Terpeast Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: In one cycle New GEFS cycle likely has some members riding the i-95 fall line with that distribution of max probabilities in our sub. It's a new sign that SE of DC will be sweating the r/s line on Sun-Mon. Take note. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2? They factor in temps...and that's why most of the Kuchera maps are below 10-1 ratios along 95. Kuchera busted one time this season pretty bad because the lift and DGZ were out of alignment and the QPF ended up lower than projected...but the Kucera maps were spot on for the last snow event. 10-1 will be wrong in places that get higher and lower ratios also. There is no one snow map that will be perfect...we call them clown maps for a reason, but the Kuchera are no more flawed than any of the others IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The King has started 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: New GEFS cycle likely has some members riding the i-95 fall line with that distribution of max probabilities in our sub. It's a new sign that SE of DC will be sweating the r/s line on Sun-Mon. Take note. I am frankly more worried about ending up SE of the snowfall max than NW up here even. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 What timing are we looking at for start time? Wife flys out to England out of Dulles 10:30pm Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Going to Harrisburg for the weekend to see family. MDT jack, calling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Ok, here we go with the money panels starting. Precip starts blossoming to our southwest...cross ya fingers 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Timing same as GFS starts around 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It's drier so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 A lot drier actually 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Somebody post the pretty WB maps. It's gonna be less snow. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Somebody post the pretty WB maps. It's gonna be less snow. Sigh 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Somebody post the pretty WB maps. It's gonna be less snow. Sigh Well that was deflating. All of our momentum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Somebody post the pretty WB maps. It's gonna be less snow. Sigh Can we ban TS until after this storm so his snow curse doesn’t screw us all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: All it means it leaves open the possibility for a weaker, late developing wave with less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Just now, Terpeast said: All it means it leaves open the possibility for a weaker, late developing wave with less qpf. Euro isn’t gospel for this storm in my eyes. Has bounced around quite a bit. Look at the last 4-6 runs. It could be right but I won’t assume it is at this stage. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Why has it basically become standard to post Kuchera ratios in here? Just post 10:1 and let everyone figure out if their area might get a better or worse ratio. I’d rather see 10:1 so I know what the QPF output is rather than a goofy algorithm that tries to predict ratios on a number of factors… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It’s better than the Canadian for DC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Why has it basically become standard to post Kuchera ratios in here? Just post 10:1 and let everyone figure out if their area might get a better or worse ratio. I’d rather see 10:1 so I know what the QPF output is rather than a goofy algorithm that tries to predict ratios on a number of factors… This has already been discussed multiple times. Go back and read why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: This has already been discussed multiple times. Go back and read why. Considering I have no idea where or when it’s been discussed, nah im good. Sorry, I just think its dumb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, rjvanals said: It’s better than the Canadian for DC Hard to be worse than rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Looks like the goal posts now are the CMC amped and the Euro weak and dry. During the 1/6 storm everything slowly moved towards the Euro. We'll see what happens this time. There is pretty good support for a middle ground solution between the GFS/GEFS/EURO AI/ICON so I'd probably hedge towards that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just about every other model is moving towards a more amped solution, so of course the Euro goes the other way, lol. Let's hope this isn't a classic Dr. No scenario... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The models are all pretty similar. Euro just a weaker wave. Which is a pretty common issue with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The normally amped NAM has nothing which is a bit of a red flag 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 17 minutes ago, Terpeast said: All it means it leaves open the possibility for a weaker, late developing wave with less qpf. as long as the whole run ends up correct IDGAF 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, rjvanals said: The normally amped NAM has nothing which is a bit of a red flag Yup. Might be the old E/E rule trying to show up again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 But the Euro while by far the best is not so much better that it often is right when its off on an island. When it is the outlier its usually wrong. Yea it's more troubling having the euro as the outlier over any other model which would be easier to "toss" it still rarely scores a coup when its all alone on an island, in this case the least amplified of all guidance. It does however, make the crazy over amplified and too far NW UKMET and GGEM runs less likely...it makes the final compromise calculation closer to a less amplified solution. I'm ok with what it just showed considering we have 2 major pieces of guidance that are more amplified than we want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 And euro has clearly been bouncing around. I’d give it more credence if it was consistent with its outlier presentation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 EPS does not support weak and dry, it looks more like the GEFS. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts