1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[mitchnick]

12z runs this morning are still 48hrs away from start time, so we're not talking final answers yet. Just sayin'.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I'm tossing the FV3 until it has a snowier solution.  I'll hug the RAP 10000 hour if it snows on me.

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

12z runs this morning are still 48hrs away from start time, so we're not talking final answers yet. Just sayin'.

I'm encouraged,  yet scared.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just announced we're leaving at 1pm for the Monday holiday, lol.

Thank you Dr. King for giving me early dismissal and civil rights.  Especially the last part.  But that early dismissal tho!!  The only time I change my avatar temporarily 

The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends toward an early weekend dismissal! 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm encouraged,  yet scared.

Try being discouraged instead. Can only get better. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Of course lol. One goes one way, the other goes the complete opposite. Let's say the meet in the middle and jack AA County.

I am not worried about the amped solutions (yet).  Usually we don’t see the euro swing big inside this range.  It would be more surprising for the Euro/EPS to shit the bed from this range than the CMC/RGEM/FV3.

[87storms]

12z runs this morning are still 48hrs away from start time, so we're not talking final answers yet. Just sayin'.

I vote amped. I’ve retired from cosmetic snow events. That’s a December thing.

[bncho]

I find it funny that we have DC has a 4% chance of 8" of snow. Anybody want to play Wheel of Fortune?
https://wheelofnames.com/xa6-rep
(note: probabilites are from nws)
EDIT: first spin I got 8+". istg.

[Terpeast]

Spun the wheel and got less than last night's dusting. Bah

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

I find it funny that we have DC has a 4% chance of 8" of snow. Anybody want to play Wheel of Fortune?
https://wheelofnames.com/xa6-rep
(note: probabilites are from nws)
EDIT: first spin I got 8+". istg.

Got 6-8, we're locked in now

[mitchnick]

Rgem height lines at 42hrs are about 25 miles se of 6z fwiw.

[NorthArlington101]

ICON isn't as exciting as the GFS but works for everyone. If you wanted to Kuchera it it would probably look a little better.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem height lines at 42hrs are about 25 miles se of 6z fwiw.

It's probably not gonna show what we flatlanders want, but I guess it's hopeful that it keeps inching south.  

[osfan24]

32 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

NAM 3k looks really good, thermal boundary way south out of the way even for CAPE. Though FV3 is further north...

I wouldn't say really good. Snows a long time at very light rates, but at least it is figuring it out. I'm sure it will figure it out by Sunday.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem height lines at 42hrs are about 25 miles se of 6z fwiw.

Bumped a bit nw of 6z at 48hrs. We're not talking much here.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Bumped a bit nw of 6z at 48hrs. We're not talking much here.

Nice if your north if I70, not so much otherwise 

 

[NorthArlington101]

toss 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

ICON isn't as exciting as the GFS but works for everyone. If you wanted to Kuchera it it would probably look a little better.

So Kuchera=Clown Makeup? 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Bumped a bit nw of 6z at 48hrs. We're not talking much here.

Sucks.

All the city  folks from DC to BOS are hoping the RGEM is too amp'd/warm

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

toss 

The north will rise again lol. Hopefully can get that to shift 50 miles SE and make a lot more people happy. 

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's probably not gonna show what we flatlanders want, but I guess it's hopeful that it keeps inching south.  

Flatlanders- Eastern Shore

Lowlands- East of fall line to the bay. 

It's looking a little more safe here in the lowlands. It needs another shift to secure a win in the flatlands. 

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

toss 

Gonna be 10 miles north of MDT on sunday, with plans to be snowed in. I take

[mappy]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The north will rise again lol. Hopefully can get that to shift 50 miles SE and make a lot more people happy. 

ugh, i don't like that output at all. mix edge too close for comfort lol 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nice if your north if I70, not so much otherwise 

 

Could be why LWX is hedging towards 0 for i-95 on the low end. I'm sure it's automated, but still...

I'm not worried though

[TSSN+]

Just now, mappy said:

ugh, i don't like that output at all. mix edge too close for comfort lol 

Got to ride the line for the goods. Though I think it’s over doing it too much. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The north will rise again lol. Hopefully can get that to shift 50 miles SE and make a lot more people happy. 

We'll take 90 mile shift SE.  We would all be happy

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

We'll take 90 mile shift SE.  We would all be happy

you aren't storm tracker...

[WVclimo]

RGEM stays all snow here, but surface temps are in the mid-30's most of the day Sunday.

[Heisy]

ICON isn't as exciting as the GFS but works for everyone. If you wanted to Kuchera it it would probably look a little better.

Verbatim it’s good, but you can see at H5 it made a big step towards more amped solutions. If the rgem didnt exist I’d feel fine about this run, but knowing what it did makes me feel iffy about that icon run. Ugh


.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

you aren't storm tracker...