As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Bull’s-eye over Kevin and snow hole over Ineedsleep and Dave? I can’t see that happening like that.

Probably not, but a small chance of this could actually happen if the track and the dispersement of the banding held like this. However, this is the 18Z model suite. The 0Z will be very important to see how tight these goal posts really are.

[ineedsnow]

Always a chance 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

pretty decent cut back out east 20% on euro, about 10% out west in SNE

[Prismshine Productions]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Just ate at Papa Gallos in Keene it was nice to have family time and get a little break from this.. looks like everything came down a bit. Hopefully 0z is better 

damn fine location choice

[OceanStWx]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Can we have him post here?

Poor guy just wanted to make a better snow ratio.

I actually wouldn't hate the equation if it just capped ratios on the cold side. You could have a scenario where the lower end of the DGZ (-12C) is the warmest temp in the column, and the forecast ratio would be like 22:1. We know those single digit snowfalls can often be Arctic sand.

[amarshall]

Duxbury destroyer


.

[mahk_webstah]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3-6”/4-7” and call it an evening. 

Yeah the bigger event is off the table pretty much unless we get lucky. Over and under is 4

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, amarshall said:

Duxbury destroyer


.

It’s gonna be funny watching the south shore to Tblizz jackpotting with 8-10” after all the hand wringing. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s gonna be funny watching the south shore to Tblizz jackpotting with 8-10” after all the hand wringing. 

I highly doubt that area is Jack 

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Duxbury destroyer


.

More like the Marshfield Hills area in that to be exact if one looks very closely.

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Duxbury destroyer


.

I'll sell 6" here (maybe 2"?) but I'll take the look on the GFS. I'd need 1 more solid tick at 0z

[8611Blizz]

She's  a fast mover thankfully. Looks like boston will be clear by 4AM. Time to clean up. Blowing and drifting will be a problem though.

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

damn fine location choice

Ya I love that place 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Funny how this all played out.. Euro 100% nailed the start time on this, gfs and RGEM were adamant on a start time near midday here.. Looks like a quick 6 hour thump.. If the only model we had was the Euro last 2 days, we'd be pretty excited right now.. 

[nutmegfriar]

Relatives' flight from TPA to BDX due to land tomorrow around 5:30 pm has already been cancelled.  Seems a bit much to me.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Best OMEGA is above the SGZ on the GFS....so perhaps some caution against assuming crazy ratios.

Not exactly a pristine cross hair sig.

It was at ORH…at least 12z gfs was. Beautiful crosshair…rip of clothes type stuff 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I highly doubt that area is Jack 

He nervous 

[Greg]

Where the 850 tacks in this will probably be the key.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

He nervous 

You play your school girl Debbie games every winter . Just post like a grown man instead of the negativity and whining. 

[Greg]

 

[OceanStWx]

Okay, I updated the snowfall. Probably going to piss off @wxeyeNH and make @dryslot happy.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Okay, I updated the snowfall. Probably going to piss off @wxeyeNH and make @dryslot happy.

[OceanStWx]

I am a little worried I'm maybe too heavy near the coast, and that the best banding ends up inland a bit. 

I'm also not quite as bullish as my neighbors on snow ratios (closer to BOX than anyone else).

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I am a little worried I'm maybe too heavy near the coast, and that the best banding ends up inland a bit. 

I'm also not quite as bullish as my neighbors on snow ratios (closer to BOX than anyone else).

Haven't seen the update yet, What do you have for ratios?  12-14:1?

[78Blizzard]

This is contrary to many met predictions (Stein for one) of the heaviest snow being in western areas.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I am a little worried I'm maybe too heavy near the coast, and that the best banding ends up inland a bit. 

I'm also not quite as bullish as my neighbors on snow ratios (closer to BOX than anyone else).

I’m nervous that ratios are going to be subpar outside of the banding. Probably barely 10:1 despite the airmass 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Haven't seen the update yet, What do you have for ratios?  12-14:1?

I capped the max around 15:1.

One thing I definitely am not comfortable with is having a third of an inch of QPF and using 20:1 ratios to get me a warning. That's John McClane on the runway stuff right there.

[tavwtby]

53 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Always a chance 

so you're saying there's a chance??

[ineedsnow]

10 to 1 but increased from 12z 

[weatherwiz]

The other reason I hate snow maps is they aren’t stimulating. There’s nothing like loading up bufkit, clicking the overview tab, hitting reset, checking off snow growth, checking off omega, checking that box next to omega, going into the precip panel, clicking snowfall and precipitation and setting snow ratio to Cobb…now that is one of the most stimulating sequences there is.