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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Patrick-02540

Patrick-02540

Posted
Posted

My realistic goal is to beat the 6" I got in the overperforming December event here.  That would bring me to 21 for the season.  That's what I will be rooting for. 
My total fantasy goal is to be sitting under some good banding and approach 12. 

But for the next few hours, I'm heading out to get wood, clean the stove, and make sure there's enough tonic for the Bombay.  

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

BZ is in the house.

weathafella
weathafella

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Probably a good time to remind everyone:  

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wokeupthisam said:

Hints of the low having trouble consolidating in the compressed flow?

I think there are alot of little nuisances going on. But this is continuing a common trend we've seen with storms within compressed flows these last at least few winters. We get some really amped looks and everyone gets excited, there is an expectation there will be a cave geared towards the more amped models we we start to see say this around 48h. Then we get inside 36 hours and its a collapse and trend towards the less amped. Let's say that is the result when all said and done here...then clearly there is something within this 0h-72h window that forecast models struggle with mightily. There is something within the physics that models seem to be extremely sensitive too.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

HRRR and RAP are pretty weak sauce at the moment. I’d like to see them ramp up a bit today. 

This is a big flag right now, IMO. At least the HRRR (haven't checked the RAP) doesn't seem like it gets any banding going. Or if it does it is nothing to sneeze at. 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is going to be a total nowcast. I am really not sure what to make of the QPF outputs. I feel like outside of the heavier fronto banding the QPF is going to underperform. The NAM has me really nervous too with what looks like the idea of two bands (one centered around Albany and the second northeastern Mass into northeast CT/far northwest RI maybe?). The GFS also kind of hints at this too but seems to phase the bands together and CT into northeast MA gets smoked. 

I saw how both show those banding ideas.  I guess it is a matter of where they happen. My initial thought of 4"-8" is super safe, but, where ever those bands do set up, they COULD bring those those totals up with pops of 10" amounts in certain area's. 

Otherwise, pleased with knowing we are solid for getting 4"-8". At least the snow will stay on the ground with the cold weather coming until something else comes up ( hopefully next weekend ).

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We tried to tell them. Anything over 6 is going to be isolated, if it happens at all

They’ll be an area that does I think. Probably not us. But this is hauling and I’m not sure it has enough meat for those widespread amounts. We shall see. 

At least we got to see how shitty the Canadian guidance was for this. Only took down over 1” of QPF for some areas. No big deal lol.

Euro did come west and caved a bit, but based on guidance today, it’s not like it seemed when yesterday people were naked high fiving and slapping balls and dongs on each others face. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They’ll be an area that does I think. Probably not us. But this is hauling and I’m not sure it has enough meat for those widespread amounts. We shall see. 

At least we got to see how shitty the Canadian guidance was for this. Only took down over 1” of QPF for some areas. No big deal lol.

Euro did come west and caved a bit, but based on guidance today, it’s not like it seemed when yesterday people were naked high fiving and slapping balls and dongs on each others face. 

At the end of the day it looks close to a typical 70/30 euro win (talking inside of 72h….it lost the medium range battle). Unless this can tuck in a bit more than guidance currently says. It’s still a decent event but widespread 8-12 with higher lollis doesn’t look very likely which is basically what GFS/Canadian guidance had at one point (with much less near coast) 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At the end of the day it looks close to a typical 70/30 euro win. Unless this can tuck in a bit more than guidance currently says. It’s still a decent event but widespread 8-12 with higher lollis doesn’t look very likely which is basically what GFS/Canadian guidance had at one point (with much less near coast) 

Euro OP wasn't good either, and also drank some kool-aid at 12z yesterday. What seems to have done very well is the skynet.

 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The black ice is crazy out there this morning. Even main roads had ice, i saw cars sliding everywhere, it was bad

I was going to do some errands around 6:30 this morning (may day started at 4:00 cleaning a dog pee/poop party :lol: ). I go outside and everything was glazed...I was not chancing driving anywhere. Errands weren't that important.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At the end of the day it looks close to a typical 70/30 euro win (talking inside of 72h….it lost the medium range battle). Unless this can tuck in a bit more than guidance currently says. It’s still a decent event but widespread 8-12 with higher lollis doesn’t look very likely which is basically what GFS/Canadian guidance had at one point (with much less near coast) 

A little nervous we waste some QPF cooling off between like 7-8:30 or so. That’s when it goes to town too. Nam was a little quicker to drop. I’m just hoping to break 4”. Should be decent out your way. 

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