As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/18/2025 at 5:44 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

Weird ranges again but the color range is 8-12

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What a copout map.....1-6" and 2-9"? Shit, my 5 year old daughter could do that.

[RCNYILWX]

  On 1/18/2025 at 5:48 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What a copout map.....1-6" and 2-9"? Shit, my 5 year old daughter could do that.

That's the 25th to 75th percentile ranges for those locations from the NBM distribution and including the NWS deterministic forecast. I really don't like that we're doing this, because as you and others noted, our forecast is still there represented by the standard color scales. It's a misnomer to call those maps with the 25th-75th percentile sample point ranges plotted "official NWS forecast".

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/18/2025 at 5:55 AM, RCNYILWX said:

That's the 25th to 75th percentile ranges for those locations from the NBM distribution and including the NWS deterministic forecast. I really don't like that we're doing this, because as you and others noted, our forecast is still there represented by the standard color scales. It's a misnomer to call those maps with the 25th-75th percentile sample point ranges plotted "official NWS forecast".

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk
 

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Okay, thanks. I figured I had to be missing something...confusing presentation.

[RCNYILWX]

  On 1/18/2025 at 6:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, thanks. I figured I had to be missing something...confusing presentation.

It should be labeled more clearly what the sample point ranges indicate. At my office, we've chosen to stick with the standard color curve ranges.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 1/18/2025 at 5:40 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

No surprise aly going 8-12 in Litchfield cty 

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Yeah but no model shows that and also I'm technically in New Haven County. The rich kid days of living in Watertown are long gone.

[The 4 Seasons]

NAMs are getting there, more amped and west..shocker

[Greg]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:00 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

NAMs are getting there, more amped and west..shocker

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Most of models including the Euro has this staying offshore. The only model that has it going over the Cape and island is the Canadien model and that is a very typical bias of it. Local mets are starting to push the heavier totals a little further eastward.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:29 AM, Greg said:

Most of models including the Euro has this staying offshore. The only model that has it going over the Cape and island is the Canadien model and that is a very typical bias of it. Local mets are starting to push the heavier totals a little further eastward.

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Reggie ticked a noticeable bit SE at 6z. Maybe 10-15 mi SE move

[Greg]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:33 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

Reggie ticked a noticeable bit SE at 6z. Maybe 10-15 mi SE move

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Exactly. It will slowly continue to do so. It's up against some pretty heavy hitter models.

[The 4 Seasons]

GFS looks like mainly noise, very similar. A tick west but still great for most. 

[Damage In Tolland]

All systems a go 

[SouthCoastMA]

alright now let's get a few messenger tics in the final 36 hrs

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 1/18/2025 at 11:02 AM, SouthCoastMA said:

alright now let's get a few messenger tics in the final 36 hrs

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Sandwich? You're gonna need a miracle down there man

[Modfan2]

Still thinking 2-4” here in my part of E CT; more to the North and West

[Sey-Mour Snow]

All hail Reggie ggem and gfs , looks like a 100% euro cave is coming wow… euro steadily amping and going west each run til go time seems probable - current trends aren’t good SE of 84 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like slop here maybe an inch or two at the end. Streak of bad luck rolls on here 

[moneypitmike]

Thinking 4-6 where I am at Pit2 is a reasonable bet.  Lower -end of that most likely.

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/18/2025 at 11:31 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like slop here maybe an inch or two at the end. Streak of bad luck rolls on here 

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And you know how the backlash"" works out on drying nw winds.  next

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/18/2025 at 11:47 AM, Torch Tiger said:

And you know how the backlash"" works out on drying nw winds.  next

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fast system moving NNE, yeah that never pans out. the back edge usually pivots and slides NE . I'm expecting 0" now that the euro caved

[JC-CT]

  On 1/18/2025 at 11:29 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

All hail Reggie ggem and gfs , looks like a 100% euro cave is coming wow… euro steadily amping and going west each run til go time seems probable - current trends aren’t good SE of 84 

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I remain somewhat skeptical of the gems thermals

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Final confirmation of a massive cave unfolding by euro .. hope Rgem and gfs go east at 12z for the sake of this forum.. off to the gym 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 11:56 AM, JC-CT said:

I remain somewhat skeptical of the gems thermals

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Ya I’m skeptical of it being that far west, GEFS going west has me a bit shook, I hope we messenger east .. just get us around 6” and the cold after and I’m happy, will suck to see an 8-16” band in the berkshires but oh well 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 11:56 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Final confirmation of a massive cave unfolding by euro .. hope Rgem and gfs go easy at 12z for the sake of this forum.. off to the gym 

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That looks pretty good for the majority of the posters here 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 11:57 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

That looks pretty good for the majority of the posters here 

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Not the SE Folks , we are still in the game but it’s getting close for comfort 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX 5AM forecast 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

This ain’t Joe Mama’s Euro anymore. 

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This ain’t Joe Mama’s Euro anymore. 

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we cave

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This ain’t Joe Mama’s Euro anymore. 

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So.. are we still on for 4-8 for must of CT? With the Euro coming around, might our numbers go up at all?

[dryslot]

06z Euro caved to the other guidance finally, It was by itself for the last couple days.

 

[dryslot]