Heisy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 If the rgem was any sign for the cmc, it’ll probably be a really good hit . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, snowdude said: Except the Germans never bombed Pearl Harbor. That would be the JMA. What do they say? No one cares. Lol it's famous movie quote from Animal House- 1978. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, wasnow215 said: Lol it's famous movie quote from Animal House- 1978. Figured I was missing something lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: If the rgem was any sign for the cmc, it’ll probably be a really good hit . how do you get these models so early bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Gfs still a no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, T. August said: Gfs still a no It tried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, T. August said: Gfs still a no It will get there by Sunday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: ICON at 0z had a pretty significant move north from its 18z run. Here’s the precip comparison. 0z top 18z bottom That's a nice shift of about 75 miles!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 00z CMC is good for points NW - doesn’t quite work out for the city and burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, winter_warlock said: That's a nice shift of about 75 miles!!! Are ya surprised? Lol I'm wondering if anybody listening to the better posters here saying that models are gonna jump around a lot at this range this time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Are ya surprised? Lol I'm wondering if anybody listening to the better posters here saying that models are gonna jump around a lot at this range this time... Nope not surprised at all lol. Models won't come into any kind of agreement untill probably Friday in my opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z CMC is good for points NW - doesn’t quite work out for the city and burbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Gotta wonder if it's over-amplified. Then again with all the models jumping around it's hard to say what's over-whatevering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 CMC has been north for the last few runs. This doesn’t look much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, mattie g said: CMC has been north for the last few runs. This doesn’t look much different. it was rain at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Ukie 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie Well...at least it's been consistent, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Ukie The 2 trashiest models show most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Dr no no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Ji said: The 2 trashiest models show most snow Ukie verification is 2nd to Euro and Canadian 3rd. Don't know where Icon is, but has snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Horrible run. Nothing like ukmet or icon or Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Dr no no AI has been consistent with a hit thru 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Ji said: Horrible run. Nothing like ukmet or icon or Canadian Euro can flip-flop like the best of them. 3.5 days away still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 LWX AFD from this morning... mentions the ICON again LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Deep and broad longwave troughing will span across nearly the entire width of the CONUS by Sunday morning, with high amplitude ridging on either side across the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic. Locally, we`ll be situated within southwesterly flow aloft on the front side of the trough. A low amplitude shortwave will progress through the base of the trough and rapidly approach the area from the southwest during the day on Sunday. Model guidance is still showing a large amount of spread with respect to the handling of this disturbance. Amongst deterministic guidance, some models (the Euro, ICON, and UKMET) show a light snowfall event occurring on Sunday as this disturbance moves overhead, others (the Canadian) show a more amplified system with both ice and snow across the area, while others yet (the GFS) show no precipitation across the majority of the area. Such spread is also evident in ensemble modeling systems such as the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS. Probabilistically, a lighter snowfall event is the slightly favored solution, with a little over half the ensemble members showing a light snowfall event. There are a fair number of ensemble members that also show no precipitation to the east of the mountains. The heavier precipitation scenario with mixing (as advertised by the deterministic Canadian) appears to be a bit of an outlier solution within the probability space at this juncture. Any precipitation that occurs with this system should wind down Sunday evening, with dry conditions to the east of the mountains for Sunday night. Upslope snow showers will linger in the Alleghenies through Sunday night, and potentially even Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 EPS looks pretty good. Throwing out the CMC, this looks like a weak wave moving along an Arctic front with the potential to produce a quick hitting minor snow event, with legit cold coming in on the heels. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The gfs ladies and gentlemen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Ji said: The gfs ladies and gentlemen A stronger piece of vorticity pops a surface low sooner/a bit closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 And the heavier snow is south and east. @psuhoffman 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 A stronger piece of vorticity pops a surface low sooner/a bit closer to the coast.Trending stronger more north over past 3 runs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 And the heavier snow is south and east. [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention]It’s all about you like usual 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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