As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I'll shield my eyes when you are complaining about how you only got 7" and I got 9" lmao 

A few folks here are acting like it’s a 1-3” event . Just won’t be many double digits now . Which sucks, but it’s still a nice hit in SNE 

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Looks like the goalposts have narrowed. The SE of benchmark track and inland runner track are out, now the question is does the low go right over the benchmark or does it track inside the benchmark and go over the cape?

The center is staying offshore. It's not going over the cape at all. The real question now is where does the heaviest banding show-up and what will be the ratios when and if it does. As stated, that will determine the final heaviest possible accumulations of this storm.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

lol we just typed the same idea.. this is a solid depiction I have no idea what all the "meh" is about 

The 18z NAMs are decidedly meh.  Reggie is kind of meh.  Let’s see what the major leaguers come up with shortly.

[Sn0waddict]

lol RGEM. Still starts off warm but that was a total cave.  Thinking the GFS may come out of this one victorious. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

lol we just typed the same idea.. this is a solid depiction I have no idea what all the "meh" is about 

The “meh” is because I think too many get addicted to the higher end outputs. When you mentally start expecting a major major snowstorm with over 1” of QPF and then reality smacks you back to half that, there’s an emotional letdown. 
 

But in an absolute sense, this is still a pretty solid event….and there’s still a chance for some banding surprises too. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A few folks here are acting like it’s a 1-3” event . Just won’t be many double digits now . Which sucks, but it’s still a nice hit in SNE 

Absolutely!  We hope to avoid subsidence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I'll shield my eyes when you are complaining about how you only got 7" and I got 9" lmao 

....its funny because its true-

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Absolutely!  We hope to avoid subsidence.

Just give everyone 6-9”. That’s fair 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The 18z NAMs are decidedly meh.  Reggie is kind of meh.  Let’s see what the major leaguers come up with shortly.

RGEM has .6 to .8 frozen qpf for SNE, NAMs aren’t catching on yet, maybe the nail it? But I doubt it 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A few folks here are acting like it’s a 1-3” event . Just won’t be many double digits now . Which sucks, but it’s still a nice hit in SNE 

What time did you start drinking today?

[Allsnow]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

RGEM has .6 to .8 frozen qpf for SNE, NAMs aren’t catching on yet, maybe the nail it? But I doubt it 

Rgem isn’t very accurate with qpf amounts 

 

Take the under 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

solid consenus on .4 - .7" qpf with banding potential, yet all some can see is advisory level snows? Did we forget how to forecast snow?  Ya if we end up with only .2 to .4" precip then probably mostly advisory stuff. 

I'm just being a dick at this point....I agree its a low-end warning event.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

What time did you start drinking today?

You’ve disappeared all day pouting because you thought rain there. Suddenly it’s snow and you magically reappeared . LMAO

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just give everyone 6-9”. That’s fair 

Thinking much less here, maybe 2-4”? Once you get NW into Pomfret and towards 84 will see 6+

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

RGEM has .6 to .8 frozen qpf for SNE, NAMs aren’t catching on yet, maybe the nail it? But I doubt it 

NAMs have def been consistently the lowest on QPF aside from the previous Euro runs…but 12z Euro left the NAMs as the lowest now. I’ll feel a bit better if they bump up at 00z. 

[Greg]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

solid consenus on .4 - .7" qpf with banding potential, yet all some can see is advisory level snows? Did we forget how to forecast snow?  Ya if we end up with only .2 to .4" precip then probably mostly advisory stuff. 

I'll try to explain. If one gets .4-.7 with about 1:10 ratios only and with a 9–10-hour window then it's about 4-7" of snow. If one has everything going for them, such as ratios 13:1 with the best omega banding, elevation, then the roof would be about a 10-12". Generally, that's what we have here. It's not going to be a widespread situation.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve disappeared all day pouting because you thought rain there. Suddenly it’s snow and you magically reappeared . LMAO

I am away and just now catching up. But good luck with 12-16 there.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

PVD Bruins game at 3 tomorrow what time is go time 

Let me know how Lysell looks

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, Greg said:

I'll try to explain. If one gets .4-.7 with about 1:10 ratios only and with a 9–10-hour window then it's about 4-7" of snow. If one has everything going for them, such as ratios 13:1 with the best omega banding, elevation, then the roof would be about a 10-12". Generally, that's what we have here. It's not going to be a widespread situation.

Widespread 4-8" is likely, with a pretty large but narrow stripe of 8-10" .. that's been my thinking all along, through some ups and downs, but still looking like that's where we are headed..  Let's see if GFS holds again

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I am away and just now catching up. But good luck with 12-16 there.

You were lurking all day . Dendy even made a post about it. You stsrted posting once the colder solutions took over there. It’s fine 

[OceanStWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The “meh” is because I think too many get addicted to the higher end outputs. When you mentally start expecting a major major snowstorm with over 1” of QPF and then reality smacks you back to half that, there’s an emotional letdown. 
 

But in an absolute sense, this is still a pretty solid event….and there’s still a chance for some banding surprises too. 

You have to look at where those  1" QPF maxes are located too. Do they make physical sense. The Reggie has them on the edge and equatorward of the DGZ saturation. The highest QPF is going to be underneath where there is saturation, not adjacent to it.

It's why the highest snow totals are typically west of the QPF max as modeled.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You were lurking all day . Dendy even made a post about it. You stsrted posting once the colder solutions took over there. It’s fine 

I checked in but I was out doing stuff all day. This place gets overwhelming at times. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not sure if this update was posted.  Latest BOX map

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I checked in but I was out doing stuff all day. This place gets overwhelming at times. 

Agree there . Looking forward to the snow. It’s been awhile . Enjoy 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I’m expecting about eight hours of light to moderate snow back this way.
To avoid disappointment, I’m setting my expectations at 3”-5”.  There are too many caution flags for me to expect more than that 90 miles inland.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not sure if this update was posted.  Latest BOX map

 

That’s ambitious for the deep interior!

[weatherwiz]

Threw this together earlier. While there is a strong idea for one (maybe two) fronto bands, it’s nearly impossible to know where they occur right now. I do think you’ll see 812” where it happens but not enough confidence where that occurs to highlight on a map. 
 

Also worried for some subsidence zones where snow growth and rates will be awful and that will hold totals lower somewhere. 
 

Of course any last minutes ticks in either direction have huge implications too 

 

[CoastalWx]

18z gfs looked like it reduced QPF too. For all the talk of euro cave, the rest of the guidance is also doing a hell of a cave toward it.

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not sure if this update was posted.  Latest BOX map

 

Maybe I’ll be surprised and that 3-4” line moves 25 miles southeast. The poetic snow map rule:

“You’re better off in Maine,
When the snow forecast shows rain,
In the Coastal Plain.”

LOL

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs looked like it reduced QPF too. For all the talk of euro cave, the rest of the guidance is also doing a hell of a cave toward it.

Ya that was a big drop on GFS, now euro is the wettest piece of guidance funny enough.. Fun little storm ..