 18:1 out here. We know that ain't happening lol. If we end up with .25 liquid I'm thinking 3 inches maybe at best. I'm starting to think 3" is my bar. I don't see the Canadians being correct. Not after the 1/6 storm lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Friday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:01 PM 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Those Kuchera ratios N Arlington posted are 16:1 to 18:1 out here. 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I’d take the under on kuchera ratios along i-95 and just NW, but could be right for the elevations. Feeling 2-4” areawide, 3-6+ well nw (cacotins and mount psu, m/d line) I'm thinking the same, a bit aggressive with 16/18 to 1 (although I did pull a 17 to 1 on last small system 2.2 on 0.13 liquid). 12/14 to 1 would be more than ideal. 2-4 in DC area and 3-6 with MAYBE a jackpot 7 or 7.5 in a couple of spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted Friday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:01 PM 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: But I can’t feed on the powerless, when my cups already overfilled? . But you don't mind stealing bread from the mouths of decadence... Back to the storm, after the 12z suite looks like 3-6" for most with booms up to 8" and busts down to 1" possible forum-wide. Hopefully AI comes in juicy in about an hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Friday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:02 PM 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Get yourself something to eat, change your screen name, then check back for the AI. I'm not sure if you knew that he meant snow start time on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Friday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:08 PM I liked it better when the EURO started at 1AM/1PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:10 PM 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I liked it better when the EURO started at 1AM/1PM Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Friday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:11 PM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Why? Now we have to wait until 3:30 ish for the next model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted Friday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:13 PM 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: We know that ain't happening lol. If we end up with .25 liquid I'm thinking 3 inches maybe at best. I'm starting to think 3" is my bar. I don't see the Canadians being correct. Not after the 1/6 storm lol. Not to mention this is falling in the afternoon with max solar insolation. .3" QPF, even if we get it, is going to be a very minor event. Honestly, not getting the enthusiasm for this system. But, as always, hoping for the best. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Friday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:15 PM 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Not to mention this is falling in the afternoon with max solar insolation. .3" QPF, even if we get it, is going to be a very minor event. Honestly, not getting the enthusiasm for this system. But, as always, hoping for the best. You will get 1/2 that qpf in the desert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 06:15 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:15 PM 13 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Euro blipping a warning light for the NW side of the snow. That cutoff in my neck of the woods is brutal. I'm not actually buying that shield. I think it'll be a decently wide QPF shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:16 PM 29 minutes ago, mappy said: why even give him the satisfaction of a response. let him go talk to his fb groupies about how much everything sucks. Well, I thought he wasn't reading the model correctly first. Then he came back with 0.3 inches as "Dry" and I realized he's just being dumb and/or rage baiting. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:17 PM 15 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Euro blipping a warning light for the NW side of the snow. That cutoff in my neck of the woods is brutal. NW side is high potential either way... Something to note, both the GFS and Euro have had that duel band structure and I believe that will be true...but the Euro is keying the heavier snowfall in the NW band, and I also believe that is true. Historically the highest snowfall with these amplifying progressive boundary waves is near the NW edge of the snowfall *usually somewhere near the -8 850 isotherm) with another max closer to the R/S thermal boundary. A lot of the time that NW max area ends up further NW than guidance suggested heading in...but if you end up NW of that band it can drop of real quick to almost nothing. Being on the NW side is playing with fire in these but sometimes you get the jack that way also. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:21 PM 29 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Euro seemed a bit delayed with start time compared to gfs? . UKIE was like that also. Not really a bad thing as it allows more cold air to get in before the snow starts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted Friday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:27 PM 9 minutes ago, Paleocene said: You will get 1/2 that qpf in the desert There is zero doubt in my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:30 PM 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, I thought he wasn't reading the model correctly first. Then he came back with 0.3 inches as "Dry" and I realized he's just being dumb and/or rage baiting. .3 inches is dry. Not sure why everyone is taking shots at me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:31 PM 35 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’d take the under on kuchera ratios along i-95 and just NW, but could be right for the elevations. Feeling 2-4” areawide, 3-6+ well nw (cacotins and mount psu, m/d line) These high ratios probably result of bitter cold air beginning to pour in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 06:32 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:32 PM Just now, WEATHER53 said: These high ratios probably result of bitter cold air beginning to pour in After the first couple hours when the low passes east of our longitude, I'd bet ratios would improve. That being said, 850's aren't necessarily bad for ratios better than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Friday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:33 PM At least we don’t have to worry about too amped on the EPS. A lot of weak pos misses to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:34 PM 3 minutes ago, Ji said: .3 inches is dry. Not sure why everyone is taking shots at me. It don’t feel so great do it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 06:35 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:35 PM 1 minute ago, T. August said: At least we don’t have to worry about too amped on the EPS. A lot of weak pos misses to the SE. An hour 48 model war with GEFS N/W and EPS a bit to the S/E, ops in between which aren't that far from each other in ground truth (evolution wise). QPF is still a big discrepancy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:37 PM 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: After the first couple hours when the low passes east of our longitude, I'd bet ratios would improve. That being said, 850's aren't necessarily bad for ratios better than 10:1. Think we will go from like 30-32 at 3pm ish Sunday to 20-25 by 6/7 pm so that will boost ratios and I’m even going to throw out some squalliness as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:47 PM CMC Ensemble is better than the op. More southern solutions I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Friday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:48 PM This winter is slowly moving up the rankings. We can't seem to escape snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:48 PM 17 minutes ago, Ji said: .3 inches is dry. Not sure why everyone is taking shots at me. Because we like snow and the Euro shows 2 to 4 inches and you're on here taking a raunchy shit on that? 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 06:50 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:50 PM I'm good with 3-5" baseline if you compromise the good and bad solutions for MBY. I'm good with that, and I'll be happier than a fly on shit if we hit the boom scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Friday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:52 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I'm good with 3-5" baseline if you compromise the good and bad solutions for MBY. I'm good with that, and I'll be happier than a fly on shit if we hit the boom scenarios. I think the lower qpf is more a product of the quick-hitting nature of the storm more so than it being just a bunch of snow grains falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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