As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[dendrite]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

ya we take.. feeling like crap tonight might have to sleep soon myself

How many straight all-nighters?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dendrite said:

How many straight all-nighters?

Finally may need to put down the mountain dew and meth…and get 4hrs of shut eye.

[brooklynwx99]

the RGEM has 3”/hr rates over E PA. i’m almost tossing on that alone. this system isn’t capable of that

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

How many straight all-nighters?

lol not many anymore.. I can still do pretty good on 4 to 5 hours of sleep though.. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same...maybe some spot 6" amounts.

I don’t think that’s unreasonable at all. A more splotchy radar depiction like Dr. No and more of the board will be reclaiming their time like I have this past week. 

Seriously though, until there’s a meaningful move by the Euro toward a better put together system it’s a significant red flag at this stage.

A compromise is a win, and a GFS like result is a triumph. A Euro win is more of the same but would add legitimate deep winter of yore feel to the week as the Arctic hounds are unleashed (which I know few care about but I do).

[powderfreak]

A large geography of people are going to see snow falling with this system.  1-6” over a large geographic area… maybe spot 6-8” in the best collocated areas of mid-level lift and snow growth.

[Prismshine Productions]

Got a pounding migraine so turning in, see yall either late 6z or the early 12z suite

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Got a pounding migraine so turning in, see yall either late 6z or the early 12z suite

Real migraine … or just a bad headache 

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Reggie is definitely no where near as zonked as prior runs and it’s further east.  Keep in mind it doesn’t have much usefulness beyond  24-36 hours usually.

I didn’t think it was a huge move but it def went a tick east. I do expect further nudges east since I don’t expect it to win a 90% compromise with the euro. 
 

We’ll see what GFS does here in a minute. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A large geography of people are going to see snow falling with this system.  1-6” over a large geographic area… maybe spot 6-8” in the best collocated areas of mid-level lift and snow growth.

Yup.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I didn’t think it was a huge move but it def went a tick east. I do expect further nudges east since I don’t expect it to win a 90% compromise with the euro. 
 

We’ll see what GFS does here in a minute. 

I saw 5 mb shallower and negligible differences - irrelevant - track changes  

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS looks a little more robust if anything early on 

[ineedsnow]

GFS is amped

[ineedsnow]

close to the RGEM

[ineedsnow]

pretty good run for most

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

close to the RGEM

No

[8611Blizz]

Boston bullseye!!

[Typhoon Tip]

Ends up essentially unchanged 

[CoastalWx]

Looks a little east

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs looks a bit east and colder to me. I’d happily take that here 

[dryslot]

Yup, A tic.

[CoastalWx]

Messenger 

[Sn0waddict]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

close to the RGEM

Nah not really. At least for us coastal folks where 50 miles makes a huge difference.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS is amped

 

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

close to the RGEM

 

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

pretty good run for most

Youneedsleep

[Typhoon Tip]

Too focused looking for minute differences that don’t make for anything significant other than noise

[ORH_wxman]

Not a big move but a tick east and colder for those who were on the line on the 12z and 18z runs. 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

close to the RGEM

Go to sleep.  You’re vomiting all over yourself.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

No

close enough

[78Blizzard]

GFS not caving.  Almost 1" of qpf here in E MA.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

close enough

That precip shield and thermal field is quite different. Don’t just look at the red L.