Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6-10? lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6-10? lol Let's not get greedy. Still having a hard time believing we'll get about 4 where I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Mix line closer to cape…low more tucked in It's not really even a mix line. Hideous dry slot. Some light precip as the low pulls north. That track isn't good for over here but more like the CMC, which has been pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 SBY gets .05" total qpf on that run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks okSw Loudoun special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Most guidance is looking good for a 4 to 7 inch snowstorm for alot if us!!.. But if the CRAS don't show it I'm not a beleiver!! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I don't see it posted, so here's 0z EuroAI qpf. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 A bit of good news for the non-NW folks. 6z GGEM has shifted south some. Here's the link to qpf that falls as snow. Remember to multiply mm times .4 to get qpf in inches. Don't forget to move the decimal point!!! https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 hours ago, Ji said: Ugh it’s slipping away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 QPF totals for each model IMBY 06z GFS .3 00z Euro AI .55 06z Euro .29 00z GEM .97 06z Icon .27 06z Ukie .39 06z NAM .08 Hoping those Canadians have the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6z Euro filling in the gaps at least. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 FWIW - NWS Blend QPF for the area 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: 1-6” seems respectable lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, TSSN+ said: 1-6” seems respectable lol I seem to be between the <4” and 1-5” zone 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: 1-6” seems respectable lol It's the range map. Typically the ranges are the 1st and 3rd quartile (25th and 75th percentile). I would say 3-6" w/ local to 8" as a good call for a lot of the sub. Likely more 2-5" along and southeast of I-95, but we will see how it shakes out as we get close. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, mappy said: QPF totals for each model IMBY 06z GFS .3 00z Euro AI .55 06z Euro .29 00z GEM .97 06z Icon .27 06z Ukie .39 06z NAM .08 Hoping those Canadians have the right idea Avg .30 or so across the models. 1” per tenth and it can be a nice little snow. More QPF the better tho. Go Maple syrup!! Good for crafting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, H2O said: Avg .30 or so across the models. 1” per tenth and it can be a nice little snow. More QPF the better tho. Go Maple syrup!! Good for crafting lol more beehouses, more honey, more mead. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 23 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 1-6” seems respectable lol Yeah, that map is complete trash. Why would they put something like that out? It's completely nonsensical and confusing to the public and hurts credibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 30 minutes ago, snowfan said: They are more bullish than me. I usually go with the standard 0-6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I also want to point out that I called this storm back on Jan 8th when @stormtrackerasked when our threat would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, Interstate said: I also want to point out that I called this storm back on Jan 8th when @stormtrackerasked when our threat would be. We need redemption then. Forum wide 5" - 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 There’s still like 40-50% of euro eps members showing nothing. For 2 days out I’m tired of these huge differences. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 What is the deal with the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: There’s still like 40-50% of euro eps members showing nothing. For 2 days out I’m tired of these huge differences. Majority of the ECENS has members in the primary cluster that according to cluster analysis contribute to 41% of the total ensemble suite (ECENS/GEFS/GEPS). Surprisingly, the ECENS is strictly in just two camps; the primary camp with a decent hit and then another with very little. GEFS is sort of similar, although much of the GEFS has something appreciable with only 6% of the members showing very little. GEPS is distributed a bit better than the other two, but still showing 45-50% within the primary camp and 20-25% in the more amped scenario. I think we are approaching a decent consensus at 2 day leads. If the 12z doesn't sway too hard, we should start getting a clearing picture. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Ji said: What is the deal with the euro? Sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro operational may be the "superior" model, but that doesn't mean it always gives the superior forecast for any particularlocationat any particulartime. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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