dailylurker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:19 PM, stormtracker said: Come on man... Expand Too much? I'll wait until after the Euro lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:07 PM, Interstate said: So the GFS nails us but pushes the late week storm way south. Maybe the CMC miss on Sunday, lets the EOW storm climb the coast. Expand I guess not. It is more north with Sunday and more south with Wednesday..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:18 PM, dailylurker said: Looks like here in the lowlands it's back to our regularly scheduled programming. Glad i scored early in January. This week is falling apart fast. Expand 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 CMC is pretty brutal. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:17 PM, WxMan1 said: Quite a N-S gradient in AA County per the GFS (2-9"). More typical (climo like) that what we've seen this winter, but still, everyone in the immediate DC metro region will be on the lookout for pingers. Expand Yeah, don't remind me. #gradientproblems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:21 PM, Interstate said: CMC is pretty brutal. Expand That grey stripe over NJ, down over DE, through Baltimore and DC actually resembles a giant middle finger. Angle your head a little and you'll notice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This storm on Sunday is our Saturday, January 30, 2010 storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:01 PM, hstorm said: GFS also has many N&W below 0 on Tuesday morning. Expand 17 with a wind chill of 4 in DC midday Monday for the inauguration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We expecting 10:1 or luchera for this event??. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:17 PM, rjvanals said: GEFS ensembles look good Expand They sure do! Even a tad better with the cold push toggling the 18z Sunday temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:27 PM, nw baltimore wx said: This storm on Sunday is our Saturday, January 30, 2010 storm. Expand I wonder what happens a week later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:30 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: They sure do! Even a tad better with the cold push toggling the 18z Sunday temps. Expand Actually worse for the cities. Many members like the cmc and snow is much more NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:32 PM, TSSN+ said: Actually worse for the cities. Many members like the cmc and snow is much more NW Expand You couldn't wait to pull that one out, could you? But yeah...it's annoying, but If the Euro holds, I dunno man 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:32 PM, TSSN+ said: Actually worse for the cities. Many members like the cmc and snow is much more NW Expand I dunno, I still see like 15+ that give me accumulating snow. I don't have access to the members though to toggle with 6z but I'll roll the dice with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:34 PM, stormtracker said: You couldn't wait to pull that one out, could you? But yeah...it's annoying, but If the Euro holds, I dunno man Expand i cant see the euro going from snow to rain so close to the storm man...i mean it starts in 36 hours or so right? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:35 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I dunno, I still see like 15+ that give me accumulating snow. I don't have access to the members though to toggle with 6z but I'll roll the dice with that. Expand Snowfall mean seems a bit south of 6z, but would need to compare the individual members to see if that is skewed by a few big hits/misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:34 PM, stormtracker said: You couldn't wait to pull that one out, could you? But yeah...it's annoying, but If the Euro holds, I dunno man Expand Why is there still this much difference 48 and less hours out form a storm is getting frustrating. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I don't know if I've ever got 10" of snow at 34 degrees like the Canadian shows. Maybe November 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:37 PM, hstorm said: Snowfall mean seems a bit south of 6z, but would need to compare the individual members to see if that is skewed by a few big hits/misses. Expand I prefer checking the median over the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:37 PM, hstorm said: Snowfall mean seems a bit south of 6z, but would need to compare the individual members to see if that is skewed by a few big hits/misses. Expand You can see the 3” probs shrank some south and Increased north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:37 PM, hstorm said: Snowfall mean seems a bit south of 6z, but would need to compare the individual members to see if that is skewed by a few big hits/misses. Expand The probability of a 4 inch snow in DC went from 32%to 35% and the probability of a 1 inch snow went from 72% to 100% from 6z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:32 PM, TSSN+ said: Actually worse for the cities. Many members like the cmc and snow is much more NW Expand Ensembles aren't as useful at these lead times (<36 hours here). Ops outperform due to higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Add the UK to the list of models that says don't worry about being too amped. Edit: It actually trended south from 6z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:37 PM, TSSN+ said: Why is there still this much difference 48 and less hours out form a storm is getting frustrating. Expand On 1/17/2025 at 4:36 PM, Ji said: i cant see the euro going from snow to rain so close to the storm man...i mean it starts in 36 hours or so right? Expand It really is such a weird situation we're in. Especially this close in. I mean, there are usually some model differences, but this scattershot is wild. Models running the gamut, from damn near nothing, to warning criteria, to a rainstorm all the way up to Mitch and co. within 48 hours of a storm. Crazy times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:00 PM, yoda said: Don't bother with the 12z CMC unless you are in W MD Expand FYI, once we are inside 72 hours there is really no need to wait for the GGEM, the RGEM is just a higher resolution version of the GGEM. It's not like the NAM and GFS where they can be crazy different. The GGEM and RGEM are never that different just the RGEM will show more details...and frankly if they were different you're supposed to use the RGEM once inside range...so once close enough the GGEM is irrelevant. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:45 PM, psuhoffman said: FYI, once we are inside 72 hours there is really no need to wait for the GGEM, the RGEM is just a higher resolution version of the GGEM. It's not like the NAM and GFS where they can be crazy different. The GGEM and RGEM are never that different just the RGEM will show more details...and frankly if they were different you're supposed to use the RGEM once inside range...so once close enough the GGEM is irrelevant. Expand I will say, the UK hasn't been awful lately, though it has had a tendency to be underamped rather than its old days of being over. The trend from 12z yday to 0z to 12z today is a major drying & de-amp. Don't know how much I care, but it is noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:29 PM, WVclimo said: 17 with a wind chill of 4 in DC midday Monday for the inauguration. Expand it's apparently being moved inside the Capitol (with the "parade" at Cap One) - lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:50 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ukie is about what my gut says for totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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