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1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing


DDweatherman
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  On 1/16/2025 at 4:23 PM, mappy said:

QPF map for GEM - pivotal doesn't have the zoomed in version available. 

 

pssst, snowfall maps are dumb, stop looking at them. 

qpf_acc-imp.us_ma.png

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LOL, over an inch for me. Looks amazing but I'm going to take the under on that. Either way, nice to see we are starting to A) establish there is going to be a wave in our area and also to narrow those goalposts.

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  On 1/16/2025 at 4:25 PM, Warm Nose said:

Just confirming since I'm a bit slow:
Now we're giving credence to the GFS aka 'worst verifying model' (according to earlier posts) since it shows what people want? :popcorn:

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Correct.

Also because it matches all the other guidance.  But mostly because it shows what we want.

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Probably best to reserve judgement until the 12z Euro, but I'll pitch in anyway. 

The CMC/RGEM is probably the most amped/warmest scenario with the highest upside for snowfall totals N/W of i-95 especially near the blue ridge and MoCo/HoCo death band region. 

Not quite buying into it yet, but the GFS and ICON has trended closer to a more amped solution. For now, the latter camp is a more modest 2-4/3-5" scenario for all of the subforum including DC metro with little or no mixing/fall line issues.

We'll see what the Euro says, and if the CMC trends a bit towards a "compromise".

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  On 1/16/2025 at 4:25 PM, Bob Chill said:

Seems like a multidecadal cycle there too. Such a hot and cold streak area over longer timescales. We suffered 7 years after 2016 but think about the 7 years prior to that.... maybe, just maybe, we back on a multi year streak. Why? Beats me lol

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PDO and AO, we got a hostile cycle of both to coincide...not good.  So far both have kinda flipped this year...if we go into a favorable cycle of both simultaneously.... yea baby 

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  On 1/16/2025 at 4:25 PM, osfan24 said:

LOL, over an inch for me. Looks amazing but I'm going to take the under on that. Either way, nice to see we are starting to A) establish there is going to be a wave in our area and also to narrow those goalposts.

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Even cutting the GEM in half is great. But GFS/Icon are better for places SE of 95. 

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  On 1/16/2025 at 4:52 PM, RevWarReenactor said:

Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2?

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The Kuchera maps are actually less than the 10:1... That is why people are posting the 10:1 maps now.

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  On 1/16/2025 at 4:52 PM, RevWarReenactor said:

Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2?

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  On 1/16/2025 at 4:53 PM, Interstate said:

The Kuchera maps are actually less than the 10:1... That is why people are posting the 10:1 maps now.

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I mostly use Kuchera as it seems to take into consideration temps and snow ratios. In a marginal temperture environment, the Kuchera most times shows less than the 10:1 ratio, and when it's colder and more favorable for snow growth, it'll show higher than 10:1.

I'm sure it's not an exact science, but it seems to give a better idea of what might end up being ground truth.

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