As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[wx2fish]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro bumped NW, Big hit for EMATT.

Big bump. Atleast on the early low res graphics 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, dryslot said:

12:08pm

I deleted my message. I'm at work and tried popping on to take a quick peek. Not realizing what time it actually is. Good to hear though. Are we still not calling it a cave yet to the GFS?

[ineedsnow]

Euro cave

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ukie still sucks

Not that uncle is a go to model, but I still take it as a caution flag.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Not that uncle is a go to model, but I still take it as a caution flag.

meh Euro looking much better now

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Big bump. Atleast on the early low res graphics 

[weatherwiz]

does anyone have any H7 VV maps they can post. weathermodels blows

[ineedsnow]

big shift west.. good job Euro you did it!

[ineedsnow]

probably see one more shift like that.. usually if its wrong it will take a couple cycles to correct.. but made a big move to the GFS

[JC-CT]

Not a good performance from the euro. Call a spade a spade. Skynet was better though

[wxsniss]

Enough support for watches to be extended east at this point

[8611Blizz]

Jack pots emass. Scooter is back in it.

[dryslot]

Still a bit to far east for my liking, But it is what it is.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Not a good performance from the euro. Call a spade a spade. Skynet was better though

It did well last week in the SE US event but it also was having to tick NW late for the final 24-36, it was just that the NAM was so bad most did not realize it.  It may be having the same progressive bias down there again with this next one as its been ticking N now the last 2-3 runs

[ORH_wxman]

BOS gets hammered on that run. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Not a good performance from the euro. Call a spade a spade. Skynet was better though

Pathetic on Euro that’s 100% caving in my opinion 

[Typhoon Tip]

So it is ...  heh   true wow moment for us nerds ( LOL )

Wholesale capitulation really just happened.   ... Unprecedented in the storied history of the GFS vs Euro, whence the Euro concedes so vastly in favor of the GFS. 

If you place the 36 hour illustration of these two, 12z solutions, side by side, while considering their history in coverage of this event, their differences are so minor that you'd objectively have to consider this as > 90% correction of the Euro toward the GFS.

For all intents and purpose, total - I mean, they're never going to be 100% anyway.  This is like 90th percentile likeness at this point.    GFS left; Euro right

Not sure if this some how Euro diminishing quality returns, vs perhaps improvement in the GFS (grudgingly having to admit -).   They've both been thru with upgrade mill in recent decade. It's an interesting question.  I think also ... attribution is causing model performance overall to be impeded; compression is intrinsically more difficult on guidance technology, and we just seem to have more of that as a seasonal predicament.  

Either way, I've never seen the Euro gather up all its belongings, sell the farm and bodily move into the GFS' neighborhood ( and I mean like right next door! ) just 30 or 36 hours ahead of anything.

[78Blizzard]

GFS may be the new king, at least for the short term.  I wonder what changed for the Euro to cave so much on this run?

In any case, I look forward to a good 4-8" here in E MA. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So it is ...  heh   true wow moment for us nerds ( LOL )

Wholesale capitulation really just happened.   ... Unprecedented in the storied history of the GFS vs Euro, whence the Euro concedes so vastly in favor of the GFS. 

If you place the 36 hour illustration of these two, 12z solutions, side by side, while considering their history in coverage of this event, their differences are so minor that you'd objectively have to consider this as > 90% correction of the Euro toward the GFS.

For all intents and purpose, total - I mean, they're never going to be 100% anyway.  This is like 90th percentile likeness at this point.    GFS left; Euro right

Not sure if this Euro diminishing quality/returns, vs improvement in the GFS  ... they've both been thru with upgrade mill in recent decade. It's an interesting question.  I think also ... attribution is causing model performance overall to be impeded; compression is intrinsically more difficult on guidance technology, and we just seem to have more of that as a seasonal predicament.  

Either way, I've never seen the Euro gather up all its belongs and bodily move into the GFS' neighborhood ( and I mean like right next door! ) just 30 or 36 hours ahead of anything.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

USA! USA!    
although, the Euro croaked the GFS last week. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS gets hammered on that run. 

Verbatim they could be in the jackpot zone. I'm curious though if the Euro is a bit too far southeast with the heaviest banding. Not just saying that because of the known bias that the heaviest banding tends to be northwest of what models show but because the evolution of the storm makes sense for the banding to develop well northwest and then maybe collapse towards center, but not sure that happens in this case without lack of H7 development. 

I still also wonder if we see two bands develop. One well northwest that smokes Berkshires and northwest Connecticut and a second which would be from about BOS through ORH to Kevin and in between gets kind of screwed. I am a little nervous about this scenario. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Should be good ratios in W MA unless wee get into a baking powder subsidence situation.   

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

GFS may be the new king, at least for the short term.  I wonder what changed for the Euro to cave so much on this run?

In any case, I look forward to a good 4-8" here in E MA. 

Didn’t the Euro just smack around the GFS last week?  

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

USA! USA!    
although, the Euro croaked the GFS last week. 

So the series is tied 1-1?  Is it best if 5 or best if 7?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, mreaves said:

So the series is tied 1-1?  Is it best if 5 or best if 7?

Hopefully best of 7!

[HoarfrostHubb]

Marlboro/Bolton area looks prime

[dryslot]

Actually when i look at where H7 tracks, It may be pretty good up here, Spitting out .82" qpf with better then 10:1 ratios.

[weatherwiz]

GFS bufkit remains pretty impressive looking at ORH. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Euro jacks ray with 14” after all that advisory talk lmao 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro would prob be warning here, I’d take it