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1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing


DDweatherman
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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, that map is complete trash. Why would they put something like that out? It's completely nonsensical and confusing to the public and hurts credibility.

The map itself is fine, it’s the number ranges that are weird and confusing.

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32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Canadians stopped moving nw with their 6z runs and actually look a touch east from 0z.

We are seeing convergence on the final solution probably.  The most extreme solution rarely wins 100% but my gut was the final solution would be closer to the more amplified solutions than the less and that is bearing out.  I am still more worried about over amplified than under with this but things are converging towards a solution that would be pretty good for places from 95 NW, but I would still feel a lot more comfortable being NW of the fall line with this one.  

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2 minutes ago, DanTheMan said:

I saw it asked earlier so apologies if I missed a response, how is it looking for start time Sunday? May need to adjust travel plans in the morning if precip is moving in pre-9am or so

Some models are by 7am and others hours later. Too early to say for sure.

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27 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

the AI’s speciality is decidedly not surface temps but people may need to start hoping it’s at least a little wrong… everyone is okay by 7pm which is the best frame for most, though IMG_2607.thumb.png.6c7a69409b40f63acfe111ab87c33cd3.png

What’s wrong with it? That’s surface temp at 1pm close to the warmest time of day. All models had this

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23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

the AI’s speciality is decidedly not surface temps but people may need to start hoping it’s at least a little wrong… everyone is okay by 7pm which is the best frame for most, though IMG_2607.thumb.png.6c7a69409b40f63acfe111ab87c33cd3.png

I know you are referring to 2m temps, but it helps that most in the sub have snow cover, so the temperature at the literal surface is freezing.  Even if it is slightly above freezing at 2m and just overhead, the flakes that make it to the ground will stick immediately.

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Just now, Solution Man said:

Give him a traveler’s advisory 

“For areas near DC and points south, a wet snow, occasionally mixing with rain, will fall Sunday. Slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces are possible. Roads will be wet. Motorists should use caution when driving.”

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

“For areas near DC and points south, a wet snow, occasionally mixing with rain, will fall Sunday. Slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces are possible. Roads will be wet. Motorists should use caution when driving.”

This made my stomach turn. Good job.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

“For areas near DC and points south, a wet snow, occasionally mixing with rain, will fall Sunday. Slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces are possible. Roads will be wet. Motorists should use caution when driving.”

Interesting fact: it takes only 3 clicks to ban or delete an account.  Wild.  

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