osfan24 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:23 PM, mappy said: QPF map for GEM - pivotal doesn't have the zoomed in version available. pssst, snowfall maps are dumb, stop looking at them. Expand LOL, over an inch for me. Looks amazing but I'm going to take the under on that. Either way, nice to see we are starting to A) establish there is going to be a wave in our area and also to narrow those goalposts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:23 PM, mappy said: QPF map for GEM - pivotal doesn't have the zoomed in version available. pssst, snowfall maps are dumb, stop looking at them. Expand Not on the ones we jack on! Those are brilliant and totally reliable! (lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:25 PM, Warm Nose said: Just confirming since I'm a bit slow: Now we're giving credence to the GFS aka 'worst verifying model' (according to earlier posts) since it shows what people want? Expand Correct. Also because it matches all the other guidance. But mostly because it shows what we want. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 We need this one to dump 8” on @North Balti Zen’s yard to solidify staying put. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 GFS compared to its past few runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Probably best to reserve judgement until the 12z Euro, but I'll pitch in anyway. The CMC/RGEM is probably the most amped/warmest scenario with the highest upside for snowfall totals N/W of i-95 especially near the blue ridge and MoCo/HoCo death band region. Not quite buying into it yet, but the GFS and ICON has trended closer to a more amped solution. For now, the latter camp is a more modest 2-4/3-5" scenario for all of the subforum including DC metro with little or no mixing/fall line issues. We'll see what the Euro says, and if the CMC trends a bit towards a "compromise". 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:25 PM, Bob Chill said: Seems like a multidecadal cycle there too. Such a hot and cold streak area over longer timescales. We suffered 7 years after 2016 but think about the 7 years prior to that.... maybe, just maybe, we back on a multi year streak. Why? Beats me lol Expand PDO and AO, we got a hostile cycle of both to coincide...not good. So far both have kinda flipped this year...if we go into a favorable cycle of both simultaneously.... yea baby 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:25 PM, osfan24 said: LOL, over an inch for me. Looks amazing but I'm going to take the under on that. Either way, nice to see we are starting to A) establish there is going to be a wave in our area and also to narrow those goalposts. Expand Even cutting the GEM in half is great. But GFS/Icon are better for places SE of 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:24 PM, StormyClearweather said: But they're so pretty and pink... Expand We always hope to get Barney'd with purple!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 UKMET looks like it's gonna be a nice hit for all of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:46 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: UKMET looks like it's gonna be a nice hit for all of us. Expand Better west of BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Ukie also tracks the fall line, but somewhat better S&E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:47 PM, yoda said: Better west of BR Expand edit; ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:24 PM, North Balti Zen said: The rare tiny bullseye over my house. Sold. Expand Won't last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GEFS looks really nice for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:52 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: GEFS looks really nice for this. Expand 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:48 PM, yoda said: Expand Decent...but I want that 4! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:52 PM, RevWarReenactor said: Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2? Expand The Kuchera maps are actually less than the 10:1... That is why people are posting the 10:1 maps now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:53 PM, Paleocene said: Expand SOLD 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:51 PM, Interstate said: Won't last long. Expand Just was fun seeing on any one run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I like this trend. Nice snowpack then Vodka cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 In one cycle 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Potential timing on Sunday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Let's keep increasing snowfall to the event! and not lose any! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:52 PM, RevWarReenactor said: Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2? Expand On 1/16/2025 at 4:53 PM, Interstate said: The Kuchera maps are actually less than the 10:1... That is why people are posting the 10:1 maps now. Expand I mostly use Kuchera as it seems to take into consideration temps and snow ratios. In a marginal temperture environment, the Kuchera most times shows less than the 10:1 ratio, and when it's colder and more favorable for snow growth, it'll show higher than 10:1. I'm sure it's not an exact science, but it seems to give a better idea of what might end up being ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 This is about the same amount of lead time before the 1/6 event that the GFS started to get a clue and hone in on the further south solution. We're obviously looking for a different trend here but good to see 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:52 PM, RevWarReenactor said: Why are we posting these Kuchara maps, aren't temps and daylight going to eat a lot of that t? What is 4 inches kuchara realistically in this setup for I-95? 1-2?Kuchera has more to do with lift vs temps I believe, combination . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 New England will rejoice on the GFS. One more juiced up run and we're going to meet climo snowfall for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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