As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[jbenedet]

The reason why I’m on board with the cmc/Rgem because the GEFS temp anoms most resemble the warmth and location of the BZ on those op runs.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Nasty cutoff south of Boston but unfortunately it's likely it will be real, somewhere

Crushed.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z HRRR looks good.

You’re supposed to start with the srefs

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

You’re supposed to start with the srefs

Did they crush?

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The reason why I’m on board with the cmc/Rgem because the GEFS temp anoms most resemble the warmth and location of the BZ on those op runs.

Is the average normal temperature exactly 32?

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

Did they crush?

You need to ask @ineedsnow

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You need to ask @ineedsnow

I think they were a bit under the weather last night

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You need to ask @ineedsnow

He should've been all over them.

[dendrite]

HRRR has a nice banding signal here with the 0.85ish QPF. Bigly.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dendrite said:

You need to ask @ineedsnow

Just logging on lol busy morning today but will do my best 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Just logging on lol busy morning today but will do my best 

Do you post the maps with your phone all day and night , or PC?

[JC-CT]

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Just logging on lol busy morning today but will do my best 

Do they still make NoDoz? We used to wash them down with some Jolt.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR has a nice banding signal here with the 0.85ish QPF. Bigly.

Should be a bit better then 10:1 too

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

Should be a bit better then 10:1 too

Yeah that has a good 15:1 event total look to it verbatim. I wouldn’t go forecasting that, but someone will get into that zone.

[Patrick-02540]

28 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Thanks for posting this right below @ORH_wxman”no issues in coastal NH”.

Yea I know you guys wear snow goggles but I’m most aligned with the Rgem/CMC 

Some people wear snow goggles, but some other people wear flame goggles.

[JC-CT]

Imagine doubting the JMA

[Torch Tiger]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Heavy heavy heavy snow 

light event overall

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

light event overall

Wide area of 8-12 ain’t light son 

[dendrite]

This is the time of year where the torchin twins’ friendship gets dicey. Please hold each other now.

 

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you post the maps with your phone all day and night , or PC?

Either one depends if I'm working, out somewhere or home lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually comparing recent operational GFS runs...   the 18 to 00, to 06 continuity is exceptionally high tolerance actually.  Other than completely irrelevant, ultimately meaningless variance from run to run, those are indistinguishable from one another  (ha, does that sentence get the point across ? ) 

Pick a difference or we take your first born daughter?   Fine!  the QPF is increasing.  But beginning with 18z/54 hr --> 00z/48 hr --> 06z/42 hr ... that kind of continuity is too clad, and just "feels" like it's going to be more right than the Euro - it just does. 

But again ...I still hold some reservations about the upper ranges of QPF for all the reasons that are ad nauseam at this point -

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is the time of year where the torchin twins’ friendship gets dicey. Please hold each other now.

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR has a nice banding signal here with the 0.85ish QPF. Bigly.

Dont want to jinx us but I’ve been thinking we are lined up for a good band. 6-10 if it plays out that way.  And a coooold wed morning 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wide area of 8-12 ain’t light son 

Remember when some said no chance.. might not be us , but many are getting 8-12 in the Northeast

[HIPPYVALLEY]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He should've been all over them.

He died from sleep deprivation.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Could break double digits here. 
still leaning toward 6-8 though. 

[ineedsnow]

Nam a bit west and coming in stronger

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Nam a bit west and coming in stronger

12k is still a mess

[ariof]

34 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Nasty cutoff south of Boston but unfortunately it's likely it will be real, somewhere

Real, and spectacular.