As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Some refuse to see the Forrest thru the trees, The models are ticking SE, These weaker scenarios are the cause.

Well there's also no denying the euro has been moving the other way, 06 was a big bump up in qpf

[MJO812]

Cmc also shifting southeast 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, JC-CT said:

We will have to see where we end up

It affects NNE though I think in terms of less 

[weatherwiz]

One thing to be careful of when using QPF to diagnose trends in the track is an increase/decrease in QPF can also be related to mlvl evolution. Yes that is also influenced on track but there are other factors to consider. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also shifting southeast 

and weaker

[JC-CT]

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve been planning on 8-12” so it’s all on track and has been. I still don’t see this as a cave . Euro was not good 

I think 8” as a floor is too aggressive. Not saying you won’t get that much, but as someone who is looking at this with kind of mediocre QPF from the Euro/NAM and some slight backing off on the GFS….given we still have 30 hours to go, I think a good forecast would hedge with a lower floor. Ratios will probably be good over interior so that will help some, but I’d want my forecast to cover a scenario where we get 0.4” of QPF with maybe like 13 to 1 ratios if we don’t get into the best stuff. 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing to be careful of using QPF to diagnose trends is an increase/decrease in QPF can also be related to mlvl evolution. Yes that is also influenced on track but there are other factors to consider. 

Qpf and temps are the things that actually matter though lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think 8” as a floor is too aggressive. Not saying you won’t get that much, but as someone who is looking at this with kind of mediocre QPF from the Euro/NAM and some slight backing off on the GFS….given we still have 30 hours to go, I think a good forecast would hedge with a lower floor. Ratios will probably be good over interior so that will help some, but I’d want my forecast to cover a scenario where we get 0.4” of QPF with maybe like 13 to 1 ratios if we don’t get into the best stuff. 

Just my opinion.. but I think you’re giving too much credence to the NAM.. and a lesser degree Euro. Both have been playing catch-up and have 1-2 more bumps left to get in line 

[Prismshine Productions]

Im thinking 3-6 for mine and Hippy's area

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just my opinion.. but I think you’re giving too much credence to the NAM.. and a lesser degree Euro. Both have been playing catch-up and have 1-2 more bumps left to get in line 

Will has called for a compromise solution this entire time

[ineedsnow]

GEFS also slightly east and weaker

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Qpf and temps are the things that actually matter though lol

I just edited the post...the wording was horrific  Hopefully anyone who read it understood what I was trying to say. Haven't finished my coffee yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Will has called for a compromise solution this entire time

I know and he was correct 

[Cold Miser]

Like most of these types of systems, I will be dancing on the edge...Maybe 3-4 for my spot, probably 3.

 

[Cold Miser]

Like most of these types of systems I will be dancing on the edge of garbage...Maybe 3-4 for my spot.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some refuse to see the Forrest thru the trees, The models are ticking SE, These weaker scenarios are the cause.

Yeah, this could still end up a lot of moderate snowfall rates with only small pocket of +SN. 
I’ve seen Lucy pull the ball away so many times over the years, with fast moving coastals,  that I’ll believe my forecast when I’m shoveling it.

[ineedsnow]

game on!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Im thinking 3-6 for mine and Hippy's area

That’s where I am leaning.  It would be nice to break the 5” we got in the December storm.

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, this could still end up a lot of moderate snowfall rates with only small pocket of +SN. 
I’ve seen Lucy pull the ball away so many times over the years, with fast moving coastals,  that I’ll believe my forecast when I’m shoveling it.

we take our 3-6 and be happy right? XD

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also shifting southeast 

 

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

and weaker

Shocking.

[ineedsnow]

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Shocking.

Take em up !! 

[Modfan2]

4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Like most of these types of systems, I will be dancing on the edge...Maybe 3-4 for my spot, probably 3.

 

I am with you, thinking 2-4 or easily could be 1-3; the best will be NW of us.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

we take our 3-6 and be happy right? XD

Yeah, I would say 3”+is a lock.

I mean, I would start the hand ringing if we see the Euro go east and weaker at 12z. 
 

[ineedsnow]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

At least most in the forum are guaranteed to get accumulating snow. How much how much? We just don’t know.  Just don’t know. 

[DavisStraight]

6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I am with you, thinking 2-4 or easily could be 1-3; the best will be NW of us.

I think you do better than that but probably best to be more conservative at this point.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just my opinion.. but I think you’re giving too much credence to the NAM.. and a lesser degree Euro. Both have been playing catch-up and have 1-2 more bumps left to get in line 

I’m not discounting someone getting higher amounts either. This is the type of system where I’d prob have a slightly larger range than I typically like to have. If someone rips in a mesoband for a bit, they’ll prob get 10” or even a little more…but there’s a distinct path to getting 4-5” too. 
 

I kind of hate using the 5-10 range but this is the type of storm I might use it. Unless we get a little bump back in the more organized direction on tonight’s 00z runs…if that happens then maybe I’d be more inclined to go with the higher floor. 
 

The huge uncertainty too is the ratios. This is a storm where going 10 to 1 in the interior might be low balling. I’ve seen storms bust on snow amounts even if QPF was pretty accurate because a large swath got fluff-bombed with 18 to 1 or 20 to 1 ratios. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

I think you do better than that but probably best to be more conservative at this point.

Isn’t he in northeast CT? 1-3 sounds quite a bit too low there. Even for the valleys. Don’t think elevation will play a huge role..maybe only in the first couple hours.