As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[jbenedet]

MOS surface temps are not used enough around here on the coast. 
 

That would help balance these clown maps out in the warmer areas.

 

Blasphemy.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The meaningful stuff is all snow..  Better man snow before the great freeze, glacier pack.. Thinking a good 4-6"+ for you

It will struggle until after 8p I think. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Clouding up now and 31. Temps should stay 32-34 here today . Wetbulb is 29

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Radar looks amped, west and ahead of schedule to our south west, clouds will help like Kevin said especially west 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Clouding up now and 31. Temps should stay 32-34 here today . Wetbulb is 29

30⁰ here currently, has been cloudy all morning. The ground is frozen solid, 1 inch below the surface, so most of what falls should stick at least.

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

MOS surface temps are not used enough around here on the coast. 
 

That would help balance these clown maps out in the warmer areas.

 

Blasphemy.

I always use them in situations like this to gauge evaporative cooling potential.  One thing is for sure early, the 36/27 at LGA at 15Z won't be right, its 40/30 now

[Prismshine Productions]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Radar looks amped, west and ahead of schedule to our south west, clouds will help like Kevin said especially west 

West of what had been modeled?

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I always use them in situations like this to gauge evaporative cooling potential.  One thing is for sure early, the 36/27 at LGA at 15Z won't be right, its 40/30 now

It’s much better than the op guidance. That’s my main point. 
 

But yea, during warm-ups the tendency is also for these to be slightly too cold.

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Radar looks amped, west and ahead of schedule to our south west, clouds will help like Kevin said especially west 

it does look pretty amped but short term models aren't buying it

[CoastalWx]

Seems on par to me with the fronto fields. That stuff in PA will be the Berks band probably. 

[jbenedet]

Looking at radar—looks like it’s moving into our area by noon…

Ahead of schedule…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

36 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

2-5 doesn't mean 2 everywhere. But yeah I think there's a risk of busting low on both ends.

If we drew a map, it would basically look like this clown.
 

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If we drew a map, it would basically look like this clown.
 

The issue is that especially west and/or in the hills, anything higher than 10:1 is going to bust your forecast low

[dendrite]

Some of that leading edge may not be reaching the ground too.

[CoastalWx]

Noon? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, JC-CT said:

The issue is that especially west and/or in the hills, anything higher than 10:1 is going to bust your forecast low

Yea they’ll get the 6-7” lolis but most locales where people live will be in the 3-5” range. 

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea they’ll get the 6-7” lolis but most locales where people live will be in the 3-5” range. 

Ha, just as I posted clouds and cool...the clouds parted and now it feels like spring. Birds chirping away...sun is currently warming the ground, evident by the steam rising from the ground.

[Damage In Tolland]

Crank it thru your homes!

https://x.com/punt_rd/status/1880723518230528069?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[ineedsnow]

13z HRRR increased a bit

[jbenedet]

It’s a beautiful morning. Could get by with a sweatshirt during the dog walk. 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Noon? 

Over by sunset?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

38 to 40° up and down the valley so I think we’re going to waste the early precipitation.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Over by sunset?

Winding down for sunset mass?

[UnitedWx]

I was up to 36° here, but down to 33 now that the clouds have started moving in. Time to make sure the snowblower starts

[weatherwiz]

59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12k has some banding up to ALB-Bodies-LEB. Kind of a mess between areas of main forcing though.

Can see that setting up on mesoanalysis 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

38 to 40° up and down the valley so I think we’re going to waste the early precipitation.  

It dropped right away as soon as the clouds moved in here in Westfield.  I don't think it's much of a concern in this area considering how cold the ground is 

[CoastalWx]

It’s mild aloft too so yeah may use up some QPF to cool,  but it’s a steady cold push later today. 

[jbenedet]

40/35 PSM

[CoastalWx]

Lmao at the RGEM. Please don’t ever mention that model again. We knew.

[Hoth]

Roads were a sheet of ice for the first five miles of my run. Much better on the back half. The prospect of covering my grass tonight has me as excited as a KU at this point.