As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

High end advisory/low end warning is going to double my season total. No complaints.

Where are you at on seasonal totals?

[FlashFreeze]

37° went from sunny to cloudy pretty quick, flurries now

[Connecticut Appleman]

First few flakes coming down - sky does not have the usual menacing look to it like it normally does when it means business.

[DJln491]

obs thread coming or is this it?

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Where are you at on seasonal totals?

A little more than I thought 7.7” 

[ORH_wxman]

Thinking 3-6 here. Maybe 4-8 if we do  good ratios. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

EC looks decent up here with the banding. 3-6/4-7 still on track. 

All systems go. It seems like some folks thought the storm was already supposed to be full bore instead of infancy stages with the pieces coming together this evening 

[Kitz Craver]

Sun came out and it is downright balmy, it needs to cool off and quick

[JC-CT]

For lolz

[Greg]

Here is the latest HREF Ensembles for snow lovers out there. The one the top is the "Mean" and the one on the bottom is the "Max". 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’m going with 6” here. 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Most models spitting out 0.25-0.35" qpf here so 3-5" at best, This is tracking just a bit to far SE, It looked better a few days ago.

 

34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

More fitting to my 3-5”

 

That map's just like the one from last night.  I wonder if they'll drop the warnings.   probably not.  My p/c is still calling for 3-7.  I see negative busts in store tor many.

Meanwhile, clouds beginning to show up now.

[CoastalWx]

Looking more like a wet snow here. With 1-2 maybe at the end that’s drier.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thinking 3-6 here. Maybe 4-8 if we do  good ratios. 

I went 3-5 probably more like 3-4 here. 

[JC-CT]

I wonder how Ryan is feeling about going 6-9 for most of CT

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

A little more than I thought 7.7” 

I have you buried at 13.6”

[weatherwiz]

Parts of the deep South will end up with more than a good chunk of us may  Was looking at LFT on bufkit...pretty wild for down there.

[DJln491]

so now NWS is going more bullish dragging the yellow across almost all of ct?

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

First few flakes coming down - sky does not have the usual menacing look to it like it normally does when it means business.

Yeah, I don’t really like seeing that “broken slate gray” look but it’s early still.   Couple of flakes spitting here in Greenfield.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, DJln491 said:

so now NWS is going more bullish dragging the yellow across almost all of ct?

 

Well why wouldn’t they based on trends today ?

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I wonder how Ryan is feeling about going 6-9 for most of CT

It seems to sound like he's taking that from the HREF mean that was posted.

[weathafella]

Right now I’m at 42.  How fast it cools and the timing with heavier rates will dictate the outcome.  While I’ll lose some qpf I may make it up on the back end per latest meso guidance.  

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

It seems to sound like he's taking that from the HREF mean that was posted.

A rip and reader, he is not

[weatherwiz]

56 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya don’t like the latest nowcast trends for that main band out way out west being the main show potentially west of the river 

Been a growing concern of mine the last day. It will be fun and wild for a time under the band but outside the band snowgrowth and ratios will be very questionable. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Been a growing concern of mine the last day. It will be fun and wild for a time under the band but outside the band snowgrowth and ratios will be very questionable. 

The main show for most of New England is just starting to blossom ESE of DC on DOX radar. Will want to see some good banding develop from that. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

A few big lazy flakes at my MIL’s place in Gardner. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

A few big lazy flakes at my MIL’s place in Gardner. 

Milfs place?

[tavwtby]

i saw a flake ..start the obs thread!!! couple small stragglers, but it's definitely looking and feeling like it's coming now compared to about an hour ago, wind is also increasing a bit...radar downstream in CPA looking stout, we'll see if it all comes together

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The main show for most of New England is just starting to blossom ESE of DC on DOX radar. Will want to see some good banding develop from that. 

Mesosyanlsys is encouraging in that regard. Has me cautiously optimistic good banding gets much of the region. 

[BombsAway1288]

The warmer we get today the longer it’s gonna take to get below freezing and have a significant impact on type of snow.  I see most of the area has “cooled off” to about 44-45. Still a long way to go