As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs looked like it reduced QPF too. For all the talk of euro cave, the rest of the guidance is also doing a hell of a cave toward it.

Qpf was .01 less here than at 12z - .82.  GFS held serve.

[Prismshine Productions]

I still think Albany screwed up upgrading my area to a warning... doubt we get over 6, I see that as the ceiling

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Qpf was .01 less here than at 12z - .82.  GFS held serve.

Don't look at total, some of that is today, well east mass is still a good bit, cut down the rest , we shall see.. consensus is coming though.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12z EURO JP me with 10"

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs with another good bump East.

I think it’s good to remember where we are coming from here. We’ve had some dog food seasons recently. 
 

A 3-6” storm with maybe some isolated higher amounts is nothing to sneeze at 

[78Blizzard]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don't look at total, some of that is today

That was just for the 2nd wave.  Total was 1.06.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

That was just for the 2nd wave.  Total was 1.06.

ya your area still gets hit by the goods, the western areas got cut back, we shall see... 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That’s a pretty decent wholesale cutback on the gfs. General 3-5”. Per that run, best chance for more than that is scooter to Bristol and Plymouth counties 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Fair to say now AIFS is the clear leader in the clubhouse up through 18z today it never had a bad run.. always in that 4-7" range 

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya your area still gets hit by the goods, the western areas got cut back, we shall see... 

Most of the models have shown E MA getting the best goods.

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya that was a big drop on GFS, now euro is the wettest piece of guidance funny enough.. Fun little storm .. 

Ooph, yup....2-4, lollies to 5 might be the way to go at this point around here. Maybe some fluff could get us a bit higher

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Ooph, yup....2-4, lollies to 5 might be the way to go at this point around here. Maybe some fluff could get us a bit higher

Keep the faith.. 2-4 seems really low, but who knows.. We aren't budging from our first call of 4-8" statewide besides the SE corner.. Will be a nowcast to determine best banding 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya your area still gets hit by the goods, the western areas got cut back, we shall see... 

there’s always a western extension of high ratio fluff which is what CT sees 

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya that was a big drop on GFS, now euro is the wettest piece of guidance funny enough.. Fun little storm .. 

so obviously it’s right

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

there’s always a western extension of high ratio fluff which is what CT sees 

Ratios should be great but going to need to get some good lift to do so. I’m worried that outside of the banding the lift may not be all that great and ratios won’t be the best. I debated going 4-7” but I do think at least part of the state gets into banding 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I think your RGEM pronouncements are premature.  

It was the first model to signal big...  its southeast move might 50 miles but it is locked. While I may. be wrong I'm planning on big doings nw of I95 including large snowfall frigates and higher ratios.  You should start seeing spotty 1/4S+ e PA near 3PM.

 

offline now.

 

[Johnno]

Bring em down

[Cyclone-68]

Probably not a popular opinion but if we’re looking at 3-4 inches here I’d rather skip it all together and keep the 4+ streak alive 

[78Blizzard]

21z RAP cut back in western areas, but held serve in eastern areas.  Was actually a bit colder since it was east of 15z, so the ratios are slightly better this time in the eastern areas.

[The 4 Seasons]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Keep the faith.. 2-4 seems really low, but who knows.. We aren't budging from our first call of 4-8" statewide besides the SE corner.. Will be a nowcast to determine best banding 

I concur 

[kazimirkai]

Anyone know what model Albany is seeing that would suggest anything like this?? It looks ridiculous

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, kazimirkai said:

Anyone know what model Albany is seeing that would suggest anything like this?? It looks ridiculous

Just older data , newer data is less amped and SE

[78Blizzard]

Just now, kazimirkai said:

Anyone know what model Albany is seeing that would suggest anything like this?? It looks ridiculous

1 in 10 chance so maybe there's an ensemble member that has blizzard conditions. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Anyone know what model Albany is seeing that would suggest anything like this?? It looks ridiculous

The KFS, which caved. 

[DJln491]

37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not sure if this update was posted.  Latest BOX map

 

They dragged that yellow line a little more to the SE vs previous update.  Surprising. Hartford was 4-6” now back to 6-8”

[moneypitmike]

Really running out of steam for up here.  My hopes lie with the Icon.  lol

I'll probably wind up with 3-4.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The KFS, which caved. 

What’s your call? Ive got 6-10” border to border . With a lot of 6-8” amounts 

[H2Otown_WX]

32 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I still think Albany screwed up upgrading my area to a warning... doubt we get over 6, I see that as the ceiling

You'll find that Albany, for lack of a better word...sucks. Also they will cherry pick totals to come closer to forecast verification. I flipped out about it a decade or so ago and they banned me from their FB page lmao.

[TheMainer]

Kind of surprised CAR is still going with this after things seem to be slipping away, still hoping for 5-6 here to help finally get the local snowmobile season started, but gut feeling isn't good

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1880742629731893248?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg