As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That precip shield and thermal field is quite different. Don’t just look at the red L. 

I do when I need sleep and felt like crap tonight 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The gfs is probably best case for most of this forum. Wide swath of 4-8”

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The gfs is probably best case for most of this forum. Wide swath of 4-8”

It’s a wide swath of 8-12”+ verbatim but ya it is best case

[ineedsnow]

CMC looks the same through 36

[Typhoon Tip]

Still think you guys are looking too closely for details, which are gonna be different at this range and this particular situation from run to run … which are really too minute to signify much 

I was looking for wholesale changes… like a collapse southeast by 150 miles on the track and so forth because that’s what’s really at stake. You’ve got a very trustworthy guidance source in fact the most trustworthy guidance source that completely whiffing the area I think that’s what we should be looking for big changes 

[ineedsnow]

CMC amped

[ineedsnow]

hell of a run for interior SNE

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC amped

Slightly southeast

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

hell of a run for interior SNE

Moral of the story RGEM and GGEM, and GFS largely stayed exactly the same just some noise and bumps east 

[Ginx snewx]

Oh @OceanStWx-86 ubars wut? 4 per hr?

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Slightly southeast

kuchie is 18 here lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Fisher is amped 

(From his X feed…still can’t get it to embed right)

”Where this banding sets up, I'd think 10-14" is reasonable. Fast moving system but really powdery high-ratio snow. Likely toward Worcester Hills -> NW”

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1880464646265794742?s=46&t=096JqkIpgJTvSWddnDYqdA
 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

kuchie is 18 here lol

10:1 is over a foot for you and me

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fisher is amped 

(From his X feed…still can’t get it to embed right)

”Where this banding sets up, I'd think 10-14" is reasonable. Fast moving system but really powdery high-ratio snow. Likely toward Worcester Hills -> NW”

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1880464646265794742?s=46&t=096JqkIpgJTvSWddnDYqdA
 

he's usually really meh with snow events.. that's a good sign this time

[ineedsnow]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

10:1 is over a foot for you and me

we can hope

[ariof]

Going to sleep.

Will know by the page count (currently 53) if the Euro has followed the NAM offshore or not.

[ineedsnow]

west of 18z   I'll be shocked if the Euro is still way east

[The 4 Seasons]

Question for those in the know. Does this site still work for getting the rgem early? It has an option for using the regional but only for 0-24 hours but I can't seem to change that. 

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[ineedsnow]

we increase

[ineedsnow]

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Moral of the story RGEM and GGEM, and GFS largely stayed exactly the same just some noise and bumps east 

All of the "noise" was se.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Jesus...zip, thud-

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Question for those in the know. Does this site still work for getting the rgem early? It has an option for using the regional but only for 0-24 hours but I can't seem to change that. 

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

It works beyond 24h. I don’t think it’s much faster than pivotal these days. It used to be the first one out along with the old black and white maps from the environmental Canada site…but pivotal updates really fast now. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I hated those maps so much

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All of the "noise" was se.

Which is great for many.. Going to need more than that noise to get to the euro and the “only advisory snows” .. interesting battle 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Which is great for many.. Going to need more than that noise to get to the euro and the “only advisory snows” .. interesting battle 

Advisory to low end warning, yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I originally said only advisory, but capitulated to Will's counter.

[Torch Tiger]

27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

he's usually really meh with snow events.. that's a good sign this time

Maybe 24"?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Maybe 24"?

18-24"..weenies always focusing on the high end.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Ukie bumped west and beefed up precip