As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who is getting 2-3”? 
Most common numbers will be 6-8” over a wide swath 

The shoreline, especially east, could definitely struggle with temps

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Our 2-5” call for CT and frankly for most of sne away from the ocean looks on track. Some lolis to 6 or 7 but nothing widespread.

I’d say that’s definitely possible , but more like the 25th percentile. Where 4-7 is the 50th percentile and 8-9 is the 75th percentile . We shall see what verifies. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, JC-CT said:

The shoreline, especially east, could definitely struggle with temps

I was thinking more like CT. I wonder if he thinks his area is getting 2”?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

The shoreline, especially east, could definitely struggle with temps

Def think shoreline temps New Haven east will be an issue at first at least 

[ineedsnow]

FWIW the Nam looks better

[Prismshine Productions]

next greedy mofo who wishes for a messenger shuffle for the sole purpose of being jackpot'ed deserves to be warm nosed... the reggie runs a few days ago would have been better off overall for the board

[H2Otown_WX]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Our 2-5” call for CT and frankly for most of sne away from the ocean looks on track. Some lolis to 6 or 7 but nothing widespread.

Nah NWS has 4-10"

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I was thinking more like CT. I wonder if he thinks his area is getting 2”?

2-5 doesn't mean 2 everywhere. But yeah I think there's a risk of busting low on both ends.

[CoastalWx]

Nam would be decent here.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

FWIW the Nam looks better

Did it? thought it looked a tad weaker and east. 

[Kitz Craver]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Our 2-5” call for CT and frankly for most of sne away from the ocean looks on track. Some lolis to 6 or 7 but nothing widespread.

I think your low end accumulation of 2” might be scant, we’ll see

[Spanks45]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Our 2-5” call for CT and frankly for most of sne away from the ocean looks on track. Some lolis to 6 or 7 but nothing widespread.

Looks like the mesos have some banding around this area...maybe due to the low deepening a bit later. I was fully anticipating the lollies to be in eastern PA/Jersey, then to our northeast. Nowcast for sure though.. We have been 'lucky' so to speak so far this season, so maybe that continues. Get enough snow for the kids to sled and make it look like winter, when it should, that is all I ask....

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Did it? thought it looked a tad weaker and east. 

More qpf though in SNE

[dendrite]

12k has some banding up to ALB-Bodies-LEB. Kind of a mess between areas of main forcing though.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

2-5 doesn't mean 2 everywhere. But yeah I think there's a risk of busting low on both ends.

He could be right. He could be wrong. He doesn’t know, we don’t know, no one really ever knows . We just don’t know 

[jbenedet]

12z NAM op has surface temps peaking in the mid 30’s today.

But NAM MOS has PSM  with high of 42, and not going below freezing until 3z tomorrow.

Guess which one is completely wrong.

[JC-CT]

[Prismshine Productions]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Nah NWS has 4-10"

yeah, screw you Albany for that... They hoiseted the warning too early so now have to sit with their pants down and lightly tick totals downward

[dryslot]

47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

AI knows. Embrace it and let it into your lives.

Skynets better

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr persistence in lower totals is concerning.

Now your being a debbie.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

NAM op has surface temps peaking in the mid 30’s.

NAM mos PSM - high of 42, don’t go below feeezing until 3z tomorrow.

925s are very cold and its been cold for a while, don't think it's much of an issue, def the further south and east you are at first will be a bit more of an issue 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Skynets better

Now your being a debbie.

latest hrrr has .75" qpf all snow for Weymouth lol 

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

yeah, screw you Albany for that... They hoiseted the warning too early so now have to sit with their pants down and lightly tick totals downward

For me it's Upton. They at least backed off the SECS amounts they had yesterday with 8-14"

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

925s are very cold and its been cold for a while, don't think it's much of an issue, def the further south and east you are at first will be a bit more of an issue 

yes atmosphere is cold above the surface
 

But - it’s a fast mover, ground will be warm and surface temps warm at onset. I’m concerned overall ratios and white rain, before the flip to good rates. 
 

I’m expecting 4” imby. And more confidence it ends up lower than higher. 3-4” highest confidence.

 

[H2Otown_WX]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

FWIW the Nam looks better

SREFS?

[TalcottWx]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like a solid 3-6”/4-7” event for many. Accept and enjoy the deep winter feel this week.

Excited for the Arctic feel. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

yes atmosphere is cold above the surface
 

Buts- it’s a fast mover, ground will be warm at onset. I’m concerned overall ratios and white rain. 

At least we made DAW great again

 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

At least we made DAW great again

 

I hate you for this. 
 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

latest hrrr has .75" qpf all snow for Weymouth lol 

Zero chance it’s all snow.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Zero chance it’s all snow.

The meaningful stuff is all snow..  Better man snow before the great freeze, glacier pack.. Thinking a good 4-6"+ for you

[SouthCoastMA]

6z wasn't great for here. maybe a coating.