As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

0z HRRR is meh

Not for near BOS and SE MA. Pretty nice look there. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

People were locking in the RGEM, Euro starting moving towards it, people called it a cave..then all other guidance started moving back towards the Euro. A compromise, where the euro will likely end up closest with these latest trends 

And I get to go forth with my May 1st thread  

[Prismshine Productions]

funny how I moved from one shit NWS area (CAE) to another shit one in Albany...

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

People were locking in the RGEM, Euro starting moving towards it, people called it a cave..then all other guidance started moving back towards the Euro. A compromise, where the euro will likely end up closest with these latest trends 

Great. Will be lucky for 3” here then. The Meh-rrimack Valley is a disaster for weather enthusiasts. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Hrrr has 5-10 for most of SNE 

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Remember when Forky had this running inland ? There were posts he had rain into NJ and NYC  lmao 

Yup, he made a post saying “what’s stopping this from going further west” 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hrrr has 5-10 for most of SNE 

Good hit through SNE. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Yup, he made a post saying “what’s stopping this from going further west” 

And just like all other busts.. disappears 

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

 

 

So...

 

My thought process is that while interior se MA may catch up late, they will start a bit slowly, so I just have them catching up. But I am concerned that spot may be another max.

[HoarfrostHubb]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

not terrible but not great 

Roads out here are bad btw.  Ice ice baby

[H2Otown_WX]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

funny how I moved from one shit NWS area (CAE) to another shit one in Albany...

BOX is the best office in the area. I can't comment on GYX or BTV but I know OceanStWx is a good forecaster for the former.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

BOX is the best office in the area. I can't comment on GYX or BTV but I know OceanStWx is a good forecaster for the former.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My thought process is that while interior se MA may catch up late, they will start a bit slowly, so I just have them catching up. But I am concerned thst spot may be another max.

A lot of areas out east will start a bit slow. Prob a few rain drops or white rain at the onset while initial banding is west and then I’d expect it to all of the sudden go nuts. 

[H2Otown_WX]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not for near BOS and SE MA. Pretty nice look there. 

Why so much QPF there? CF enhancement or just the rapid deepening of the low?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Don’t let Ekster see this. 

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

then can you give me insight as to how Albany sucks so bad?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

Why so much QPF there? CF enhancement or just the rapid deepening of the low?

They are in a great spot as the midlevels start closing off. CF will enhance a bit too but it’s mostly getting into that great zone just as the midlevels close off…can help intensify banding and perhaps prolong it an extra hour or two. 
 

That zone could still shift a bit though and we’ll just have to nowcast where any smaller meso bands might set up. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Good hit.

I’d take that and run here. 6-8” would be therapy for the soul 

[ineedsnow]

0z NAM chasing convection again

[kdxken]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Remember when Forky had this running inland ? There were posts he had rain into NJ and NYC  lmao 

Was he the same kook that had 14 to 18 in of cement away from the coast?

[The 4 Seasons]

Hrrr looks good to me not as robust as 12z but still high end adv to low end warning for most. Considering we were staring down the barrel of a non event whiff 3 days I'd take that all day.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not for near BOS and SE MA. Pretty nice look there. 

I think west of Worcester and north of the Pike should prepare for mundane and just be happy that we’re getting accumulating snow.

 Any ticks east or weakening and out here we will be looking at a  2”- 3” type deal. 

I was hoping Berkshire East could pick up 6”+ but not really confident on that. 

[8611Blizz]

Oceanstwx is the one who knocks...

[J Paul Gordon]

So the original 3-5 we were being called for seems to be correct. Maybe 6 if we're lucky. OK with that, ground white with a waning moon during a frigid snap. It should be our best hit so far. We got 4" last Saturday, but that's gone now. Could be a lot worse, the way this winter has been running.

BOX still has us at 8"

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of areas out east will start a bit slow. Prob a few rain drops or white rain at the onset while initial banding is west and then I’d expect it to all of the sudden go nuts. 

If you take a look at the latest NAM/GFS in Bufkit, even out Scooter's way it's like an hour of maybe catpaws and then it starts ripping. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

Oceanstwx is the one who knocks...

I already have the hair.

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

then can you give me insight as to how Albany sucks so bad?

Speaking not of ALY, but the NWS more broadly, I think there is a tendency to get sucked in by the QPF. The pressures of short staffing combined with added duties beyond the forecast are leading to more and more step by step building of the forecast. It's great for duplication and amending the forecast, but it can lead to less critical thinking at times. For instance, does the QPF max location make physical sense? Is the storm moving slow enough for widespread double digit snowfall? etc.

That's why I like coming here and talking about the weather. It forces me to think about why I'm doing what I'm doing in the grids. And when in doubt I can always start high and adjust higher based off the KFS.

[ineedsnow]

0z NAM bumped up..  hopefully one of these runs it wont focus on chasing convection and we see precip values increase again

[wokeupthisam]

NAM isn't biting run after run, if 0Z suite ticks weaker/flatter still, hmmm may be on to something... 

[Prismshine Productions]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Speaking not of ALY, but the NWS more broadly, I think there is a tendency to get sucked in by the QPF. The pressures of short staffing combined with added duties beyond the forecast are leading to more and more step by step building of the forecast. It's great for duplication and amending the forecast, but it can lead to less critical thinking at times. For instance, does the QPF max location make physical sense? Is the storm moving slow enough for widespread double digit snowfall? etc.

That's why I like coming here and talking about the weather. It forces me to think about why I'm doing what I'm doing in the grids. And when in doubt I can always start high and adjust higher based off the KFS.

let me guess, NWS only hired people with degrees?