As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Sey-Mour Snow]

23 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'd be surprised if it gets that's far west , but hey... Nothing world surprise me

I wouldn’t, there’s going to be a weenie band well west.. 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I wouldn’t, there’s going to be a weenie band well west.. 

Well we have 3 days to finalize things

[Go Kart Mozart]

The Canucks still very ramped up.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The Canucks still very ramped up.

They’ve had this every single run for 4-5 days now 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like a wet snow here to start then drying out. That’s good because powder will blow away and sublimate next week.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a wet snow here to start then drying out. That’s good because powder will blow away and sublimate next week.

Here will be the typical fluff bomb like had for Xmas. Hopefully not too much blowing 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a wet snow here to start then drying out. That’s good because powder will blow away and sublimate next week.

Get some meat in the snow before the cold shot. Hopefully we can sharpen up the vort one more tick and make this a low end warning event. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Starting to see some signals like we discussed yesterday of fronto banding and possible big amounts in a zone 

2-4” WOR,  3-6” EOR

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Get some meat in the snow before the cold shot. Hopefully we can sharpen up the vort one more tick and make this a low end warning event. 

Could have some meat even inland as it’s not that cold just off the deck. Maybe even a little mix here to start depending on track. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could have some meat even inland as it’s not that cold just off the deck. Maybe even a little mix here to start depending on track. 

I’d like the GGEM to happen 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d like the GGEM to happen 

Track in GGEM would jackpot west of us. Prob Hudson valley. I want the sharpness of the GGEM except not having the trough that far west. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Track in GGEM would jackpot west of us. Prob Hudson valley. I want the sharpness of the GGEM except not having the trough that far west. 

I’d still prefer 3-6” of mashed vs. 5-10” of fluff 

[CoastalWx]

If somehow I break 4”, I’m buying a round at the next gtg.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d still prefer 3-6” of mashed vs. 5-10” of fluff 

10” of fluff? Don’t think we’re on that train yet. 

[CoastalWx]

No Lovern here.

[CoastalWx]

Kevin, Ray, and Will are the only ones that get that lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

10” of fluff? Don’t think we’re on that train yet. 

There will be a zone of that somewhere 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There will be a zone of that somewhere 

Moving too quick. It’s not that type.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Put it in quick. I’m that type.

What in the sam hell?

[CoastalWx]

Actually, just looking at the GFS, that’s pretty cold here. Northeast flow actually advecting colder air. That would be nice.

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

10” of fluff? Don’t think we’re on that train yet. 

Yeah... Kev  doesn't want to get blown or fluffed.. what's this world coming to?

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Moving too quick. It’s not that type.

Would need to intensify more rapidly…ala 12/29-30/93. That was like a sharper/more intense version of one of the systems with very strong fronto on the cold side. 

[Typhoon Tip]

late to the party this morning; this has likely already been discussed.   the eps/geps/gefs mean all were a step in the direction of coherence on this thing.  this is a positive for event enthusiasts

for me, i have the same approach to this that i did two or so days ago...  this needs to be < 96 if not 72 hours before the confidence slope.   it's due to the fast nature of the flow in a very compressed field.  this circumstance lowers the confidence more than typical, relative to lead times, for a couple of reasons.

1  the suppressive/negative interference flirts with being total ( enough to be a non-event).  whether it is enough to completely miss ( yesterday's op gfs') or backs off enough to gets us into the action (op cmc) ... that requires higher resolution that a, is better provided by the operational runs, and b ...gets better in shorter terms.  bringing this up because more typically ... a general risk assessment might rely more on the various ens means, but this circumstantially makes that challenging.   this is an anomalously compressed total circulation mode predicament.  the 06z gfs combine with the modest, albeit real, spread on the eps on the nw side of the track mean, which in itself, are clues that support the < 72 hour philosophy for me.

2 the impact corridor of any system is narrowed/stretched along the dx.  there's other aspects like fast motion of the storm not being able to overcome the moisture sink further west of the center... nuances et al, limits the impact region so narrowly, this compounds reason 1 above even more, because we're asking the models to then be very precise about at a range they are even more challenged to be accurate. 

..the two factors above are always in play when your dealing with these impacted flow regimes - it's a matter of how much.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EURO is a crusher for extreme Western New England, banding sig for Hudson Valley... 72-84 hours out  by tonight would hope we can get in the range with a least some goalposts and continuity.. 

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGjust rolled his eyes so hard he's dizzy.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Would need to intensify more rapidly…ala 12/29-30/93. That was like a sharper/more intense version of one of the systems with very strong fronto on the cold side. 

I was thinking of that one the other day. Man I wish I could see radar from that one. I know it's not the quality as it would be shortly after Doppler got installed but still.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the difference between the CMC and ECMWF is quite small. really difficult forecast

this is the high sensitivity i was just discussing.   one is hard pressed to see differences there that would typically inspire one version or the other yet we're seeing enormous implications from these very minute differences -

it's all because of the compression circumstance. 

i just suggest people try to take these model runs on the chin, in both directions, until we get inside of 84 hours with the full compliments

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I mean I immediately posted that the ens from the real models looked better after trashing the lousy ICON, but keep drinking away with ice#s.

oh there's a separate phenomenon with this engagement that's ( frankly..) a bit manic in the proper psycho-babble sense...

it almost doesn't matter what the model is, reputation and quantitative skill ..etc etc, so long as it paints the illustration that triggers -

that's why when enjoying a cup of morning coffee and cracking open the overnight's frivolities ... i seldom any more move my own needle on any inspiration or interest, motivated by the shared optimism that is apparent in here.   because hands down... i go look at the synoptics and i'm like, 'what the f are they talking about'   hahaa

[UnitedWx]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Get some meat in the snow before the cold shot. Hopefully we can sharpen up the vort one more tick and make this a low end warning event. 

That would be perfect... and probably get slop into areas like Weymouth

[CoastalWx]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

That would be perfect... and probably get slop into areas like Weymouth

I'll take a little slop to start and get a hardy glacier for next week.

[JC-CT]

Look ma, snow!