As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Go Kart Mozart]

52 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Nam caved last night, euro this morning.  All hail the GFS?  And the Canadiens mom dieu .  And the Germans.  

I think the folks from our soon-to-be 51st state sniffed this out first.

[jbenedet]

It’ll be in low 40’s today and tomorrow in a good chunk of the sub forum and with the snow melt, weenie psychology will start melting too.

[Kitz Craver]

Color me quite surprised the euro 100% caved. Doesn’t happen too often 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

It’ll be in low 40’s in a good chunk of the sub forum and with the snow melt, weenie psychology will start melting too.

You think snow will fall and then melt?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Color me quite surprised the euro 100% caved. Doesn’t happen too often 

I’m not seeing this complete cave. It’s def moving NW but it still looks somewhat ragged and nothing like these bigger hits ala GFS. Euro tracks this well SE of ACK while GFS is over the cape. 

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not seeing this complete cave. It’s def moving NW but it still looks somewhat ragged and nothing like these bigger hits ala GFS. Euro tracks this well SE of ACK while GFS is over the cape. 

That’s fair, good point

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’ll be in low 40’s in a good chunk of the sub forum and with the snow melt, weenie psychology will start melting too.

Maybe there will be issues temperature wise when it starts. But temperatures will fall as the storm gets going. I think you saying a good chunk of the subform will have issues, not sure a good chunk will, but some will. But you've always been the bearer of Doom when it comes to temps And warming. We'll see how this plays out

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’ll be in low 40’s in a good chunk of the sub forum and with the snow melt, weenie psychology will start melting too.

Pope high on adrenochrome 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not gonna be paste there. Maybe right at the onset but quickly will go to powder. 

Dammit 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Color me quite surprised the euro 100% caved. Doesn’t happen too often 

The new Euro caves fairly often. Joe Mamas did not 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I will be sub freezing here basically from predawn on Sunday.    Aloft doesn’t look bad here

Rougher situation in SE Mass/RI and Coastal NH

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The new Euro caves fairly often. Joe Mamas did not 

Hey don't talk about my mama like that..lol

[JC-CT]

Kinda crazy how consistent the rgem has been, ngl

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Maybe there will be issues temperature wise when it starts. But temperatures will fall as the storm gets going. I think you saying a good chunk of the subform will have issues, not sure a good chunk will, but some will. But you've always been the bearer of Doom when it comes to temps And warming. We'll see how this plays out

When the pope pops his head from the palace balcony, the crowd typically points fingers and laughs. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hey don't talk about my mama like that..lol

“Your new euro is soooo fat…” oh wait…

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I will be sub freezing here basically from predawn on Sunday.    Aloft doesn’t look bad here

Rougher situation in SE Mass/RI and Coastal NH

Coastal NH will have almost zero issues. Maybe a little paste at the onset before the CF rapidly sinks SE. most of the heavier snow will be with temps in the 20s even down to north shore coastal MA…the battle zone for a consequential amount of paste prob starts closer to BOS on the coast and then moving south toward Scott. 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Kinda crazy how consistent the rgem has been, ngl

Sheesh

[George001]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The one time we need it to be mostly right, it completely throws up all over itself 

Euro was weak and strung out. Gfs is way better, it has a deeper low that goes over the cape.

[jbenedet]

15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Maybe there will be issues temperature wise when it starts. But temperatures will fall as the storm gets going. I think you saying a good chunk of the subform will have issues, not sure a good chunk will, but some will. But you've always been the bearer of Doom when it comes to temps And warming. We'll see how this plays out

I said DAW south and east. It’s a lot of people by population. Most of the region will get a good snowfall. Good storm.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Euro was weak and strung out. Gfs is way better, it has a deeper low that goes over the cape.

Still very big differences between the two. 12km NAM was a compromise of sorts but 3k looked more like euro…which is funny because yesterday the 3k looked a bit better. Now it’s the 12km. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Still very big differences between the two. 12km NAM was a compromise of sorts but 3k looked more like euro…which is funny because yesterday the 3k looked a bit better. Now it’s the 12km. 

Still thinking Reggie wrong?

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Sheesh

Thanks for posting this right below @ORH_wxman”no issues in coastal NH”.

Yea I know you guys wear snow goggles but I’m most aligned with the Rgem/CMC 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Thanks for posting this right below @ORH_wxman”no issues in coastal NH”.

Yea I know you guys wear snow goggles but I’m most aligned with the Rgem/CMC 

Even the rgem flashes to paste at PSM after maybe a few hours of 34/35 rasn.

[jbenedet]

Just now, dendrite said:

Even the rgem flashes to paste at PSM after maybe a few hours of 34/35 rasn.

Yea no kiddin’. This is basically what my first post was. Half of qpf to rain then a flip to snow. That’s my base case here.

But weenies can’t even handle that forecast…

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Thanks for posting this right below @ORH_wxman”no issues in coastal NH”.

Yea I know you guys wear snow goggles but I’m most aligned with the Rgem/CMC 

I wear these, actually

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea no kiddin’. This is basically what my first post was. Half of qpf to rain then a flip to snow. That’s my base case here.

But weenies can’t even handle that forecast…

You said snow melt, I don't see any snow melting here.

[Typhoon Tip]

50/50 average of the RGEM and Euro formulates a solution that fits both a track expectation, and the theoretic limitations, which are constrained by the total flow circumstance. Seems all guidance are somewhere in between those goal posts, anyway.

The RGEM and GFS intensity seems to exceed - by a little.    We can certainly get some fast deepening rates but I've not really seen low pressures translate across a chart as quickly as this one is modeled to do, regardless of source.  Keeping this less than those 10"+ totals wouldn't shock me.

On the other hand, the Euro, hesitatingly admitting ( I wouldn't call that overnight a true cave ), is more a sign that it won't coup and win a miss ( at least ).   Pistol to head,  ..it comes 60 .. 70% in the end, and the other side "leans" east for the rest. 

But that's still in principle just a blend of everything.   Most of the uncertainty in this - to me - is the amt that can fall by a cyclone that's moving near max possible velocity, one that also "should be" held down in intensity by the constraint of a compressed limitation.

[dryslot]

12z HRRR looks good.

[Damage In Tolland]

Heavy heavy heavy snow 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z HRRR looks good.

Nasty cutoff south of Boston but unfortunately it's likely it will be real, somewhere